Sparta Rotterdam
Attack+31%
Defense risk−33%
Our take
Sparta Rotterdam were slight favourites.
Sparta Rotterdam were the stronger side on L90 Strength (18 vs 10). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Sparta Rotterdam. Sparta Rotterdam were without S. Mito and M. van Bergen. Sparta Rotterdam had 7.2 days of rest, Willem II 6.4 and had to travel 59 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel59 kmRest days7.2 · 6.4Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sparta Rotterdam59%
Draw22%
Willem II20%
Sparta Rotterdam54%
Draw25%
Willem II22%
Sparta Rotterdam60%
Draw21%
Willem II19%
Sparta Rotterdam51%
Draw24%
Willem II26%
Sparta Rotterdam59%
Draw22%
Willem II20%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Rotterdam)
11°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 70%
Referee · NetherlandsSerdar Gozubuyuk
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 115
Team strength
Sparta Rotterdam
Willem II
18
L90 StrengthIn forecast
10
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
10
32
AttackIn forecast
10
17
DefenceIn forecast
9
10
Form indexContext
8
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisWillem II
Attack+16%
Defense risk−13%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
Sparta RotterdamWillem II
1.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.88
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
2.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.95
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
75%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.63
ShotsContext
11.50
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.63
35%
On target shareContext
23%
9.25
Shots in the boxContext
7.88
68%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
2.67
OffsidesContext
2.00
17.50
Shots allowedContext
20.13
5.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.25
5.00
BlocksContext
4.50
4.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
66%
Save rateContext
60%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
380
PassesContext
351
309
Accurate passesContext
274
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.49
9.88
FoulsContext
9.50
9.63
Fouls sufferedContext
9.63
1.38
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.40
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.36
1.80
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.11
-0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.46
70%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
13.50
ShotsContext
11.44
5.38
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
32%
On target shareContext
26%
9.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
68%
Box shareContext
71%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
18.20
Shots allowedContext
19.78
6.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.11
4.80
BlocksContext
4.44
4.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.44
64%
Save rateContext
63%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
382
PassesContext
358
311
Accurate passesContext
280
81%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.53
9.70
FoulsContext
9.44
9.60
Fouls sufferedContext
9.44
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sparta Rotterdam
LDLLD
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km242 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 10 · 2 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
Willem II
LDLLL
Rest6.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel59 km119 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 8 · 1 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · -2.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sparta Rotterdam |
Willem II |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Eredivisie 2026-2027, 10 Oct | 6.4Eredivisie 2026-2027, 11 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 59 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 242 km | 119 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sparta Rotterdam
Confirmed XI
1M. Brouwer(G)
5B. Kuipers
4R. Martins Indi
6N. Verschuren
3M. Young
2Lushendry Edward Martes
11I. Babadi
10C. Hatenboer
8J. Toornstra
7Robin van Cruijsen
9Milan Zonneveld
Willem II
Confirmed XI
26M. Delanghe(G)
24N. Tjoe-A-On
23M. Dekker
3F. Stam
5H. ter Avest
52T. Vilhena
18Anass Zarrouk
32Vito van Crooij
19U. van Aalst
7J. Slory
9D. Haen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sparta Rotterdam
Scores -0.10 · concedes 0.00 goals
Attack line −43.2% · Defence line −0.0% of weighted minutes
- ATT S. Mito Starter 6.89 Att −22.9%
- ATT M. van Bergen Starter 6.79 Att −20.3%
Willem II
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals
Attack line −2.8% · Defence line −4.5% of weighted minutes
- MID Kasper Boogaard Rotation 6.24 Att −2.8% Def −1.8%
- DEF J. Hoogma Rotation 6.23 Def −2.3%
- DEF T. Didillon-Hödl Depth 6.90 Def −0.4%
Total impact vs full squads
- Sparta Rotterdam-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Willem II+0.8 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Sparta Rotterdam · Home
0.50points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-2
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Willem II · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.25
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 4 this season
| Opponent | Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 3–3 A | L 1–4 A |
| Heerenveen | L 0–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| Excelsior | L 1–2 A | L 0–3 H |
| Utrecht | D 3–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 2 of 12 · 0.50 per game | 1 of 12 · 0.25 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Sparta Rotterdam wins0 draws0 Willem II wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 2 Mar 2025Sparta Rotterdam4–0Willem II
- 31 Aug 2024Willem II1–2Sparta Rotterdam
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.63 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 2.88 | |
| Match goals | 4.13 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 88% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 88% | 75% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.70 | 2.88 | |
| Match goals | 4.20 | 3.75 | 3.25 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 75% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 63% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 75% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 25% | |
| Games | 10 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.25 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 13.25 | 10.75 | 10.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 8/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 88% 7/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 75% 6/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.38 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match total | 2.13 | 1.75 | 2.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 13% 1/8 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/8 | 0% 0/8 | |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Willem II | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 3.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 6.67 | |
| Match total | 12.40 | 10.45 | 10.47 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 0.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.60 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 2.30 | 2.10 | 2.71 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk Netherlands · 115 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.87league 2.71
Red cards0.11league 0.07
Cards 5+41%league 13%
Fouls22.8league 21.2
Penalties0.27league 0.24
Home wins50%league 32%
Sparta Rotterdam10 with this referee
Record1-3-6
Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9
Pens for · against1 · 1
Reds2
- L29 Aug 26A · Excelsior1–21
- L27 Sep 25A · Heracles0–34
- L31 Aug 25H · Feyenoord0–42
- L18 May 25H · PSV Eindhoven1–31
- D7 Mar 25A · NAC Breda1–12
Willem II4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L15 Aug 26H · NEC Nijmegen1–41
- L14 May 25H · PEC Zwolle1–22
- L27 Apr 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–10
- L28 Sep 24H · PSV Eindhoven0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sparta Rotterdam8 games · scored 13 · conceded 20
2
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
3
5
76-90
Willem II8 games · scored 7 · conceded 23
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
9
61-75
4
5
76-90
Sparta Rotterdam10 games · scored 15 · conceded 27
2
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
4
6
76-90
Willem II10 games · scored 9 · conceded 24
1
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
9
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
