Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle – 4 Sep 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 5 Fri, Sep 4 · 19:00 Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Sparta Rotterdam 12th · 4 pts · 4 played LWDL

2–2Full time

PEC Zwolle 13th · 3 pts · 4 played LLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam had 6.1 days of rest, PEC Zwolle 6 and had to travel 128 km.

Away travel128 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Sparta Rotterdam49%

Draw24%

PEC Zwolle27%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.22

Sparta Rotterdam47%

Draw25%

PEC Zwolle28%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Sparta Rotterdam49%

Draw24%

PEC Zwolle27%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.22

Sparta Rotterdam42%

Draw25%

PEC Zwolle34%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.37

Sparta Rotterdam49%

Draw23%

PEC Zwolle27%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.26

Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Rotterdam)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsStan Teuben

Cards per match 3.3
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 3

Team strength

Sparta Rotterdam

PEC Zwolle

20 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

18 Current StrengthIn forecast 16

32 AttackIn forecast 17

17 DefenceIn forecast 14

28 Form indexContext 25

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sparta Rotterdam

Attack—

Defense risk—

PEC Zwolle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sparta Rotterdam

PEC Zwolle

1.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

1.76 xGVia Att/Def 1.20

2.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

-0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

75% Scored inContext 75%

0% Clean sheetsContext 25%

12.50 ShotsContext 11.00

5.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

32% On target shareContext 32%

8.75 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

69% Box shareContext 62%

14% ConversionContext 9%

3.00 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.50 Shots allowedContext 20.00

3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.25

5.00 BlocksContext 6.00

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.50

69% Save rateContext 72%

48% PossessionIn forecast 38%

407 PassesContext 307

333 Accurate passesContext 223

82% Pass accuracyContext 72%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.25 FoulsContext 11.75

11.75 Fouls sufferedContext 9.75

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.25

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.25

This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.60

1.45 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.74 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.82

-0.25 Goals minus xGContext -0.24

60% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 20%

12.50 ShotsContext 10.50

3.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

26% On target shareContext 31%

8.70 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

69% Box shareContext 60%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.40

15.60 Shots allowedContext 17.40

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.60

4.20 BlocksContext 4.70

3.63 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

66% Save rateContext 61%

47% PossessionIn forecast 43%

390 PassesContext 352

319 Accurate passesContext 271

82% Pass accuracyContext 77%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.61

10.50 FoulsContext 11.50

11.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.00

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sparta Rotterdam LWDL

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 28 · 4 pts vs 6.7 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected

L29 AugA · Excelsior1–21.0 xPts
D22 AugH · Utrecht3–31.4 xPts
W14 AugA · Telstar3–10.8 xPts
L9 AugH · Feyenoord0–10.9 xPts

PEC Zwolle LLWL

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel128 km102 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 25 · 3 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected

L29 AugH · NEC Nijmegen1–31.1 xPts
W22 AugA · Heerenveen2–00.7 xPts
L16 AugA · Twente1–30.6 xPts
L9 AugH · Ajax0–20.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sparta Rotterdam	PEC Zwolle
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Aug	6Eredivisie 2026-2027, 29 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	128 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	102 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	9	8.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sparta Rotterdam Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1M. Brouwer(G)

5B. Kuipers 4R. Martins Indi 3M. Young 2Lushendry Edward Martes

8C. Hatenboer 6J. Baas

11M. van Bergen 10S. Mito 7C. Terho

9Milan Zonneveld

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

PEC Zwolle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1J. Schendelaar(G)

2S. Floranus 24N. Viergever 28S. Graves 3O. Aertssen

8T. Sommer 30R. Thomas

22I. Cissoko 25T. Oosting 11D. Mbayo

10Koen Kostons

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sparta Rotterdam Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

PEC Zwolle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sparta Rotterdam+0.4 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
PEC Zwolle-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Sparta Rotterdam · Home 0.50points per game · 2 home games

W-D-L: 0-1-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 2.00

PEC Zwolle · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Sparta Rotterdam wins2 draws3 PEC Zwolle wins

Goals per game0.67 – 1.17 Over 2.517% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

8 Mar 2026Sparta Rotterdam1–1PEC Zwolle
8 Nov 2025PEC Zwolle1–0Sparta Rotterdam
15 Mar 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–1PEC Zwolle
30 Nov 2024PEC Zwolle1–0Sparta Rotterdam
4 Feb 2024Sparta Rotterdam0–2PEC Zwolle
12 Aug 2023PEC Zwolle1–2Sparta Rotterdam

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Sparta Rotterdam	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.75	1.00
Conceded per game	1.75	2.00
Match goals	3.50	3.00	2.95
Over 1.5	75%	100%
Over 2.5	75%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	50%	50%
Both teams scored	75%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	0%	25%
Failed to score	25%	25%
Games	4	4

	Sparta Rotterdam	PEC Zwolle	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	1.00
Conceded per game	2.20	2.60
Match goals	3.40	3.60	2.95
Over 1.5	80%	90%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	57%
Over 3.5	60%	60%
Both teams scored	60%	50%	58%
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sparta Rotterdam	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.75	3.50
Corners conceded	7.50	7.00
Match total	12.25	10.50	10.90
Over 8.5	100% 4/4	75% 3/4
Over 9.5	100% 4/4	50% 2/4
Over 10.5	75% 3/4	50% 2/4
Cards
Cards	1.25	1.50
Opponent cards	0.75	1.50
Match total	2.00	3.00	2.19
Over 3.5	25% 1/4	50% 2/4
Over 4.5	0% 0/4	25% 1/4

	Sparta Rotterdam	PEC Zwolle	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	4.00
Corners conceded	7.00	6.00
Match total	11.20	10.00	10.90
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.10
Opponent cards	1.70	1.20
Match total	3.30	2.30	2.19
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stan Teuben Netherlands · 3 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.33league 2.24

Red cards0.00league 0.06

Cards 5+33%league 12%

Fouls21.3league 20.5

Penalties0.00league 0.21

Home wins33%league 30%

Sparta Rotterdam

No previous matches with this referee.

PEC Zwolle1 with this referee

Record1-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W28 Nov 25H · Heerenveen2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.