Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sparta Rotterdam
9th · 42 pts · 29 played
LDLWD
First leg1–6
0–2Full time
PSV Eindhoven
1st · 71 pts · 29 played
WWLLW
Our take
PSV Eindhoven were slight favourites.
PSV Eindhoven were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam had 6.1 days of rest, PSV Eindhoven 7.1 and had to travel 87 km.
Away travel87 kmRest days6.1 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sparta Rotterdam20%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven58%
Sparta Rotterdam16%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven61%
Sparta Rotterdam19%
Draw22%
PSV Eindhoven59%
Sparta Rotterdam15%
Draw20%
PSV Eindhoven66%
Sparta Rotterdam21%
Draw23%
PSV Eindhoven56%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAlex Bos
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 38
Team strength
Sparta RotterdamPSV Eindhoven
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
74
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
32
AttackIn forecast
60
17
DefenceIn forecast
64
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisPSV Eindhoven
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamPSV Eindhoven
1.21
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.83
1.62
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.38
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
2.04
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.79
76%
Scored inContext
97%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
12.48
ShotsContext
17.48
4.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.17
36%
On target shareContext
41%
8.03
Shots in the boxContext
12.17
66%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
1.72
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.45
Shots allowedContext
11.31
5.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.11
4.34
BlocksContext
3.67
4.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
71%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
390
PassesContext
547
312
Accurate passesContext
475
80%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.07
9.69
FoulsContext
10.79
10.38
Fouls sufferedContext
8.48
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.24
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
2.12
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.32
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.40
ShotsContext
17.50
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
7.30
38%
On target shareContext
42%
6.90
Shots in the boxContext
12.20
63%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.89
13.30
Shots allowedContext
12.40
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.40
BlocksContext
4.63
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
75%
Save rateContext
66%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
407
PassesContext
526
328
Accurate passesContext
452
81%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
7.06
12.30
FoulsContext
8.80
10.40
Fouls sufferedContext
8.50
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km85 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
PSV Eindhoven
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel87 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
PSV Eindhoven |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 5 Apr | 7.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 4 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 87 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 85 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 11.1 | 12.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5M. Kleijn
4T. Quintero
3M. Young
2S. Sambo
11S. Mito
8J. Kitolano
6J. Baas
7A. Santos
10Vito van Crooij
9T. Lauritsen
PSV Eindhoven
Confirmed XI
32M. Kovář(G)
17Mauro Júnior
3Yarek Gąsiorowski
6R. Flamingo
25K. Sildillia
34I. Saibari
31N. Fernandez
20G. Til
5I. Perišić
9R. Pepi
10P. Wanner
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
PSV Eindhoven
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+1.0 pp
- Draw+0.4 pp
- PSV Eindhoven-1.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
1.57points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.21
- Conceded
- 1.43
PSV Eindhoven · Away
2.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 12-0-2
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| FC Volendam | W 2–0 HW 1–0 A | L 1–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Ajax | L 0–4 AD 3–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Heerenveen | L 1–2 AL 0–3 H | W 3–1 HW 2–0 A |
| AZ Alkmaar | L 1–3 AL 0–1 H | W 2–1 HW 5–1 A |
| NEC Nijmegen | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 2–3 HW 5–3 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | D 2–2 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 AW 5–2 H |
| Groningen | W 2–0 HW 2–0 A | W 2–1 AW 4–2 H |
| Utrecht | W 1–0 AW 2–1 H | W 4–3 HW 2–1 A |
| Feyenoord | W 4–3 AL 0–4 H | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A |
| Heracles | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | W 3–1 AW 4–3 H |
| Telstar | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 AL 0–2 H |
| Twente | L 1–5 H | W 2–0 A |
| Excelsior | W 1–0 A | W 5–1 HW 2–1 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | W 3–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 42 of 84 · 1.50 per game | 68 of 84 · 2.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Sparta Rotterdam wins0 draws4 PSV Eindhoven wins
Goals per game0.75 – 3.75
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets0% · 25%
- 9 Aug 2025PSV Eindhoven6–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 18 May 2025Sparta Rotterdam1–3PSV Eindhoven
- 5 Oct 2024PSV Eindhoven2–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 8 Oct 2023Sparta Rotterdam0–4PSV Eindhoven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.21 | 2.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.62 | 1.38 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 4.21 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 72% | 97% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 86% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 31% | 55% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 76% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 24% | 3% | |
| Games | 29 | 29 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | PSV Eindhoven | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 4.00 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 100% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 7.28 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.44 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 11.33 | 11.38 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 24/27 | 83% 24/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 19/27 | 83% 24/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 59% 16/27 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.97 | 1.31 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 1.66 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.97 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 66% 19/29 | 28% 8/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 34% 10/29 | 21% 6/29 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | PSV Eindhoven | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 7.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.11 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 11.70 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 3.20 | 3.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alex Bos Netherlands · 38 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.13league 3.18
Red cards0.26league 0.17
Cards 5+21%league 26%
Fouls22.3league 21.3
Penalties0.32league 0.23
Home wins39%league 46%
Sparta Rotterdam4 with this referee
Record1-3-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- D7 Feb 26A · Fortuna Sittard2–21
- W2 Feb 25H · Groningen1–00
- D25 Aug 24H · Feyenoord1–13
- D27 Jan 24A · Waalwijk1–12
PSV Eindhoven3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Oct 25A · PEC Zwolle4–03
- W24 Feb 24A · PEC Zwolle7–10
- W23 Sep 23A · Almere City FC4–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam29 games · scored 35 · conceded 47
4
3
0-15
4
3
16-30
5
9
31-45
4
7
46-60
6
13
61-75
12
12
76-90
PSV Eindhoven29 games · scored 82 · conceded 40
13
5
0-15
16
4
16-30
14
11
31-45
14
3
46-60
9
11
61-75
16
6
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
PSV Eindhoven10 games · scored 22 · conceded 17
4
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
