St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Gent were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 24). St. Truiden had ? days of rest, Gent ? and had to travel.
Matches / 14d0 · 0
St. Truiden32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
St. Truiden32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
St. Truiden32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
St. Truiden26%
Draw26%
Gent48%
St. Truiden32%
Draw27%
Gent41%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.06
- Matches 17
Team strength
St. Truiden
Gent
24
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
37
AttackIn forecast
46
32
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenGent
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
—
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.21
—
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
80%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.20
ShotsContext
12.38
4.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
59%
Box shareContext
69%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.50
12.90
Shots allowedContext
13.25
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.88
3.60
BlocksContext
3.75
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
64%
Save rateContext
74%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
569
PassesContext
468
484
Accurate passesContext
391
85%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.04
9.90
FoulsContext
13.13
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.38
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | — | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
20R. Van Helden
19L. Patris
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
60R. Vanwesemael
9A. Ferrari
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
2S. Kotto
22Leonardo Lopes
18M. Samoise
29Hélio Varela
15A. Ito
17M. Delorge-Knieper
27T. De Vlieger
7A. Kanga
14D. Vanzeir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
No home games yet this season.
Gent · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 St. Truiden wins1 draws0 Gent wins
Goals per game3.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 1 Feb 2024St. Truiden4–1Gent
- 20 Aug 2023Gent2–2St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 55% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| St. Truiden | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 55% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| St. Truiden | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 6.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.13 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 11.38 | 10.29 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.90 | 4.43 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 17 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.47league 4.29
Red cards0.18league 0.14
Cards 5+41%league 43%
Fouls24.6league 24.0
Penalties0.06league 0.29
Home wins29%league 29%
St. Truiden1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D24 Nov 23H · Antwerp1–12
Gent3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W18 Feb 24A · AS Eupen2–01
- W21 Dec 23H · OH Leuven4–00
- L22 Oct 23A · Cercle Brugge0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. TruidenGentSt. Truiden10 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
2
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
