Sparta Rotterdam
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sparta Rotterdam38.7%fair odds 2.58
Draw25.7%fair odds 3.89
Utrecht35.5%fair odds 2.81
Expected goals1.51 – 1.44total 2.95
Likeliest score1–112.0%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Utrecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sparta Rotterdam ↓ · Utrecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sparta Rotterdam goals, columns Utrecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%8.35
- 2–18.6%11.63
- 1–28.2%12.21
- 1–07.3%13.69
- 0–16.9%14.43
- 2–26.2%16.16
- 2–06.0%16.74
- 0–05.8%17.13
- 0–25.4%18.45
- 3–14.3%23.09
Winning margin
7.4%
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+
fair 13.49
11.7%
Sparta Rotterdam by 2
fair 8.57
19.6%
Sparta Rotterdam by 1
fair 5.09
25.7%
Draw
fair 3.89
18.7%
Utrecht by 1
fair 5.35
10.6%
Utrecht by 2
fair 9.45
6.3%
Utrecht by 3+
fair 15.93
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
14%1
23%2
22%3
17%4
18%5+
Sparta Rotterdam goals
22%0
33%1
25%2
13%3
7%4+
Utrecht goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 38.7% | 39.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Draw | 25.7% | 25.3% | +0.4 pp |
| Utrecht win | 35.5% | 35.7% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 58.4% | -1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.1% | 61.5% | -1.4 pp |
| Expected goals Sparta Rotterdam | 1.51 | 1.55 | -0.04 |
| Expected goals Utrecht | 1.44 | 1.48 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sparta Rotterdam win38.7%2.58
- Draw25.7%3.89
- Utrecht win35.5%2.81
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or draw64.5%1.55
- Double chance Sparta Rotterdam or Utrecht74.3%1.35
- Double chance Utrecht or draw61.3%1.63
- Draw no bet Sparta Rotterdam52.1%1.92
- Draw no bet Utrecht47.9%2.09
Goals
- Over 0.594.2%1.06
- Over 1.579.9%1.25
- Over 2.556.6%1.77
- Over 3.534.2%2.93
- Over 4.517.6%5.67
- Under 1.520.1%4.98
- Under 2.543.4%2.30
- Under 3.565.8%1.52
Both teams to score
- Yes60.1%1.67
- No39.9%2.50
- Yes and over 2.548.1%2.08
- Sparta Rotterdam win and yes20.9%4.80
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Utrecht win and yes19.3%5.18
Team goals
- Sparta Rotterdam over 0.577.9%1.28
- Sparta Rotterdam over 1.544.6%2.24
- Sparta Rotterdam over 2.519.4%5.16
- Utrecht over 0.576.3%1.31
- Utrecht over 1.542.2%2.37
- Utrecht over 2.517.6%5.68
- Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet23.7%4.22
- Utrecht clean sheet22.1%4.53
- Sparta Rotterdam win to nil17.9%5.59
- Utrecht win to nil16.2%6.16
Handicap
- Sparta Rotterdam −1.519.1%5.24
- Sparta Rotterdam −2.57.4%13.49
- Utrecht +1.580.9%1.24
- Utrecht +2.592.6%1.08
- Utrecht −1.516.9%5.93
- Sparta Rotterdam +1.583.1%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored19
Favourite won57.9%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.608
Over 2.5 called right73.7%
BTTS called right63.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 2 | 38.7% | 50.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 44.4% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 9 | 56.4% | 66.7% |
| 60–70% | 3 | 67.3% | 66.7% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 84.4% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 19 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 19 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.