Sparta Rotterdam vs Heracles – 11 Jan 2026

Eredivisie Knockout phase Sun, Jan 11 · 15:45 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam 10th · 23 pts · 17 played DLWLW

First leg0–3 2–0Full time

Heracles 18th · 14 pts · 17 played WDDLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Sparta Rotterdam had 21 days of rest, Heracles 22 and had to travel 157 km.

Away travel157 kmRest days21 · 22Matches / 14d0 · 0

Sparta Rotterdam49%

Draw26%

Heracles25%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.11

Sparta Rotterdam49%

Draw26%

Heracles25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Sparta Rotterdam49%

Draw26%

Heracles25%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.11

Sparta Rotterdam42%

Draw27%

Heracles31%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.25

Sparta Rotterdam49%

Draw26%

Heracles25%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.10

Over 2.5 52% Both score 55% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 28

Team strength

Sparta Rotterdam

Heracles

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 15

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 9

32 AttackIn forecast 7

17 DefenceIn forecast 10

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

Heracles

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta Rotterdam

Heracles

1.06 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.53

1.82 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.59

1.37 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83

-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.35

71% Scored inContext 65%

35% Clean sheetsContext 6%

12.53 ShotsContext 11.00

4.35 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.07

35% On target shareContext 38%

8.41 Shots in the boxContext 7.50

69% Box shareContext 64%

9% ConversionContext 14%

1.55 OffsidesContext 1.64

16.82 Shots allowedContext 17.06

6.75 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.53

4.47 BlocksContext 5.50

4.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.82

69% Save rateContext 59%

46% PossessionIn forecast 43%

379 PassesContext 334

302 Accurate passesContext 258

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.89 Team ratingContext 6.76

8.29 FoulsContext 12.06

10.29 Fouls sufferedContext 11.41

1.71 Yellow cardsContext 1.94

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.42

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

-0.45 Goals minus xGContext +0.58

70% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 0%

12.80 ShotsContext 11.20

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.22

35% On target shareContext 42%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 8.67

72% Box shareContext 68%

8% ConversionContext 18%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.63

15.30 Shots allowedContext 14.50

6.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.20

4.20 BlocksContext 3.67

4.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

75% Save rateContext 58%

49% PossessionIn forecast 45%

393 PassesContext 337

316 Accurate passesContext 260

80% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.73

9.10 FoulsContext 11.40

11.20 Fouls sufferedContext 11.90

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Rotterdam

Rest21 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Heracles

Rest22 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel157 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heracles
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	21Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Dec	22Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	157 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 1	0 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Drommel(G)

5T. Quintero 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

8A. Santos 6J. Kitolano

7M. van Bergen 10Vito van Crooij 11S. Mito

9T. Lauritsen

Heracles Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16T. Jansink(G)

24I. Mesík 18A. Van Hoorenbeeck 4D. Mirani 23M. te Wierik

13J. Žambůrek 70A. Hrustić

73W. Ould-Chikh 25L. Zeefuik 14E. Ahlstrand

19L. Kulenović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sparta Rotterdam Absences are shown before kick-off

Heracles Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Heracles+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Sparta Rotterdam · Home 1.22points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 3-2-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Heracles · Away 0.44points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-7
Scored: 0.89
Conceded: 2.56

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Sparta Rotterdam	Heracles
FC Volendam	W 1–0 A	L 0–3 A
Heerenveen	L 0–3 H	L 0–3 H
NAC Breda	W 1–0 H	L 1–2 A
NEC Nijmegen	L 1–3 A	L 1–4 H
Fortuna Sittard	D 1–1 H	D 1–1 A
PEC Zwolle	L 0–1 A	W 8–2 H
AZ Alkmaar	L 0–1 H	L 1–2 H
Telstar	W 1–0 H	D 1–1 H
Groningen	W 2–0 A	L 0–4 A
Ajax	D 3–3 H	L 0–2 A
Twente	L 1–5 H	L 1–2 A
Excelsior	W 1–0 A	W 2–1 A
Feyenoord	L 0–4 H	L 0–7 H
GO Ahead Eagles	W 3–0 A	W 4–2 H
Utrecht	W 2–1 H	L 0–4 A
PSV Eindhoven	L 1–6 A	L 3–4 A
Points	23 of 48 · 1.44 per game	11 of 48 · 0.69 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

1 Sparta Rotterdam wins2 draws1 Heracles wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.00 Over 2.525% Both scored25% Clean sheets50% · 50%

27 Sep 2025Heracles3–0Sparta Rotterdam
11 Jan 2025Heracles1–1Sparta Rotterdam
11 Aug 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–0Heracles
2 Dec 2023Heracles0–1Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heracles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.06	1.53
Conceded per game	1.82	2.59
Match goals	2.88	4.12	2.77
Over 1.5	65%	100%
Over 2.5	53%	82%	52%
Over 3.5	29%	41%
Both teams scored	35%	59%	55%
Clean sheets	35%	6%
Failed to score	29%	35%
Games	17	17

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heracles	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	2.00
Conceded per game	1.20	2.60
Match goals	2.20	4.60	2.77
Over 1.5	50%	100%
Over 2.5	30%	80%	52%
Over 3.5	20%	40%
Both teams scored	30%	70%	55%
Clean sheets	40%	0%
Failed to score	30%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heracles	League
Corners
Corners won	4.29	4.41
Corners conceded	7.24	6.47
Match total	11.53	10.88	10.20
Over 8.5	94% 16/17	76% 13/17
Over 9.5	76% 13/17	59% 10/17
Over 10.5	65% 11/17	41% 7/17
Cards
Cards	1.82	2.06
Opponent cards	1.94	1.94
Match total	3.76	4.00	3.55
Over 3.5	59% 10/17	41% 7/17
Over 4.5	41% 7/17	35% 6/17

	Sparta Rotterdam	Heracles	League
Corners
Corners won	5.40	4.90
Corners conceded	7.10	6.00
Match total	12.50	10.90	10.20
Over 8.5	100% 10/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	90% 9/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	80% 8/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.00	2.20
Opponent cards	2.00	1.80
Match total	4.00	4.00	3.55
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.68league 3.32

Red cards0.07league 0.22

Cards 5+32%league 31%

Fouls23.4league 21.6

Penalties0.18league 0.30

Home wins50%league 46%

Sparta Rotterdam3 with this referee

Record0-1-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7 Pens for · against0 · 1

L24 Nov 24H · AZ Alkmaar1–23
L26 Oct 24A · Heerenveen0–21
D17 Aug 24A · Twente1–10

Heracles2 with this referee

Record1-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D20 Jan 24H · FC Volendam1–11
W26 Nov 23A · Almere City FC5–03

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.