Sporting CP
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Sporting CP76.2%fair odds 1.31
Draw15.4%fair odds 6.50
Arouca8.4%fair odds 11.84
Expected goals2.60 – 0.78total 3.38
Likeliest score2–011.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Arouca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Sporting CP ↓ · Arouca → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.0 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Sporting CP goals, columns Arouca goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%8.65
- 3–010.0%9.97
- 2–19.0%11.16
- 1–08.5%11.74
- 3–17.8%12.87
- 1–17.2%13.79
- 4–06.5%15.33
- 4–15.1%19.77
- 0–03.8%26.47
- 2–23.5%28.80
Winning margin
33.5%
Sporting CP by 3+
fair 2.98
21.6%
Sporting CP by 2
fair 4.63
21.0%
Sporting CP by 1
fair 4.75
15.4%
Draw
fair 6.50
6.0%
Arouca by 1
fair 16.63
1.9%
Arouca by 2
fair 52.24
0.5%
Arouca by 3+
fair 193.31
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
19%4
25%5+
Sporting CP goals
7%0
19%1
25%2
22%3
26%4+
Arouca goals
46%0
36%1
14%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP win | 76.2% | 75.1% | +1.1 pp |
| Draw | 15.4% | 16.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Arouca win | 8.4% | 8.8% | -0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 65.6% | 63.2% | +2.4 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.3% | 49.1% | +1.2 pp |
| Expected goals Sporting CP | 2.60 | 2.50 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Arouca | 0.78 | 0.76 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Sporting CP win76.2%1.31
- Draw15.4%6.50
- Arouca win8.4%11.84
- Double chance Sporting CP or draw91.6%1.09
- Double chance Sporting CP or Arouca84.6%1.18
- Double chance Arouca or draw23.8%4.20
- Draw no bet Sporting CP90.0%1.11
- Draw no bet Arouca10.0%10.02
Goals
- Over 0.596.2%1.04
- Over 1.585.4%1.17
- Over 2.565.6%1.52
- Over 3.543.7%2.29
- Over 4.525.2%3.97
- Under 1.514.6%6.86
- Under 2.534.4%2.91
- Under 3.556.3%1.78
Both teams to score
- Yes50.3%1.99
- No49.7%2.01
- Yes and over 2.543.1%2.32
- Sporting CP win and yes33.9%2.95
- Draw and yes11.6%8.62
- Arouca win and yes4.8%20.77
Team goals
- Sporting CP over 0.592.6%1.08
- Sporting CP over 1.573.3%1.36
- Sporting CP over 2.548.2%2.07
- Arouca over 0.553.9%1.85
- Arouca over 1.518.2%5.48
- Arouca over 2.54.4%22.77
- Sporting CP clean sheet46.1%2.17
- Arouca clean sheet7.4%13.50
- Sporting CP win to nil42.3%2.36
- Arouca win to nil3.6%27.54
Handicap
- Sporting CP −1.555.1%1.81
- Sporting CP −2.533.5%2.98
- Arouca +1.544.9%2.23
- Arouca +2.566.5%1.50
- Arouca −1.52.4%41.13
- Sporting CP +1.597.6%1.02
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored56
Favourite won53.6%
Avg chance given to result45.2%
1X2 Brier0.538
Over 2.5 called right55.4%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 10 | 38.4% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 11 | 44.8% | 18.2% |
| 50–60% | 15 | 53.4% | 60.0% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 65.0% | 71.4% |
| 70–80% | 10 | 74.8% | 90.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 84.5% | 66.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 22 of 56 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5312 | 0.5359 |
| Avg chance given to result | 45.1% | 45.7% |
| Favourite won | 54.5% | 45.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 22 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Alverca 1–0 Rio Ave51·25·24
- ✗GIL Vicente 1–1 Maritimo58·23·19
- ✓Nacional 0–4 Famalicao28·25·47
- ✓SC Braga 1–0 Estoril65·20·15
- ✓Moreirense 3–1 Maritimo46·26·28
- ✗Rio Ave 3–3 Estrela37·26·37
- ✗Famalicao 1–1 Sporting CP19·23·58
- ✗Arouca 1–2 Santa Clara41·26·32
- ✓Benfica 3–1 GIL Vicente79·13·8
- ✓Academico Viseu 2–1 Guimaraes37·26·37
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 56 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.