St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
St. Truiden were clear favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 18). St. Truiden usually keep the ball (53% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. St. Truiden had 3 days of rest, RAAL La Louvière 7.2 and had to travel.
Rest days3 · 7.2Matches / 14d3 · 1
St. Truiden65%
Draw19%
RAAL La Louvière16%
St. Truiden61%
Draw22%
RAAL La Louvière17%
St. Truiden65%
Draw19%
RAAL La Louvière16%
St. Truiden57%
Draw22%
RAAL La Louvière21%
St. Truiden64%
Draw19%
RAAL La Louvière16%
Over 2.5 62%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 27
Team strength
St. Truiden
RAAL La Louvière
41
L90 StrengthIn forecast
18
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
17
37
AttackIn forecast
15
32
DefenceIn forecast
15
39
Form indexContext
12
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRAAL La Louvière
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenRAAL La Louvière
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
2.21
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
2.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.79
-0.21
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
75%
Scored inContext
75%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
17.00
ShotsContext
10.50
4.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.25
28%
On target shareContext
41%
10.50
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
60%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
3.33
15.75
Shots allowedContext
16.75
5.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
3.00
BlocksContext
4.25
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
70%
Save rateContext
62%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
36%
463
PassesContext
330
383
Accurate passesContext
246
83%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.78
Team ratingContext
6.71
10.50
FoulsContext
12.25
9.25
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.75
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.13
1.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
80%
Scored inContext
50%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.25
ShotsContext
11.60
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
27%
On target shareContext
32%
8.63
Shots in the boxContext
8.78
58%
Box shareContext
70%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.63
15.50
Shots allowedContext
13.10
5.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.00
BlocksContext
3.30
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.56
67%
Save rateContext
58%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
475
PassesContext
336
398
Accurate passesContext
258
84%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.00
FoulsContext
11.30
8.20
Fouls sufferedContext
10.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
DDWL
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 39 · 5 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
RAAL La Louvière
LLLD
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 12 · 1 pts vs 6.6 for an average club · -3.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
RAAL La Louvière |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 2 Sep | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 6 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 7.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
5S. Taniguchi
60R. Vanwesemael
14R. Merlen
8A. Sissako
10I. Sebaoui
71R. Araki
38Kaito Matsuzawa
9S. Baždar
RAAL La Louvière
Confirmed XI
21M. Peano(G)
99Y. Okou
33P. Nkoa
44M. Boukamir
5T. Lutonda
48I. Coulibaly
29M. Courcoul
18S. Delos
11M. Ubandoma
9E. Filet
30Z. Gruber
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
RAAL La Louvière
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- RAAL La Louvière+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
RAAL La Louvière · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 St. Truiden wins0 draws0 RAAL La Louvière wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 24 Jan 2026RAAL La Louvière1–2St. Truiden
- 17 Aug 2025St. Truiden2–1RAAL La Louvière
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 75% | 75% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 75% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| St. Truiden | RAAL La Louvière | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.00 | 3.18 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 62% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.25 | 2.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 7.75 | 8.25 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.75 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| St. Truiden | RAAL La Louvière | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 9.00 | 9.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.87 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 27 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.74league 2.74
Red cards0.15league 0.13
Cards 5+22%league 21%
Fouls21.6league 21.8
Penalties0.26league 0.26
Home wins44%league 46%
St. Truiden4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- W8 Mar 26H · Cercle Brugge2–10
- L31 Jan 26H · Charleroi0–23
- W23 Nov 25A · OH Leuven2–12
- W17 Aug 25H · RAAL La Louvière2–11
RAAL La Louvière3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L3 May 26A · Dender1–21
- D26 Oct 25A · Genk1–13
- L17 Aug 25A · St. Truiden1–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden4 games · scored 8 · conceded 8
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
RAAL La Louvière4 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 16 · conceded 18
2
1
0-15
1
6
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
4
1
61-75
5
4
76-90
RAAL La Louvière10 games · scored 9 · conceded 21
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
4
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
6
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
