St. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
St. Truiden
3rd · 48 pts · 24 played
WWWLW
First leg2–0
3–2Full time
Zulte Waregem
12th · 29 pts · 24 played
LWLLW
Our take
St. Truiden were slight favourites.
St. Truiden were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for St. Truiden. St. Truiden had 8.9 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 8.1 and had to travel.
Rest days8.9 · 8.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
St. Truiden58%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem18%
St. Truiden53%
Draw25%
Zulte Waregem22%
St. Truiden58%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem18%
St. Truiden51%
Draw26%
Zulte Waregem24%
St. Truiden58%
Draw24%
Zulte Waregem19%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (St.-Trond)
No weather data yet
RefereeNathan Verboomen
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 37
Team strength
St. TruidenZulte Waregem
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
35
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
37
AttackIn forecast
27
32
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
St. TruidenZulte Waregem
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
1.08
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
83%
Scored inContext
75%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
14.08
ShotsContext
11.33
4.42
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
31%
On target shareContext
36%
9.52
Shots in the boxContext
7.64
67%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.71
OffsidesContext
1.94
11.38
Shots allowedContext
12.79
3.96
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.46
3.23
BlocksContext
3.32
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
73%
Save rateContext
68%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
441
PassesContext
394
363
Accurate passesContext
319
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.79
FoulsContext
10.46
11.17
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
1.54
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.10
ShotsContext
10.60
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
34%
On target shareContext
34%
9.33
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
67%
Box shareContext
64%
14%
ConversionContext
10%
2.33
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
10.90
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.44
BlocksContext
3.11
3.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.40
74%
Save rateContext
71%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
441
PassesContext
408
364
Accurate passesContext
329
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.90
FoulsContext
9.20
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
St. Truiden
Rest8.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest8.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| St. Truiden |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Feb | 8.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
18S. Juklerød
4L. Mbe Soh
5S. Taniguchi
3T. Hata
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
60R. Vanwesemael
42Keisuke Goto
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
31L. Willen
5Jakob Kiilerich
45Benoit De Jaegere
17E. Soglo
8T. Claes
6E. Lofolomo
19Benoit Nyssen
10Jeppe Erenbjerg
18A. Ementa
22J. Opoku
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
St. Truiden · Home
2.08points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-1-3
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.08
Zulte Waregem · Away
0.92points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | St. Truiden | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| KVC Westerlo | W 4–0 AL 0–3 H | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Charleroi | L 0–2 HD 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–1 AW 2–1 H | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| OH Leuven | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Standard Liege | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | W 1–0 HW 3–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 1–2 AD 2–2 H | W 3–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | W 3–2 HL 0–2 A | L 3–4 AL 0–1 H |
| Gent | W 2–1 AW 3–1 H | W 4–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–2 A | L 0–2 AL 1–4 H |
| Genk | L 1–2 H | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Cercle Brugge | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Dender | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Points | 45 of 69 · 1.96 per game | 29 of 69 · 1.26 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 St. Truiden wins0 draws0 Zulte Waregem wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 0%
- 23 Aug 2025Zulte Waregem0–2St. Truiden
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| St. Truiden | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.08 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.63 | 2.79 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 46% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 63% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 25% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| St. Truiden | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.50 | 2.80 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| St. Truiden | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.39 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.48 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 9.87 | 10.00 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 16/23 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 65% 15/23 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 11/23 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 2.17 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 3.80 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 15/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 7/24 | 42% 10/24 | |
| St. Truiden | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.25 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 5.10 | 4.00 | 4.14 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nathan Verboomen 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.65league 3.92
Red cards0.22league 0.19
Cards 5+51%league 42%
Fouls22.3league 22.9
Penalties0.11league 0.30
Home wins49%league 40%
St. Truiden3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Nov 25H · Antwerp1–03
- W1 Feb 24H · Gent4–12
- D3 Nov 23H · AS Eupen1–11
Zulte Waregem2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L20 Dec 25A · Union St. Gilloise0–22
- W13 Sep 25H · OH Leuven2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
St. Truiden24 games · scored 37 · conceded 26
4
1
0-15
7
5
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
5
7
61-75
11
4
76-90
Zulte Waregem24 games · scored 32 · conceded 35
3
7
0-15
6
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
3
7
46-60
3
5
61-75
10
8
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 18 · conceded 10
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
3
1
76-90
Zulte Waregem10 games · scored 11 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
