Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Mar 22 · 17:30 Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, St.-Trond
St. Truiden 3rd · 57 pts · 29 played
First leg0–2 1–3Full time
Union St. Gilloise 1st · 63 pts · 29 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (60 vs 41). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for St. Truiden. St. Truiden had 7.2 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 8 and had to travel.

Rest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
St. Truiden36%
Draw30%
Union St. Gilloise35%
Expected goals 1.17 – 1.15
St. Truiden33%
Draw27%
Union St. Gilloise40%
Expected goals 1.26 – 1.42
St. Truiden36%
Draw30%
Union St. Gilloise35%
Expected goals 1.17 – 1.15
St. Truiden29%
Draw29%
Union St. Gilloise41%
Expected goals 1.05 – 1.29
St. Truiden35%
Draw30%
Union St. Gilloise35%
Expected goals 1.15 – 1.15
Over 2.5 41% Both score 48% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)

No weather data yet

RefereeJasper Vergoote
  • Cards per match 3.9
  • Penalties per match 0.44
  • Matches 48

Team strength

St. TruidenUnion St. Gilloise
41 L90 StrengthIn forecast 60
35 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
37 AttackIn forecast 62
32 DefenceIn forecast 74
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

St. Truiden

Attack—
Defense risk—

Union St. Gilloise

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

St. TruidenUnion St. Gilloise
1.59 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.62
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.55
1.63 xGVia Att/Def 1.63
1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.75
-0.04 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
79% Scored inContext 83%
24% Clean sheetsContext 48%
13.86 ShotsContext 14.31
4.45 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.14
32% On target shareContext 36%
9.00 Shots in the boxContext 10.88
63% Box shareContext 72%
11% ConversionContext 11%
2.67 OffsidesContext 3.29
11.69 Shots allowedContext 7.93
4.07 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.92
3.48 BlocksContext 2.30
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.43
74% Save rateContext 79%
55% PossessionIn forecast 54%
456 PassesContext 427
376 Accurate passesContext 345
82% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.94 Team ratingContext 7.01
11.10 FoulsContext 12.45
11.14 Fouls sufferedContext 9.21
1.69 Yellow cardsContext 2.31
0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.60
1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.22
0.92 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.06
+0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.12
70% Scored inContext 70%
20% Clean sheetsContext 50%
14.40 ShotsContext 11.70
4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60
33% On target shareContext 31%
8.60 Shots in the boxContext 8.10
57% Box shareContext 69%
13% ConversionContext 9%
2.25 OffsidesContext 3.88
11.70 Shots allowedContext 8.20
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.50
4.11 BlocksContext 2.67
2.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.11
77% Save rateContext 79%
59% PossessionIn forecast 49%
503 PassesContext 403
416 Accurate passesContext 319
83% Pass accuracyContext 79%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.95
9.00 FoulsContext 11.90
11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 9.80
1.40 Yellow cardsContext 2.40
0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

St. Truiden
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Union St. Gilloise
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
St. Truiden Union St. Gilloise
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Mar8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km—
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 2 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one139.1135

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.

Squad & lineups

St. Truiden Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata 4L. Mbe Soh 5S. Taniguchi 60R. Vanwesemael
8A. Sissako 6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui 13R. Ito 7A. Muja
42Keisuke Goto
Union St. Gilloise Confirmed XI
3-4-3
1V. Chambaere(G)
48F. Leysen 16C. Burgess 26R. Sykes
11G. da Silva Carvalho 8A. Zorgane 17R. Schoofs 25A. Khalaili
10A. Ait El Hadj 9Mateo Biondic 23B. Zeneli

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
St. Truiden Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • St. Truiden+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

St. Truiden · Home 2.21points per game · 14 home games
W-D-L
10-1-3
Scored
1.57
Conceded
1.14
Union St. Gilloise · Away 1.43points per game · 14 away games
W-D-L
4-8-2
Scored
1.07
Conceded
0.79

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentSt. TruidenUnion St. Gilloise
Genk L 0–1 AL 1–2 H W 2–1 HW 2–1 A
Cercle Brugge W 2–1 HD 1–1 A D 1–1 AW 2–0 H
Antwerp L 0–1 AW 1–0 H W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
Dender W 4–1 AW 2–0 H W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
Zulte Waregem W 3–2 HW 2–0 A W 2–0 HW 4–1 A
KVC Westerlo W 4–0 AL 0–3 H D 0–0 AW 2–0 H
Charleroi L 0–2 HD 1–1 A D 1–1 AW 3–1 H
RAAL La Louvière W 2–1 AW 2–1 H W 2–1 HD 0–0 A
OH Leuven W 1–0 HW 2–1 A D 0–0 AW 5–0 H
Standard Liege W 2–1 AW 1–0 H D 1–1 AW 3–0 H
KV Mechelen W 1–0 HW 3–1 A W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Anderlecht L 1–2 AD 2–2 H L 0–1 AW 2–0 H
Club Brugge KV W 3–2 HL 0–2 A W 1–0 HL 0–1 A
Gent W 2–1 AW 3–1 H D 1–1 HW 3–2 A
Points57 of 84 · 2.04 per game60 of 84 · 2.14 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 St. Truiden wins0 draws3 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.67 Over 2.567% Both scored33% Clean sheets0% · 67%
  • 26 Oct 2025Union St. Gilloise2–0St. Truiden
  • 21 Jan 2024Union St. Gilloise2–1St. Truiden
  • 8 Oct 2023St. Truiden0–4Union St. Gilloise

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

St. TruidenUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.591.62
Conceded per game 1.100.55
Match goals 2.692.17 2.33
Over 1.5 79%72%
Over 2.5 55%31% 41%
Over 3.5 24%14%
Both teams scored 55%45% 48%
Clean sheets 24%48%
Failed to score 21%17%
Games2929
St. TruidenUnion St. GilloiseForecast
Scored per game 1.801.20
Conceded per game 1.000.50
Match goals 2.801.70 2.33
Over 1.5 70%60%
Over 2.5 60%30% 41%
Over 3.5 30%0%
Both teams scored 50%50% 48%
Clean sheets 20%50%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

St. TruidenUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won5.685.59
Corners conceded4.503.59
Match total10.189.189.91
Over 8.571% 20/2856% 15/27
Over 9.568% 19/2852% 14/27
Over 10.554% 15/2833% 9/27
Cards
Cards1.762.34
Opponent cards2.452.24
Match total4.214.584.06
Over 3.559% 17/2966% 19/29
Over 4.528% 8/2966% 19/29
St. TruidenUnion St. GilloiseLeague
Corners
Corners won5.805.78
Corners conceded4.503.00
Match total10.308.789.91
Over 8.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 9.570% 7/1056% 5/9
Over 10.570% 7/1022% 2/9
Cards
Cards1.502.40
Opponent cards3.002.50
Match total4.504.904.06
Over 3.570% 7/1080% 8/10
Over 4.530% 3/1070% 7/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jasper Vergoote 48 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.84
Red cards0.27league 0.19
Cards 5+29%league 40%
Fouls23.6league 22.7
Penalties0.44league 0.32
Home wins56%league 41%
St. Truiden4 with this referee
Record4-0-0 Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 0
  • W26 Dec 25A · Standard Liege2–12
  • W4 Oct 25A · KV Mechelen3–11
  • W17 Sep 23H · KV Mechelen2–01
  • W30 Jul 23H · Standard Liege1–01
Union St. Gilloise6 with this referee
Record4-2-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 3.2 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds1
  • W31 Aug 25H · Anderlecht2–01
  • W9 Aug 25A · Gent3–24
  • D28 Jan 24A · Anderlecht2–22
  • D26 Dec 23A · Club Brugge KV1–17
  • W5 Nov 23H · Club Brugge KV2–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

St. Truiden29 games · scored 46 · conceded 32
4 2 0-15
9 8 16-30
9 5 31-45
4 6 46-60
6 7 61-75
14 4 76-90
Union St. Gilloise29 games · scored 47 · conceded 16
5 4 0-15
5 16-30
8 3 31-45
7 3 46-60
8 1 61-75
14 5 76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
2 1 0-15
2 4 16-30
6 31-45
3 46-60
3 1 61-75
5 1 76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 11 · conceded 6
1 2 0-15
1 16-30
2 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 1 61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Antwerp 10 Anderlecht Cercle Brugge 23 Club Brugge KV KV Mechelen 41 Zulte Waregem Charleroi 10 Standard Liege KVC Westerlo 00 St. Truiden Union St. Gilloise 13 RAAL La Louvière Genk 55 Dender Gent 13