Stade Brestois 29 vs Metz – 23 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 13 Sun, Nov 23 · 16:15 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 15th · 10 pts · 12 played DLLDL

3–2Full time

Metz 14th · 11 pts · 12 played LLWWW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.

Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (36 vs 18). Stade Brestois 29 had 15 days of rest, Metz 14 and had to travel 782 km.

Away travel782 kmRest days15 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 1

Stade Brestois 2957%

Draw24%

Metz19%

Expected goals 1.81 – 0.94

Stade Brestois 2957%

Draw24%

Metz19%

Expected goals 1.84 – 0.97

Stade Brestois 2956%

Draw24%

Metz19%

Expected goals 1.78 – 0.95

Stade Brestois 2950%

Draw26%

Metz24%

Expected goals 1.61 – 1.06

Stade Brestois 2958%

Draw23%

Metz19%

Expected goals 1.87 – 0.96

Over 2.5 52% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brest)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceGael Angoula

Cards per match 3.2
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 26

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29

Metz

36 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 12

47 AttackIn forecast 11

36 DefenceIn forecast 17

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Metz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29

Metz

1.17 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.25

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.18

1.43 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.80

-0.26 Goals minus xGContext -0.18

50% Scored inContext 58%

25% Clean sheetsContext 25%

11.83 ShotsContext 8.58

3.58 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

30% On target shareContext 34%

7.83 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

69% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.67 OffsidesContext 1.44

12.50 Shots allowedContext 14.42

5.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.67

3.82 BlocksContext 3.00

3.18 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.75

64% Save rateContext 66%

44% PossessionIn forecast 49%

371 PassesContext 437

295 Accurate passesContext 376

79% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.73

12.33 FoulsContext 11.08

10.67 Fouls sufferedContext 12.25

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.33

0.08 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 12 and 12 games

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.33

1.46 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.83

-0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

50% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.80 ShotsContext 9.00

3.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.67

33% On target shareContext 37%

7.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.44

70% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 13%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.29

13.40 Shots allowedContext 15.10

5.11 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.60

3.80 BlocksContext 3.11

3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.80

67% Save rateContext 68%

43% PossessionIn forecast 50%

368 PassesContext 441

293 Accurate passesContext 379

80% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.80 FoulsContext 10.20

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 12.10

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.20

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29

Rest15 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Metz

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel782 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Stade Brestois 29	Metz
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	15Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Nov	14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 9 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	782 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	5.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30G. Coudert(G)

27D. Guindo 44S. Coulibaly 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

99P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo

19L. Ajorque

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Metz Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Jonathan Fischer(G)

2M. Colin 15T. Yegbe 5J. Gbamin 39K. Kouao

20J. Deminguet 12Alpha Touré

7G. Tsitaishvili 10G. Hein 14C. Sabaly

99J. Asoro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Stade Brestois 29 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Metz Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Stade Brestois 29+0.7 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Metz-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 1.00points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 1-3-2
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.50

Metz · Away 0.50points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-5
Scored: 1.17
Conceded: 3.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Stade Brestois 29	Metz
Marseille	L 0–3 A	L 0–3 H
Lyon	D 0–0 H	L 0–3 A
LE Havre	L 0–1 A	D 0–0 H
Nantes	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 A
Angers	W 2–0 A	D 1–1 H
Nice	W 4–1 H	W 2–1 H
Paris FC	L 1–2 H	L 2–3 A
Lens	L 1–3 A	W 2–0 H
Toulouse	L 0–2 A	L 0–4 A
Lille	D 3–3 H	L 1–6 A
Points	9 of 30 · 0.90 per game	11 of 30 · 1.10 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings

3 Stade Brestois 29 wins0 draws1 Metz wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.25 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 0%

7 Apr 2024Stade Brestois 294–3Metz
10 Dec 2023Metz0–1Stade Brestois 29
24 Apr 2022Metz0–1Stade Brestois 29
26 Sep 2021Stade Brestois 291–2Metz

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Stade Brestois 29	Metz	Forecast
Scored per game	1.17	1.00
Conceded per game	1.75	2.25
Match goals	2.92	3.25	2.75
Over 1.5	75%	83%
Over 2.5	58%	58%	52%
Over 3.5	33%	33%
Both teams scored	42%	42%	52%
Clean sheets	25%	25%
Failed to score	50%	42%
Games	12	12

	Stade Brestois 29	Metz	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.20
Conceded per game	1.60	2.30
Match goals	2.70	3.50	2.75
Over 1.5	70%	90%
Over 2.5	60%	60%	52%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	40%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	50%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Stade Brestois 29	Metz	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.08
Corners conceded	5.25	5.50
Match total	9.75	9.58	9.45
Over 8.5	42% 5/12	42% 5/12
Over 9.5	42% 5/12	25% 3/12
Over 10.5	42% 5/12	25% 3/12
Cards
Cards	1.58	1.58
Opponent cards	1.33	1.58
Match total	2.91	3.16	4.20
Over 3.5	33% 4/12	50% 6/12
Over 4.5	17% 2/12	25% 3/12

	Stade Brestois 29	Metz	League
Corners
Corners won	4.30	4.30
Corners conceded	5.80	5.90
Match total	10.10	10.20	9.45
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.50
Opponent cards	1.50	1.70
Match total	3.10	3.20	4.20
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Gael Angoula France · 26 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.04league 3.84

Red cards0.19league 0.33

Cards 5+15%league 38%

Fouls20.7league 24.2

Penalties0.35league 0.49

Home wins50%league 51%

Stade Brestois 295 with this referee

Record4-1-0 Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.4 Pens for · against3 · 0

D4 Oct 25H · Nantes0–02
W15 Dec 24H · Nantes4–13
W31 Aug 24H · Saint Etienne4–00
W17 Sep 23A · Reims2–14
W4 Dec 21A · Marseille2–12

Metz7 with this referee

Record3-0-4 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.4 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

W2 Nov 25A · Nantes2–02
L31 Aug 25A · Paris FC2–32
L19 May 24H · Paris Saint Germain0–22
W10 Mar 24H · Clermont Foot1–01
L3 Dec 23A · Lille0–20

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.