Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Utrecht were slight favourites.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (45 vs 22). Sparta Rotterdam had 7.7 days of rest, Utrecht 6.9 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days7.7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sparta Rotterdam28%
Draw26%
Utrecht45%
Sparta Rotterdam29%
Draw27%
Utrecht45%
Sparta Rotterdam28%
Draw26%
Utrecht45%
Sparta Rotterdam22%
Draw25%
Utrecht53%
Sparta Rotterdam29%
Draw27%
Utrecht45%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 53
Team strength
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
45
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
32
AttackIn forecast
32
17
DefenceIn forecast
31
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamUtrecht
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
—
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.99
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.85
90%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.80
ShotsContext
15.88
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.25
39%
On target shareContext
33%
8.56
Shots in the boxContext
10.25
68%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.71
OffsidesContext
1.67
17.30
Shots allowedContext
10.25
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.63
5.00
BlocksContext
2.88
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
66%
Save rateContext
79%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
377
PassesContext
360
305
Accurate passesContext
283
81%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.17
8.70
FoulsContext
12.25
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.88
0.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
Rest7.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km174 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel48 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 9 Aug | 6.9Eredivisie 2025-2026, 10 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 174 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1J. Drommel(G)
5P. van Aanholt
4R. Martins Indi
3M. Young
2S. Bakari
8P. Clement
6J. Kitolano
10J. Toornstra
7S. Ltaief
9T. Lauritsen
11S. Mito
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
25M. Brouwer(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
3M. van der Hoorn
2S. Horemans
21G. Zechiël
27A. Engwanda
15A. Blake
22Miguel Rodríguez
20D. de Wit
7V. Jensen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
No home games yet this season.
Utrecht · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Sparta Rotterdam wins1 draws2 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 May 2025Utrecht1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 3 Nov 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–4Utrecht
- 26 Nov 2023Sparta Rotterdam1–2Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 6.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 7.00 | 4.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 6.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 7.00 | 4.00 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 13.00 | 8.00 | 10.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.63 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 8.13 | 8.86 | 10.69 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.15 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.62league 3.21
Red cards0.15league 0.14
Cards 5+36%league 36%
Fouls20.2league 22.1
Penalties0.19league 0.14
Home wins30%league 57%
Sparta Rotterdam6 with this referee
Record3-0-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- W10 May 25A · Almere City FC3–01
- L14 Feb 25A · GO Ahead Eagles0–13
- L22 Dec 24H · Ajax0–22
- W31 Aug 24A · Willem II2–14
- L5 Nov 23H · Almere City FC1–20
Utrecht7 with this referee
Record5-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W25 Apr 25A · Waalwijk4–02
- W9 Mar 25A · Willem II3–22
- D24 Jan 25A · Heracles1–12
- W8 Dec 24A · Almere City FC3–13
- L27 Oct 24H · Feyenoord0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam1 games · scored 1 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
76-90
Utrecht1 games · scored 4 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 16 · conceded 15
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
3
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 23 · conceded 8
2
3
0-15
4
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
5
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
