St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for St. Truiden. St. Truiden had 8 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 7.9 and had to travel.
Rest days8 · 7.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
St. Truiden57%
Draw21%
KVC Westerlo22%
St. Truiden52%
Draw24%
KVC Westerlo24%
St. Truiden57%
Draw21%
KVC Westerlo22%
St. Truiden49%
Draw22%
KVC Westerlo29%
St. Truiden56%
Draw21%
KVC Westerlo23%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 12
Team strength
St. Truiden
KVC Westerlo
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
37
AttackIn forecast
42
32
DefenceIn forecast
32
40
Form indexContext
41
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenKVC Westerlo
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.17
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.67
2.21
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
2.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.19
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+1.07
67%
Scored inContext
83%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
17.00
ShotsContext
14.50
5.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
26%
On target shareContext
33%
11.50
Shots in the boxContext
10.33
65%
Box shareContext
71%
12%
ConversionContext
15%
2.20
OffsidesContext
1.20
13.83
Shots allowedContext
14.33
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.83
2.83
BlocksContext
2.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
71%
Save rateContext
54%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
516
PassesContext
444
436
Accurate passesContext
367
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.68
9.67
FoulsContext
13.33
9.17
Fouls sufferedContext
10.33
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.30
1.92
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.73
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.87
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.43
80%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
15.63
ShotsContext
14.30
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
26%
On target shareContext
30%
10.63
Shots in the boxContext
9.50
66%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.29
OffsidesContext
1.25
13.75
Shots allowedContext
14.10
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
3.50
BlocksContext
3.20
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
69%
Save rateContext
57%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
498
PassesContext
441
421
Accurate passesContext
370
84%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.67
10.10
FoulsContext
12.20
8.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
DWLWL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 40 · 7 pts vs 8.2 for an average club · -0.7 vs expected
KVC Westerlo
LLDWW
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 41 · 7 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +2.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | — | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 5 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.1 | 21.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
5S. Taniguchi
60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako
14R. Merlen
10I. Sebaoui
71R. Araki
38Kaito Matsuzawa
9S. Baždar
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
28Dylan Ourega
4A. Lapage
5Seiji Kimura
2L. Flø
14C. Sandra
45I. Fofana
7Shunsuke Saito
13I. Sakamoto
20C. Congreve
9N. Bassette
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
KVC Westerlo · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–3 H | L 1–5 H |
| Lommel United | D 1–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Points | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game | 0 of 6 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 St. Truiden wins1 draws1 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 6 Feb 2026KVC Westerlo0–4St. Truiden
- 14 Sep 2025St. Truiden0–3KVC Westerlo
- 24 Feb 2024St. Truiden1–0KVC Westerlo
- 10 Nov 2023KVC Westerlo3–3St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 2.67 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 4.83 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 100% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 17% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 3.30 | 3.44 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 8.83 | 9.84 | 10.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 2/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 1.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.17 | 1.33 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| St. Truiden | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 9.90 | 10.12 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.10 | 3.24 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Massimiliano Ledda 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.08
Red cards0.33league 0.13
Cards 5+42%league 27%
Fouls23.7league 22.2
Penalties0.17league 0.27
Home wins50%league 50%
St. Truiden2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W18 Jan 26H · OH Leuven1–03
- W8 Aug 25H · Dender2–03
KVC Westerlo2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L23 May 26A · Antwerp0–22
- D18 Oct 25A · RAAL La Louvière0–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden6 games · scored 12 · conceded 10
2
0-15
3
16-30
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo6 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
6
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 19 · conceded 17
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
4
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 15 · conceded 23
7
0-15
1
4
16-30
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
7
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
