Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Dec 6 · 19:45 Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond
St. Truiden 4th · 30 pts · 16 played
First leg0–2 3–2Full time
Club Brugge KV 2nd · 32 pts · 16 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.

Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (64 vs 33). St. Truiden had 6.1 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 6.3 and had to travel.

Rest days6.1 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
St. Truiden26%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV48%
Expected goals 1.16 – 1.64
St. Truiden26%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV47%
Expected goals 1.13 – 1.59
St. Truiden26%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV48%
Expected goals 1.16 – 1.64
St. Truiden20%
Draw24%
Club Brugge KV56%
Expected goals 1.03 – 1.84
St. Truiden26%
Draw26%
Club Brugge KV47%
Expected goals 1.13 – 1.59
Over 2.5 53% Both score 56% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)

No weather data yet

RefereeBram Van Driessche
  • Cards per match 4.5
  • Penalties per match 0.17
  • Matches 35

Team strength

St. TruidenClub Brugge KV
33 L90 StrengthIn forecast 64
35 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
37 AttackIn forecast 86
32 DefenceIn forecast 58
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

St. TruidenClub Brugge KV
1.44 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.38
1.13 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88
1.65 xGVia Att/Def 1.40
1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95
-0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.02
81% Scored inContext 81%
25% Clean sheetsContext 44%
14.25 ShotsContext 16.19
4.31 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.88
30% On target shareContext 30%
9.25 Shots in the boxContext 11.19
66% Box shareContext 68%
10% ConversionContext 9%
3.08 OffsidesContext 2.09
11.00 Shots allowedContext 11.75
4.06 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.81
3.07 BlocksContext 2.69
3.06 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
75% Save rateContext 83%
54% PossessionIn forecast 63%
439 PassesContext 556
361 Accurate passesContext 486
82% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.90 Team ratingContext 7.06
12.25 FoulsContext 9.25
11.19 Fouls sufferedContext 12.19
1.63 Yellow cardsContext 1.38
0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06
This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
1.62 xGVia Att/Def 1.01
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.44
-0.42 Goals minus xGContext -0.11
70% Scored inContext 60%
20% Clean sheetsContext 40%
13.90 ShotsContext 12.80
4.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.80
30% On target shareContext 30%
8.80 Shots in the boxContext 8.67
64% Box shareContext 65%
9% ConversionContext 7%
3.22 OffsidesContext 2.50
12.50 Shots allowedContext 14.50
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
2.78 BlocksContext 3.00
3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
75% Save rateContext 74%
53% PossessionIn forecast 55%
437 PassesContext 493
362 Accurate passesContext 428
83% Pass accuracyContext 87%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.94
11.70 FoulsContext 9.00
11.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10
1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.60
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

St. Truiden
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Club Brugge KV
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
St. Truiden Club Brugge KV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Nov6.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one77.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

St. Truiden Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16L. Kokubo(G)
60R. Vanwesemael 5S. Taniguchi 26V. Musliu 20R. Van Helden
8A. Sissako 6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui 13R. Ito 7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16T. van den Heuvel(G)
65J. Seys 44B. Mechele 4J. Ordoñez 41H. Siquet
15R. Onyedika 25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis 20H. Vanaken 10H. Vetlesen
7N. Tresoldi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
St. Truiden Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

St. Truiden · Home 2.00points per game · 8 home games
W-D-L
5-1-2
Scored
1.50
Conceded
1.13
Club Brugge KV · Away 1.63points per game · 8 away games
W-D-L
4-1-3
Scored
0.88
Conceded
0.75

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentSt. TruidenClub Brugge KV
Gent W 2–1 AW 3–1 H D 1–1 A
OH Leuven W 2–1 A W 1–0 A
Standard Liege W 1–0 H W 2–1 A
Antwerp W 1–0 H L 0–1 HW 1–0 A
Union St. Gilloise L 0–2 A W 1–0 H
Anderlecht D 2–2 H L 0–1 A
KV Mechelen W 3–1 A L 1–2 A
Genk L 1–2 H W 2–1 H
KVC Westerlo L 0–3 H D 5–5 H
Cercle Brugge D 1–1 A W 2–0 H
Zulte Waregem W 2–0 A W 1–0 A
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 H L 0–1 A
Dender W 2–0 H W 2–1 H
Charleroi D 1–1 A W 1–0 H
Points30 of 45 · 2.00 per game29 of 45 · 1.93 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

1 St. Truiden wins1 draws1 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets0% · 33%
  • 21 Sep 2025Club Brugge KV2–0St. Truiden
  • 17 Mar 2024St. Truiden2–1Club Brugge KV
  • 1 Oct 2023Club Brugge KV1–1St. Truiden

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

St. TruidenClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 1.441.38
Conceded per game 1.130.88
Match goals 2.562.25 2.80
Over 1.5 88%50%
Over 2.5 50%31% 53%
Over 3.5 19%6%
Both teams scored 56%38% 56%
Clean sheets 25%44%
Failed to score 19%19%
Games1616
St. TruidenClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 1.201.50
Conceded per game 1.400.90
Match goals 2.602.40 2.80
Over 1.5 80%40%
Over 2.5 60%30% 53%
Over 3.5 20%10%
Both teams scored 50%30% 56%
Clean sheets 20%50%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

St. TruidenClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won5.936.67
Corners conceded4.204.53
Match total10.1311.209.54
Over 8.580% 12/1580% 12/15
Over 9.573% 11/1580% 12/15
Over 10.547% 7/1567% 10/15
Cards
Cards1.691.44
Opponent cards2.132.50
Match total3.823.944.02
Over 3.550% 8/1650% 8/16
Over 4.525% 4/1631% 5/16
St. TruidenClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won5.675.89
Corners conceded5.114.78
Match total10.7810.679.54
Over 8.5100% 9/978% 7/9
Over 9.589% 8/978% 7/9
Over 10.556% 5/944% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.901.60
Opponent cards2.002.10
Match total3.903.704.02
Over 3.550% 5/1040% 4/10
Over 4.530% 3/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bram Van Driessche 35 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.17league 3.81
Red cards0.29league 0.19
Cards 5+40%league 42%
Fouls22.2league 23.0
Penalties0.17league 0.29
Home wins49%league 41%
St. Truiden4 with this referee
Record0-0-4 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 2
  • L26 Oct 25A · Union St. Gilloise0–22
  • L14 Sep 25H · KVC Westerlo0–31
  • L18 Feb 24A · Anderlecht1–41
  • L27 Aug 23H · Cercle Brugge0–21
Club Brugge KV2 with this referee
Record2-0-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W29 Oct 23H · Antwerp2–14
  • W16 Sep 23H · Charleroi4–22

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

St. Truiden16 games · scored 23 · conceded 18
1 1 0-15
6 3 16-30
2 5 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 3 61-75
8 3 76-90
Club Brugge KV16 games · scored 22 · conceded 14
2 5 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
5 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
7 4 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1 1 0-15
3 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
3 2 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2 4 0-15
3 1 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
1 2 61-75
2 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
RAAL La Louvière Dender 12 Cercle Brugge Standard Liege 12 Union St. Gilloise Gent 11 St. Truiden Club Brugge KV 32 KV Mechelen Charleroi 10 KVC Westerlo Anderlecht 40 Antwerp Genk 30 OH Leuven Zulte Waregem 11