St. Truiden
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
St. Truiden56.6%fair odds 1.77
Draw21.5%fair odds 4.65
KVC Westerlo22.0%fair odds 4.56
Expected goals2.15 – 1.29total 3.44
Likeliest score2–19.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KVC Westerlo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| St. Truiden ↓ · KVC Westerlo → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are St. Truiden goals, columns KVC Westerlo goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–19.6%10.46
- 1–19.4%10.67
- 2–07.4%13.49
- 3–16.8%14.60
- 1–06.4%15.55
- 2–26.2%16.22
- 1–25.7%17.42
- 3–05.3%18.83
- 3–24.4%22.65
- 0–03.7%27.14
Winning margin
17.8%
St. Truiden by 3+
fair 5.60
17.1%
St. Truiden by 2
fair 5.84
21.6%
St. Truiden by 1
fair 4.63
21.5%
Draw
fair 4.65
12.8%
KVC Westerlo by 1
fair 7.83
6.2%
KVC Westerlo by 2
fair 16.21
3.0%
KVC Westerlo by 3+
fair 33.15
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
10%1
19%2
22%3
19%4
26%5+
St. Truiden goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
KVC Westerlo goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden win | 56.6% | 55.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 21.5% | 21.8% | -0.4 pp |
| KVC Westerlo win | 22.0% | 22.3% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 66.8% | 65.6% | +1.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.5% | 63.7% | +0.7 pp |
| Expected goals St. Truiden | 2.15 | 2.10 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals KVC Westerlo | 1.29 | 1.28 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- St. Truiden win56.6%1.77
- Draw21.5%4.65
- KVC Westerlo win22.0%4.56
- Double chance St. Truiden or draw78.0%1.28
- Double chance St. Truiden or KVC Westerlo78.5%1.27
- Double chance KVC Westerlo or draw43.4%2.30
- Draw no bet St. Truiden72.0%1.39
- Draw no bet KVC Westerlo28.0%3.58
Goals
- Over 0.596.3%1.04
- Over 1.586.2%1.16
- Over 2.566.8%1.50
- Over 3.545.0%2.22
- Over 4.526.3%3.80
- Under 1.513.8%7.25
- Under 2.533.2%3.01
- Under 3.555.0%1.82
Both teams to score
- Yes64.5%1.55
- No35.5%2.82
- Yes and over 2.555.1%1.81
- St. Truiden win and yes32.7%3.06
- Draw and yes17.8%5.62
- KVC Westerlo win and yes14.0%7.16
Team goals
- St. Truiden over 0.588.3%1.13
- St. Truiden over 1.563.3%1.58
- St. Truiden over 2.536.3%2.75
- KVC Westerlo over 0.572.5%1.38
- KVC Westerlo over 1.536.9%2.71
- KVC Westerlo over 2.514.0%7.12
- St. Truiden clean sheet27.5%3.63
- KVC Westerlo clean sheet11.7%8.57
- St. Truiden win to nil23.9%4.19
- KVC Westerlo win to nil8.0%12.53
Handicap
- St. Truiden −1.535.0%2.86
- St. Truiden −2.517.8%5.60
- KVC Westerlo +1.565.0%1.54
- KVC Westerlo +2.582.2%1.22
- KVC Westerlo −1.59.2%10.89
- St. Truiden +1.590.8%1.10
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored60
Favourite won63.3%
Avg chance given to result45.5%
1X2 Brier0.497
Over 2.5 called right56.7%
BTTS called right45.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 38.5% | 20.0% |
| 40–50% | 27 | 45.6% | 48.1% |
| 50–60% | 16 | 54.8% | 81.3% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 64.8% | 85.7% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 83.4% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 36 of 60 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5036 | 0.5034 |
| Avg chance given to result | 44.7% | 44.6% |
| Favourite won | 63.9% | 66.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 36 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Antwerp 0–2 Union St. Gilloise17·19·64
- ✓Anderlecht 3–0 Zulte Waregem49·24·27
- ✗Lommel United 0–0 KV Mechelen55·24·22
- ✓Charleroi 3–2 Cercle Brugge58·22·20
- ✓OH Leuven 2–0 RAAL La Louvière41·26·33
- ✓Gent 2–1 Standard Liege54·23·22
- ✓RAAL La Louvière 3–0 Kortrijk49·25·26
- ✗Zulte Waregem 0–1 Charleroi44·25·31
- ✗Genk 1–1 Gent48·25·27
- ✓Club Brugge KV 3–1 Antwerp74·15·11
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 60 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.