Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Stade Brestois 29
12th · 27 pts · 22 played
LLDWD
2–0Full time
Marseille
4th · 40 pts · 22 played
WWDLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Stade Brestois 29. Stade Brestois 29 had 6.1 days of rest, Marseille 6.2 and had to travel 950 km.
Away travel950 kmRest days6.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 2
Stade Brestois 2937%
Draw26%
Marseille37%
Stade Brestois 2933%
Draw27%
Marseille40%
Stade Brestois 2937%
Draw27%
Marseille37%
Stade Brestois 2930%
Draw26%
Marseille44%
Stade Brestois 2938%
Draw26%
Marseille36%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceRomain Lissorgue
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 53
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29Marseille
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
58
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
45
47
AttackIn forecast
48
36
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Marseille
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.18
1.55
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.25
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.44
68%
Scored inContext
77%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
11.50
ShotsContext
13.64
3.86
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
34%
On target shareContext
40%
7.09
Shots in the boxContext
8.68
63%
Box shareContext
64%
12%
ConversionContext
16%
1.64
OffsidesContext
1.44
12.32
Shots allowedContext
10.00
4.52
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.14
3.67
BlocksContext
2.84
2.95
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
65%
Save rateContext
70%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
370
PassesContext
557
292
Accurate passesContext
497
79%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.96
13.32
FoulsContext
12.18
11.18
Fouls sufferedContext
10.14
1.77
Yellow cardsContext
2.05
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.18
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.42
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
90%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.10
ShotsContext
13.70
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
38%
On target shareContext
42%
6.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.10
55%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
12%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.63
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.80
3.50
BlocksContext
2.89
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
68%
Save rateContext
56%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
367
PassesContext
517
288
Accurate passesContext
452
78%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.78
14.50
FoulsContext
12.00
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,210 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel950 km1,321 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Feb | 6.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 14 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 950 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,210 km | 1,321 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
27D. Guindo
4M. Diaz
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
13J. Chotard
8H. Magnetti
7É. Dina Ebimbe
23K. Doumbia
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
33Emerson
21N. Aguerd
28B. Pavard
22T. Weah
23P. Højbjerg
14Igor Paixão
27Q. Timber
18A. Vermeeren
10M. Greenwood
9A. Gouiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29+0.0 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Marseille+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.64points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-3-3
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 1.18
Marseille · Away
1.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-5
- Scored
- 1.73
- Conceded
- 1.45
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Lille | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A | W 4–0 H |
| Nice | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H | W 5–1 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Lyon | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | W 1–0 A |
| Rennes | L 1–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Monaco | W 1–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 A | D 2–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Metz | W 3–2 H | W 3–0 A |
| LE Havre | L 0–1 A | W 6–2 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 H | L 0–5 AW 1–0 H |
| Nantes | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Angers | W 2–0 A | W 5–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 H | D 2–2 AW 5–2 H |
| Lens | L 1–3 A | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Points | 27 of 63 · 1.29 per game | 37 of 63 · 1.76 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Stade Brestois 29 wins1 draws5 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.33
Over 2.567%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 8 Nov 2025Marseille3–0Stade Brestois 29
- 27 Apr 2025Marseille4–1Stade Brestois 29
- 17 Aug 2024Stade Brestois 291–5Marseille
- 18 Feb 2024Stade Brestois 291–0Marseille
- 26 Aug 2023Marseille2–0Stade Brestois 29
- 27 May 2023Marseille1–2Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 2.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.55 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 3.50 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 82% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 55% | 68% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 23% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 3.80 | 2.83 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 70% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.55 | 4.62 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 3.86 | |
| Match total | 9.75 | 8.48 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 10/20 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 29% 6/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 10/20 | 19% 4/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.91 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.68 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 3.59 | 3.91 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 45% 10/22 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 8/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.63 | 4.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.13 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.76 | 8.40 | 9.21 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 63% 5/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 63% 5/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.80 | 3.96 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Romain Lissorgue France · 53 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.68league 3.64
Red cards0.36league 0.31
Cards 5+38%league 36%
Fouls26.0league 24.0
Penalties0.34league 0.40
Home wins53%league 49%
Stade Brestois 299 with this referee
Record6-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.9
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds2
- L18 Jan 26A · Lyon1–21
- W4 May 25H · Montpellier1–01
- W26 Jan 25A · LE Havre1–03
- W30 Nov 24H · Strasbourg3–13
- W10 Dec 23A · Metz1–02
Marseille1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D4 Oct 24H · Angers1–14
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 2922 games · scored 29 · conceded 34
5
5
0-15
4
7
16-30
5
6
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
7
7
76-90
Marseille22 games · scored 48 · conceded 29
6
3
0-15
9
4
16-30
6
3
31-45
6
3
46-60
9
5
61-75
12
11
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
4
46-60
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 16 · conceded 22
4
4
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
6
61-75
2
8
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
