Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Stade Brestois 29
11th · 19 pts · 16 played
LWWWL
2–0Full time
Auxerre
17th · 12 pts · 16 played
LDDWL
Our take
Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.
Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (39 vs 23). Stade Brestois 29 had 22 days of rest, Auxerre 21 and had to travel 602 km.
Away travel602 kmRest days22 · 21Matches / 14d0 · 0
Stade Brestois 2955%
Draw25%
Auxerre20%
Stade Brestois 2955%
Draw24%
Auxerre21%
Stade Brestois 2954%
Draw25%
Auxerre20%
Stade Brestois 2948%
Draw27%
Auxerre26%
Stade Brestois 2956%
Draw24%
Auxerre20%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremy Stinat
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 83
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29Auxerre
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
47
AttackIn forecast
39
36
DefenceIn forecast
25
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAuxerre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Auxerre
1.31
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.88
1.69
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.56
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.12
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
63%
Scored inContext
56%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
19%
12.06
ShotsContext
10.94
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.69
33%
On target shareContext
34%
7.69
Shots in the boxContext
6.67
64%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.82
OffsidesContext
2.63
11.75
Shots allowedContext
10.69
4.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
3.20
BlocksContext
2.46
2.93
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.94
63%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
375
PassesContext
366
298
Accurate passesContext
298
80%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.71
13.19
FoulsContext
13.69
10.94
Fouls sufferedContext
13.88
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.13
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.19
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
50%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.90
ShotsContext
11.60
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
36%
On target shareContext
34%
6.80
Shots in the boxContext
7.11
62%
Box shareContext
60%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.83
10.80
Shots allowedContext
9.80
4.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
2.30
BlocksContext
1.88
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.80
63%
Save rateContext
65%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
381
PassesContext
381
308
Accurate passesContext
316
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.66
Team ratingContext
6.67
13.80
FoulsContext
14.30
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest22 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Auxerre
Rest21 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel602 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Auxerre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22Ligue 1 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 21Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 602 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
44S. Coulibaly
5B. Chardonnet
12T. Zogbé
14R. Labeau-Lascary
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
17M. Baldé
Auxerre
Confirmed XI
16D. Léon(G)
14G. Mensah
20S. Diomandé
29M. Senaya
27L. Sy
5K. Danois
42E. Owusu
34R. Matondo
23I. Osman
9S. Mara
7J. Casimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Auxerre
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Auxerre-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.38
Auxerre · Away
0.29points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-5
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 A |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Marseille | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lyon | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| LE Havre | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 A |
| Lorient | D 3–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Nantes | D 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| Nice | W 4–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Lens | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lille | D 3–3 H | L 3–4 H |
| Points | 19 of 48 · 1.19 per game | 12 of 48 · 0.75 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Stade Brestois 29 wins2 draws1 Auxerre wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 14 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 292–2Auxerre
- 27 Sep 2024Auxerre3–0Stade Brestois 29
- 14 May 2023Stade Brestois 291–0Auxerre
- 2 Oct 2022Auxerre1–1Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.31 | 0.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.69 | 1.56 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.44 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 63% | 44% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 19% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 44% | |
| Games | 16 | 16 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Auxerre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.70 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 50% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 4.94 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.87 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.19 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 6/15 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 6/15 | 38% 6/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 6/15 | 31% 5/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.88 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.56 | 2.88 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 5.38 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 44% 7/16 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 31% 5/16 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Auxerre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.11 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.11 | 8.80 | 9.36 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 5.20 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremy Stinat France · 83 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.69
Red cards0.23league 0.36
Cards 5+36%league 36%
Fouls24.6league 24.2
Penalties0.30league 0.47
Home wins41%league 50%
Stade Brestois 2910 with this referee
Record1-5-4
Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 2
- L27 Sep 24A · Auxerre0–30
- D4 Feb 24H · Nice0–03
- L26 Aug 23A · Marseille0–21
- D23 Apr 23A · Ajaccio0–02
- L1 Jan 23A · Monaco0–14
Auxerre6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.5
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- L23 Aug 25A · Nice1–33
- W22 Feb 25H · Marseille3–01
- D14 Dec 24H · Lens2–23
- D27 Oct 24A · Lyon2–24
- W27 Sep 24H · Stade Brestois 293–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 2916 games · scored 21 · conceded 27
4
5
0-15
3
6
16-30
4
3
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
7
76-90
Auxerre16 games · scored 14 · conceded 25
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
7
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 10 · conceded 16
2
3
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
5
76-90
Auxerre10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
