Sparta Rotterdam
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Utrecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam had 7.9 days of rest, Utrecht 7 and had to travel 48 km.
Away travel48 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sparta Rotterdam39%
Draw25%
Utrecht36%
Sparta Rotterdam35%
Draw26%
Utrecht39%
Sparta Rotterdam39%
Draw25%
Utrecht36%
Sparta Rotterdam32%
Draw24%
Utrecht44%
Sparta Rotterdam40%
Draw24%
Utrecht36%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 59%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDennis Higler
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 47
Team strength
Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
32
AttackIn forecast
32
17
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamUtrecht
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
3.00
1.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
2.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.83
-0.28
Goals minus xGContext
-0.59
50%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
11.00
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
35%
On target shareContext
41%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
81%
Box shareContext
80%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
—
OffsidesContext
2.50
14.50
Shots allowedContext
20.00
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.00
4.00
BlocksContext
6.00
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
100%
Save rateContext
57%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
332
PassesContext
339
257
Accurate passesContext
263
77%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.43
14.00
FoulsContext
20.00
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.69
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
50%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.40
ShotsContext
16.00
3.89
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.30
28%
On target shareContext
39%
8.60
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
70%
Box shareContext
70%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
1.75
15.60
Shots allowedContext
14.30
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.90
BlocksContext
3.30
4.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
71%
Save rateContext
67%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
368
PassesContext
365
298
Accurate passesContext
294
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.00
FoulsContext
11.30
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
LW
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km122 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 3 pts vs 3.1 for an average club · +1.3 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Eredivisie 2026-2027, 14 Aug | 7Eredivisie 2026-2027, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 48 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 122 km | 318 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1F. Bednarek(G)
4R. Martins Indi
2N. Verschuren
3M. Young
5B. Kuipers
6J. Baas
10S. Mito
7Lushendry Edward Martes
11A. Santos
9N. Þórisson
8Robin van Cruijsen
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
21Neville Ogidi Nwankwo
3M. Didden
2S. Horemans
92A. Zagré
34D. van den Berg
20D. de Wit
23N. Vesterlund
10Y. Cathline
18A. Stepanov
11Ángel Alarcón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Utrecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Utrecht · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
2 Sparta Rotterdam wins1 draws2 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.20 – 1.60
Over 2.560%
Both scored80%
Clean sheets20% · 0%
- 25 Jan 2026Utrecht0–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 17 Aug 2025Sparta Rotterdam2–1Utrecht
- 14 May 2025Utrecht1–1Sparta Rotterdam
- 3 Nov 2024Sparta Rotterdam1–4Utrecht
- 26 Nov 2023Sparta Rotterdam1–2Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 4.00 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 100% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 3.60 | 2.95 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 59% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 8.50 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 13.50 | 9.00 | 11.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.80 | 9.50 | 11.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.70 | 2.28 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Dennis Higler Netherlands · 47 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 2.16
Red cards0.23league 0.11
Cards 5+28%league 11%
Fouls22.0league 20.8
Penalties0.19league 0.00
Home wins45%league 32%
Sparta Rotterdam5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds3
- L8 Nov 25A · PEC Zwolle0–14
- D14 May 25A · Utrecht1–10
- D19 Oct 24H · Almere City FC2–23
- L24 Feb 24A · NEC Nijmegen0–24
- L8 Oct 23H · PSV Eindhoven0–43
Utrecht5 with this referee
Record2-2-1
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D14 May 25H · Sparta Rotterdam1–11
- D18 Jan 25H · AZ Alkmaar0–00
- W1 Sep 24H · Twente2–10
- W22 Oct 23H · Ajax4–31
- L23 Sep 23A · NEC Nijmegen0–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam2 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
1
76-90
Utrecht2 games · scored 2 · conceded 6
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 10 · conceded 21
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
4
46-60
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 20 · conceded 19
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
8
46-60
4
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
