Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sparta Rotterdam
6th · 36 pts · 22 played
WWWWD
First leg1–3
1–1Full time
NEC Nijmegen
4th · 41 pts · 22 played
WWWWL
Our take
It was too close to call.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 27). Sparta Rotterdam had 10 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 6 and had to travel 95 km.
Away travel95 kmRest days10 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 2
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen38%
Sparta Rotterdam35%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen37%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen38%
Sparta Rotterdam29%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen45%
Sparta Rotterdam36%
Draw27%
NEC Nijmegen37%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJannick van der Laan
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 31
Team strength
Sparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
39
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
32
AttackIn forecast
37
17
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamNEC Nijmegen
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.59
1.64
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.73
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.81
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+0.78
77%
Scored inContext
95%
41%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.55
ShotsContext
15.86
4.55
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.68
36%
On target shareContext
42%
8.27
Shots in the boxContext
9.86
68%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.62
OffsidesContext
2.39
16.14
Shots allowedContext
11.50
6.24
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.86
4.50
BlocksContext
2.45
4.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.29
71%
Save rateContext
66%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
390
PassesContext
430
312
Accurate passesContext
345
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.95
8.59
FoulsContext
11.18
10.68
Fouls sufferedContext
11.77
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
1.73
0.05
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.88
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.92
90%
Scored inContext
100%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.30
ShotsContext
16.70
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.10
41%
On target shareContext
43%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
70%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
17%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.38
14.80
Shots allowedContext
12.70
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.30
BlocksContext
3.10
4.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
78%
Save rateContext
65%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
420
PassesContext
420
340
Accurate passesContext
336
81%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.90
9.30
FoulsContext
10.40
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.50
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest10 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km282 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
NEC Nijmegen
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel95 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 10Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 6Eredivisie 2025-2026, 11 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 95 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 282 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5T. Quintero
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2Lushendry Edward Martes
6P. Clement
8J. Kitolano
11S. Mito
10A. Santos
7M. van Bergen
9T. Lauritsen
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
4A. Kaplan
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
2B. Pereira
10T. Chery
19W. Willumsson
30B. Linssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.5 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- NEC Nijmegen-0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.64
NEC Nijmegen · Away
1.64points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-3
- Scored
- 2.45
- Conceded
- 1.91
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | L 2–3 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Feyenoord | W 4–3 AL 0–4 H | W 4–2 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 1–0 A | W 3–2 A |
| Heerenveen | L 0–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| NAC Breda | W 1–0 H | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H |
| PEC Zwolle | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 0–1 H | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Telstar | W 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Ajax | D 3–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| Twente | L 1–5 H | D 3–3 H |
| Excelsior | W 1–0 A | W 5–0 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 1–6 A | L 3–5 H |
| Points | 36 of 63 · 1.71 per game | 38 of 63 · 1.81 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
1 Sparta Rotterdam wins2 draws2 NEC Nijmegen wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.40
Over 2.520%
Both scored60%
Clean sheets20% · 20%
- 29 Nov 2025NEC Nijmegen3–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 6 Apr 2025Sparta Rotterdam2–0NEC Nijmegen
- 15 Dec 2024NEC Nijmegen1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 24 Feb 2024NEC Nijmegen2–0Sparta Rotterdam
- 1 Sep 2023Sparta Rotterdam1–1NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 2.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.64 | 1.73 | |
| Match goals | 2.95 | 4.32 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 95% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 86% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 73% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 82% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 23% | 5% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 4.60 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 90% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 100% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.85 | 5.24 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.85 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 11.70 | 9.53 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 95% 19/20 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 15/20 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 65% 13/20 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.82 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.18 | |
| Match total | 3.82 | 4.04 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 14/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.25 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.88 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 13.13 | 10.33 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 88% 7/8 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.80 | 3.51 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jannick van der Laan Netherlands · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.30
Red cards0.06league 0.20
Cards 5+29%league 31%
Fouls23.1league 21.6
Penalties0.16league 0.25
Home wins52%league 43%
Sparta Rotterdam4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W11 Jan 26H · Heracles2–01
- L24 Nov 24H · AZ Alkmaar1–23
- L26 Oct 24A · Heerenveen0–21
- D17 Aug 24A · Twente1–10
NEC Nijmegen2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- L21 Sep 25A · Heerenveen2–32
- L27 Apr 25A · Heerenveen0–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam22 games · scored 29 · conceded 36
3
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
7
31-45
4
7
46-60
5
10
61-75
9
7
76-90
NEC Nijmegen22 games · scored 57 · conceded 38
8
5
0-15
5
5
16-30
8
11
31-45
12
8
46-60
10
4
61-75
14
5
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 28 · conceded 18
5
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
7
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
