Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sparta Rotterdam28.5%fair odds 3.51
Draw26.4%fair odds 3.78
Utrecht45.1%fair odds 2.22
Expected goals1.18 – 1.55total 2.73
Likeliest score1–112.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Utrecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sparta Rotterdam ↓ · Utrecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sparta Rotterdam goals, columns Utrecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%7.95
- 0–19.5%10.55
- 1–29.2%10.83
- 0–27.8%12.80
- 0–07.2%13.95
- 1–07.1%14.10
- 2–17.1%14.17
- 2–25.5%18.34
- 1–34.8%21.02
- 2–04.6%21.92
Winning margin
3.7%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 26.68
8.1%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 12.41
16.7%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 6.01
26.4%
Draw
fair 3.78
22.0%
Utrecht by 1
fair 4.55
13.8%
Utrecht by 2
fair 7.25
9.3%
Utrecht by 3+
fair 10.74
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
Utrecht goals
21%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 28.5% | 28.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Utrecht win | 45.1% | 44.7% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.3% | 50.6% | +0.7 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.2% | 54.7% | +0.5 pp |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 1.18 | 1.17 | +0.01 |
| Expected goals Utrecht | 1.55 | 1.52 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sparta Rotterdam win28.5%3.51
- Draw26.4%3.78
- Utrecht win45.1%2.22
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw54.9%1.82
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or Utrecht73.6%1.36
- Double chance Utrecht or draw71.5%1.40
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam38.7%2.58
- Draw no bet Utrecht61.3%1.63
Goals
- Over 0.592.8%1.08
- Over 1.576.3%1.31
- Over 2.551.3%1.95
- Over 3.529.2%3.42
- Over 4.514.1%7.08
- Under 1.523.7%4.21
- Under 2.548.7%2.05
- Under 3.570.8%1.41
Both teams to score
- Yes55.2%1.81
- No44.8%2.23
- Yes and over 2.542.6%2.35
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes14.3%6.98
- Draw and yes19.3%5.19
- Utrecht win and yes21.6%4.63
Team goals
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.569.3%1.44
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.533.1%3.02
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.511.7%8.58
- Utrecht over 0.578.7%1.27
- Utrecht over 1.545.8%2.19
- Utrecht over 2.520.3%4.93
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet21.3%4.69
- Utrecht clean sheet30.7%3.26
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil14.1%7.07
- Utrecht win to nil23.5%4.25
Handicap
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.511.8%8.47
- Sparta Rotterdam −2.53.7%26.68
- Utrecht +1.588.2%1.13
- Utrecht +2.596.3%1.04
- Utrecht −1.523.1%4.33
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.576.9%1.30
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored14
Favourite won64.3%
Avg chance given to result48.7%
1X2 Brier0.455
Over 2.5 called right64.3%
BTTS called right57.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.8% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 5 | 44.0% | 40.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 53.9% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 4 | 62.2% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 76.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 80.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 9 of 14 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.4443 | 0.4582 |
| Avg chance given to result | 49.1% | 51.1% |
| Favourite won | 66.7% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 9 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 14 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.