Sparta Rotterdam vs Groningen – 31 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Jan 31 · 20:00 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam 6th · 32 pts · 20 played LWWWW

First leg2–0 2–0Full time

Groningen 8th · 31 pts · 20 played WDDWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Groningen. Sparta Rotterdam had 6.2 days of rest, Groningen 6.3 and had to travel 202 km.

Away travel202 kmRest days6.2 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sparta Rotterdam44%

Draw26%

Groningen30%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.26

Sparta Rotterdam43%

Draw27%

Groningen30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Sparta Rotterdam43%

Draw26%

Groningen31%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.28

Sparta Rotterdam37%

Draw26%

Groningen37%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.41

Sparta Rotterdam44%

Draw27%

Groningen29%

Expected goals 1.53 – 1.20

Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsSander van der Eijk

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.19
Matches 52

Team strength

Sparta Rotterdam

Groningen

25 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 30

32 AttackIn forecast 41

17 DefenceIn forecast 21

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Groningen

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta Rotterdam

Groningen

1.25 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.64

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.09

-0.14 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

75% Scored inContext 75%

40% Clean sheetsContext 35%

12.65 ShotsContext 15.60

4.55 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.37

36% On target shareContext 39%

8.35 Shots in the boxContext 8.95

67% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 9%

1.58 OffsidesContext 1.94

16.80 Shots allowedContext 10.70

6.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.35 BlocksContext 2.71

4.74 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

71% Save rateContext 67%

46% PossessionIn forecast 52%

380 PassesContext 418

302 Accurate passesContext 337

80% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.93 Team ratingContext 6.84

8.55 FoulsContext 10.75

10.35 Fouls sufferedContext 10.55

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.65

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 20 and 20 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.98

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.78

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 40%

13.30 ShotsContext 17.80

4.90 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

37% On target shareContext 34%

8.80 Shots in the boxContext 10.30

67% Box shareContext 60%

8% ConversionContext 7%

2.00 OffsidesContext 1.75

16.00 Shots allowedContext 9.90

6.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.80 BlocksContext 2.75

5.40 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

81% Save rateContext 66%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

410 PassesContext 449

331 Accurate passesContext 370

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

7.02 Team ratingContext 6.86

9.60 FoulsContext 9.70

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest6.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km96 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Groningen

Rest6.3 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel202 km104 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sparta Rotterdam	Groningen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Jan	6.3Eredivisie 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	202 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	96 km	104 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Drommel(G)

5T. Quintero 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

6P. Clement 8J. Kitolano

11S. Mito 10A. Santos 7M. van Bergen

9T. Lauritsen

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Groningen Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Vaessen(G)

43M. Peersman 4D. Janse 3T. Blokzijl 5M. Rente

14J. Schreuders 18T. Land

17D. van der Werff 26T. van Bergen 10Y. Taha

9B. Willumsson

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sparta Rotterdam Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Groningen Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sparta Rotterdam+1.0 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Groningen-0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Sparta Rotterdam · Home 1.40points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-4
Scored: 1.10
Conceded: 1.80

Groningen · Away 1.60points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 5-1-4
Scored: 1.30
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam	Groningen
Utrecht	W 1–0 AW 2–1 H	W 1–0 A
Feyenoord	W 4–3 AL 0–4 H	L 0–1 H
Heracles	W 2–0 HL 0–3 A	W 4–0 H
FC Volendam	W 1–0 A	W 3–0 H
Heerenveen	L 0–3 H	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
NAC Breda	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 HW 2–1 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–3 A	L 0–2 A
Fortuna Sittard	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 HW 2–1 A
PEC Zwolle	L 0–1 A	D 2–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	L 1–4 A
Telstar	W 1–0 H	W 2–0 H
Ajax	D 3–3 H	L 0–2 A
Twente	L 1–5 H	D 1–1 H
Excelsior	W 1–0 A	W 2–0 A
GO Ahead Eagles	W 3–0 A	D 1–1 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–6 A	L 2–4 A
Points	29 of 57 · 1.53 per game	31 of 57 · 1.63 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Sparta Rotterdam wins0 draws1 Groningen wins

Goals per game1.00 – 0.33 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets67% · 33%

19 Oct 2025Groningen0–2Sparta Rotterdam
2 Feb 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–0Groningen
9 Nov 2024Groningen1–0Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sparta Rotterdam	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.25	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	1.20
Match goals	2.95	2.60	2.84
Over 1.5	65%	85%
Over 2.5	50%	45%	54%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	35%	45%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	35%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	20	20

	Sparta Rotterdam	Groningen	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.20
Conceded per game	1.20	1.00
Match goals	2.30	2.20	2.84
Over 1.5	50%	90%
Over 2.5	30%	30%	54%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	58%
Clean sheets	40%	40%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sparta Rotterdam	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	4.56	6.26
Corners conceded	7.11	4.16
Match total	11.67	10.42	10.25
Over 8.5	94% 17/18	68% 13/19
Over 9.5	78% 14/18	42% 8/19
Over 10.5	67% 12/18	37% 7/19
Cards
Cards	1.90	1.75
Opponent cards	1.85	1.85
Match total	3.75	3.60	3.56
Over 3.5	60% 12/20	50% 10/20
Over 4.5	35% 7/20	25% 5/20

	Sparta Rotterdam	Groningen	League
Corners
Corners won	5.88	7.89
Corners conceded	7.25	3.22
Match total	13.13	11.11	10.25
Over 8.5	100% 8/8	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	88% 7/8	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	88% 7/8	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.30
Opponent cards	1.60	2.10
Match total	3.70	3.40	3.56
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Sander van der Eijk Netherlands · 52 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.44league 3.35

Red cards0.33league 0.20

Cards 5+33%league 30%

Fouls22.5league 21.7

Penalties0.19league 0.27

Home wins46%league 44%

Sparta Rotterdam3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3 Pens for · against2 · 1 Reds1

W12 Apr 25H · Heerenveen3–11
D11 Aug 24H · Heracles0–01
W28 Oct 23H · Waalwijk2–03

Groningen2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.5 Pens for · against1 · 0 Reds1

L11 May 25A · AZ Alkmaar0–32
D28 Jan 25A · Heracles1–14

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.