Sporting CP
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Sporting CP were clear favourites.
Sporting CP were the stronger side on L90 Strength (81 vs 30). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Guimaraes. Sporting CP had 6 days of rest, Guimaraes 6.1 and had to travel 311 km.
Away travel311 kmRest days6 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sporting CP77%
Draw14%
Guimaraes9%
Sporting CP77%
Draw15%
Guimaraes8%
Sporting CP77%
Draw14%
Guimaraes9%
Sporting CP70%
Draw18%
Guimaraes12%
Sporting CP76%
Draw15%
Guimaraes9%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Lisboa)
No weather data yet
RefereeDavid Silva
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 20
Team strength
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
81
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
83
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
75
AttackIn forecast
28
81
DefenceIn forecast
39
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGuimaraes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sporting CPGuimaraes
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.34
0.97
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
80%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.50
ShotsContext
14.00
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
39%
On target shareContext
28%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
71%
Box shareContext
58%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
10.60
Shots allowedContext
9.10
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.70
BlocksContext
2.22
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
77%
Save rateContext
66%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
516
PassesContext
424
454
Accurate passesContext
354
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.50
FoulsContext
12.70
10.60
Fouls sufferedContext
12.60
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sporting CP
D
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km15 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 43 · 1 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · -1.3 vs expected
- D8 AugA · Estrela2–22.3 xPts
Guimaraes
L
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel311 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 33 · 0 pts vs 1.9 for an average club · -1.5 vs expected
- L8 AugH · Arouca0–11.5 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sporting CP |
Guimaraes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Aug | 6.1Primeira Liga 2026-2027, 8 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 311 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 15 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 8.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sporting CP
Confirmed XI
1Rui Silva(G)
20M. Araújo
25G. Inácio
72Eduardo Quaresma
13G. Vagiannidis
77I. Doumbia
5Sergi Altimira
58Flavio Goncalves
17R. Zalazar
10Geny Catamo
7F. Ioannidis
Guimaraes
Confirmed XI
48O. Zych(G)
13J. Teixeira Mendes
28Thiago Balieiro
4Óscar Rivas
2Miguel Maga
16Beni
8Gonçalo Nogueira
11Gustavo Silva
20Samu
7O. Camara
24A. Ndoye
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sporting CP
Absences are shown before kick-off
Guimaraes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sporting CP+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Guimaraes+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Sporting CP · Home
No home games yet this season.
Guimaraes · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
6 Sporting CP wins1 draws1 Guimaraes wins
Goals per game3.13 – 1.13
Over 2.575%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 4 May 2026Sporting CP5–1Guimaraes
- 23 Dec 2025Guimaraes1–4Sporting CP
- 17 May 2025Sporting CP2–0Guimaraes
- 3 Jan 2025Guimaraes4–4Sporting CP
- 21 Apr 2024Sporting CP3–0Guimaraes
- 9 Dec 2023Guimaraes3–2Sporting CP
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Sporting CP | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 1.00 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 0% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Sporting CP | Guimaraes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.70 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.60 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sporting CP | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 7.00 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 7.00 | 4.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Sporting CP | Guimaraes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 8.70 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 4.20 | 4.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · David Silva 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.10league 4.67
Red cards0.15league 0.22
Cards 5+70%league 44%
Fouls27.1league 26.1
Penalties0.20league 0.44
Home wins25%league 33%
Sporting CPNo previous matches with this referee.
Guimaraes1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D13 Apr 24H · Farense1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sporting CP1 games · scored 2 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Guimaraes1 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
76-90
Sporting CP10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
31-45
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Guimaraes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 15
1
2
0-15
3
3
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
