Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sparta Rotterdam
12th · 5 pts · 6 played
WDLDL
0–4Full time
Heerenveen
11th · 6 pts · 6 played
DLDLD
Our take
Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.
Heerenveen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam had 5.9 days of rest, Heerenveen 6.2 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days5.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sparta Rotterdam45%
Draw24%
Heerenveen31%
Sparta Rotterdam39%
Draw26%
Heerenveen35%
Sparta Rotterdam45%
Draw24%
Heerenveen32%
Sparta Rotterdam37%
Draw24%
Heerenveen39%
Sparta Rotterdam46%
Draw24%
Heerenveen31%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsRobin Hensgens
- Cards per match 3.1
- Penalties per match 0.06
- Matches 33
Team strength
Sparta RotterdamHeerenveen
20
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
31
32
AttackIn forecast
36
17
DefenceIn forecast
40
26
Form indexContext
10
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeerenveen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamHeerenveen
1.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.17
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
0.95
2.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.75
-0.09
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
83%
Scored inContext
67%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
13.50
ShotsContext
14.50
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
37%
On target shareContext
38%
9.67
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
71%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
16.67
Shots allowedContext
16.67
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.83
5.33
BlocksContext
5.17
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
66%
Save rateContext
72%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
387
PassesContext
505
316
Accurate passesContext
431
82%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.84
10.00
FoulsContext
8.33
10.67
Fouls sufferedContext
9.50
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.07
80%
Scored inContext
60%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
14.10
ShotsContext
13.40
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
28%
On target shareContext
37%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
70%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.57
16.90
Shots allowedContext
17.40
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
4.70
BlocksContext
5.70
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
63%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
390
PassesContext
482
319
Accurate passesContext
407
82%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.50
FoulsContext
8.70
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
9.20
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
WDLDL
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km174 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 26 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected
Heerenveen
DLDLD
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel151 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 3 pts vs 9.1 for an average club · -4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Heerenveen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 6.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 174 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20.9 | 20.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1M. Brouwer(G)
5B. Kuipers
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2Lushendry Edward Martes
8C. Hatenboer
6J. Baas
11J. Ideho
10I. Babadi
7C. Terho
9Milan Zonneveld
Heerenveen
Confirmed XI
22B. Klaverboer(G)
19V. Zagaritis
3M. Willemsen
4S. Kersten
45O. Braude
14L. Smans
16M. Linday
7M. Rivera
36N. Courtens
20J. Trenskow
9D. Vente
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heerenveen
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Heerenveen-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
0.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Heerenveen · Away
1.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 H |
| Telstar | W 3–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Points | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Sparta Rotterdam wins0 draws3 Heerenveen wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.80
Over 2.580%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets0% · 40%
- 28 Feb 2026Heerenveen2–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 14 Dec 2025Sparta Rotterdam0–3Heerenveen
- 12 Apr 2025Sparta Rotterdam3–1Heerenveen
- 26 Oct 2024Heerenveen2–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 27 Aug 2023Heerenveen1–3Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.67 | 1.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.83 | 2.67 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 50% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 4.10 | 2.30 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.17 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 13.67 | 11.00 | 10.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 6/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 6/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 83% 5/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 0% 0/6 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Heerenveen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.70 | 6.30 | |
| Match total | 12.40 | 11.50 | 10.70 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.58 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Robin Hensgens Netherlands · 33 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.94league 2.61
Red cards0.18league 0.05
Cards 5+18%league 13%
Fouls22.0league 20.6
Penalties0.06league 0.21
Home wins39%league 29%
Sparta Rotterdam6 with this referee
Record3-2-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D5 Apr 26A · NAC Breda0–03
- L14 Dec 25H · Heerenveen0–31
- W19 Oct 25A · Groningen2–02
- W23 Aug 25A · GO Ahead Eagles3–02
- W6 Apr 25H · NEC Nijmegen2–00
Heerenveen7 with this referee
Record5-0-2
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W11 Feb 26A · GO Ahead Eagles3–10
- W14 Dec 25A · Sparta Rotterdam3–02
- L13 Sep 25A · Feyenoord0–12
- L14 May 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–10
- W19 Apr 25H · Almere City FC2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam6 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
4
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
5
76-90
Heerenveen6 games · scored 7 · conceded 9
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 15 · conceded 26
2
1
0-15
1
4
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
9
76-90
Heerenveen10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
