St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 28). St. Truiden had 7 days of rest, Antwerp 7.2 and had to travel.
Rest days7 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
St. Truiden38%
Draw27%
Antwerp34%
St. Truiden38%
Draw27%
Antwerp34%
St. Truiden38%
Draw27%
Antwerp34%
St. Truiden31%
Draw27%
Antwerp42%
St. Truiden38%
Draw27%
Antwerp34%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.10
- Matches 31
Team strength
St. Truiden
Antwerp
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
35
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
37
AttackIn forecast
24
32
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenAntwerp
1.42
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.33
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.26
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
75%
Scored inContext
58%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
8%
14.08
ShotsContext
11.00
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
30%
On target shareContext
36%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
6.18
68%
Box shareContext
56%
10%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.82
11.25
Shots allowedContext
13.92
4.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
3.25
BlocksContext
4.25
3.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.55
71%
Save rateContext
70%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
417
PassesContext
388
337
Accurate passesContext
314
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.86
12.83
FoulsContext
12.08
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
13.42
1.58
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.53
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.18
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.33
70%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
14.10
ShotsContext
11.80
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
29%
On target shareContext
33%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
67%
Box shareContext
51%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
3.22
OffsidesContext
2.78
11.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
2.90
BlocksContext
4.60
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
73%
Save rateContext
69%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
418
PassesContext
406
337
Accurate passesContext
331
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.70
FoulsContext
12.60
10.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—202 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Oct | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 26 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 202 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
18S. Juklerød
5S. Taniguchi
20R. Van Helden
3T. Hata
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
4Yuto Tsunashima
25B. Kouyaté
33Z. Van Den Bosch
5D. Foulon
34M. Diawara
16M. Benítez
24T. Somers
43Y. Hamdaoui
18V. Janssen
9M. Al Sahafi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
1.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-1-2
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.50
Antwerp · Away
0.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | St. Truiden | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Anderlecht | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Charleroi | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 A |
| Gent | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Points | 12 of 30 · 1.20 per game | 8 of 30 · 0.80 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 St. Truiden wins1 draws1 Antwerp wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 3 Mar 2024Antwerp3–0St. Truiden
- 24 Nov 2023St. Truiden1–1Antwerp
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.42 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.33 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 25% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 8% | |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 58% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 8% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 42% | |
| Games | 12 | 12 |
| St. Truiden | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.18 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.82 | 4.83 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 8.58 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 73% 8/11 | 42% 5/12 | |
| Over 9.5 | 64% 7/11 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Over 10.5 | 55% 6/11 | 17% 2/12 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 3.75 | 4.58 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 5/12 | 67% 8/12 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 2/12 | 58% 7/12 | |
| St. Truiden | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.33 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 10.22 | 9.00 | 9.51 |
| Over 8.5 | 78% 7/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 6/9 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.70 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.81
Red cards0.23league 0.21
Cards 5+52%league 41%
Fouls23.3league 23.1
Penalties0.10league 0.28
Home wins45%league 43%
St. Truiden2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W1 Feb 24H · Gent4–12
- D3 Nov 23H · AS Eupen1–11
Antwerp2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Oct 25H · Cercle Brugge1–11
- W9 Dec 23A · Cercle Brugge3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden12 games · scored 17 · conceded 16
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
8
3
76-90
Antwerp12 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
3
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
