Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (82 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Arouca. Sporting CP had 6 days of rest, Arouca 6.1 and had to travel 257 km.
Away travel257 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d3 · 2
Sporting CP77%
Draw15%
Arouca9%
Sporting CP77%
Draw15%
Arouca8%
Sporting CP77%
Draw15%
Arouca9%
Sporting CP70%
Draw18%
Arouca12%
Sporting CP75%
Draw15%
Arouca9%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalDavid Rafael Oliveira da Silva
- Cards per match 6.4
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 19
Team strength
Sporting CP
Arouca
82
L90 StrengthIn forecast
32
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
75
AttackIn forecast
28
81
DefenceIn forecast
37
84
Form indexContext
37
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPArouca
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.83
1.89
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
0.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.59
+0.61
Goals minus xGContext
+0.11
100%
Scored inContext
67%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
13.50
ShotsContext
10.33
6.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
47%
On target shareContext
36%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.17
63%
Box shareContext
60%
19%
ConversionContext
13%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.80
7.33
Shots allowedContext
15.50
2.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.17
1.60
BlocksContext
3.83
1.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.33
69%
Save rateContext
84%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
578
PassesContext
464
515
Accurate passesContext
395
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.92
12.17
FoulsContext
9.33
13.17
Fouls sufferedContext
11.17
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
3.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
2.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.18
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.92
Goals minus xGContext
+0.52
100%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.20
ShotsContext
11.40
6.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
46%
On target shareContext
35%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.40
64%
Box shareContext
56%
23%
ConversionContext
15%
1.88
OffsidesContext
1.89
8.90
Shots allowedContext
13.70
2.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
1.89
BlocksContext
3.90
2.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
80%
Save rateContext
73%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
540
PassesContext
466
479
Accurate passesContext
395
89%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.06
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.30
FoulsContext
10.80
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
WWWWD
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km606 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 84 · 13 pts vs 8.4 for an average club · +2.1 vs expected
Arouca
WLWDL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel257 km533 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 37 · 7 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 15 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 6.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 257 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 606 km | 533 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 20 | 22 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
6Z. Debast
22Iván Fresneda
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
19N. Irankunda
17R. Zalazar
10Geny Catamo
97L. Suárez
Arouca
Confirmed XI
12I. de Arruabarrena(G)
18O. Lebedenko
3José Fontán
15Javi Sánchez
28Tiago Esgaio
8T. Fukui
6E. van Ee
7N. Djouahra
21Mateo Flores
19A. Trezza
17Barbero
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
3.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Arouca · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 0.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Sporting CP | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
5 Sporting CP wins2 draws1 Arouca wins
Goals per game2.38 – 0.75
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets38% · 13%
- 24 Jan 2026Arouca1–2Sporting CP
- 17 Aug 2025Sporting CP6–0Arouca
- 15 Feb 2025Sporting CP2–2Arouca
- 13 Sep 2024Arouca0–3Sporting CP
- 10 Mar 2024Arouca0–3Sporting CP
- 8 Oct 2023Sporting CP2–1Arouca
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.83 | |
| Match goals | 3.50 | 2.17 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 33% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Sporting CP | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 3.00 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.80 | 3.38 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 70% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 7.00 | 8.50 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 20% 1/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/5 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/5 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.83 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 5.16 | 4.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Sporting CP | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 7.34 | 8.90 | 8.86 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 4.90 | 4.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Rafael Oliveira da Silva Portugal · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.16league 4.00
Red cards0.26league 0.20
Cards 5+89%league 41%
Fouls29.5league 24.9
Penalties0.26league 0.34
Home wins53%league 41%
Sporting CP3 with this referee
Record3-0-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W11 Apr 26A · Estrela1–01
- W15 Feb 26H · Famalicao1–03
- W16 Jan 26H · Casa Pia3–00
Arouca1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W14 Dec 25H · Alverca1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP6 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
31-45
5
46-60
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Arouca6 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 30 · conceded 9
5
2
0-15
5
16-30
7
31-45
6
46-60
4
3
61-75
3
4
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
