Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 25). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Alverca. Sporting CP had 8 days of rest, Alverca 7.2 and had to travel 22 km.
Away travel22 kmRest days8 · 7.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Sporting CP75%
Draw15%
Alverca9%
Sporting CP80%
Draw13%
Alverca7%
Sporting CP75%
Draw15%
Alverca9%
Sporting CP69%
Draw19%
Alverca13%
Sporting CP74%
Draw16%
Alverca10%
Over 2.5 63%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
RefereeFábio Veríssimo
- Cards per match 5.9
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 61
Team strength
Sporting CP
Alverca
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
75
AttackIn forecast
38
81
DefenceIn forecast
42
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAlverca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPAlverca
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
1.17
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.99
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
-0.77
100%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.00
ShotsContext
14.50
5.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
55%
On target shareContext
31%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
67%
Box shareContext
62%
25%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
—
10.00
Shots allowedContext
9.50
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.00
BlocksContext
—
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
50%
Save rateContext
60%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
479
PassesContext
335
420
Accurate passesContext
268
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.00
FoulsContext
10.00
17.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
3.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.50
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
1.01
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.46
Goals minus xGContext
-0.08
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.00
ShotsContext
10.40
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
39%
On target shareContext
37%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
70%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.10
Shots allowedContext
12.10
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
2.80
BlocksContext
3.75
2.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
73%
Save rateContext
64%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
528
PassesContext
349
466
Accurate passesContext
283
88%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.60
FoulsContext
11.70
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.50
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
DW
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km15 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 4 pts vs 3.8 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Alverca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 14 Aug | 7.2Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 15 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 22 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 15 km | 506 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
55I. Ba
6Z. Debast
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
17R. Zalazar
58Flavio Goncalves
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Alverca
Confirmed XI
31Matheus Mendes(G)
12Isaac James
4Y. Bojang
14S. Baseya
55Francisco Chissumba
35Rayan Lucas
6D. Gui
2Zoubdi
22Figueiredo
25Ian Luccas
9Vivaldo Semedo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Alverca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Alverca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Alverca · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Estrela | D 2–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Sporting CP wins0 draws0 Alverca wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 22 Mar 2026Alverca1–4Sporting CP
- 31 Oct 2025Sporting CP2–0Alverca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 3.00 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Sporting CP | Alverca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.60 | 3.24 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 50% | 63% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 7.00 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 16.00 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/2 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 3.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 6.00 | 5.50 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Sporting CP | Alverca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 5.44 | |
| Match total | 9.67 | 10.88 | 8.72 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Fábio Veríssimo 61 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.64league 4.58
Red cards0.28league 0.26
Cards 5+72%league 47%
Fouls27.9league 25.3
Penalties0.38league 0.32
Home wins33%league 32%
Sporting CP9 with this referee
Record7-2-0
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D23 Feb 25A · AVS2–25
- W29 Dec 24H · Benfica1–02
- W14 Dec 24H · Boavista3–23
- W26 Oct 24A · Famalicao3–01
- W16 Apr 24A · Famalicao1–04
AlvercaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP2 games · scored 5 · conceded 4
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
Alverca2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
31-45
4
46-60
5
4
61-75
3
5
76-90
Alverca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
