Stade Brestois 29
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Stade Brestois 2957.2%fair odds 1.75
Draw24.0%fair odds 4.16
Metz18.8%fair odds 5.32
Expected goals1.81 – 0.94total 2.75
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Metz
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Stade Brestois 29 ↓ · Metz → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Stade Brestois 29 goals, columns Metz goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.73
- 1–011.0%9.12
- 2–010.4%9.58
- 2–19.8%10.16
- 0–07.0%14.38
- 3–06.3%15.88
- 3–15.9%16.84
- 0–15.4%18.39
- 1–25.1%19.49
- 2–24.6%21.55
Winning margin
15.3%
Stade Brestois 29 by 3+
fair 6.52
17.8%
Stade Brestois 29 by 2
fair 5.62
24.0%
Stade Brestois 29 by 1
fair 4.16
24.0%
Draw
fair 4.16
12.3%
Metz by 1
fair 8.16
4.8%
Metz by 2
fair 20.69
1.7%
Metz by 3+
fair 58.92
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
14%5+
Stade Brestois 29 goals
16%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
11%4+
Metz goals
39%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 57.2% | 58.0% | -0.8 pp |
| Draw | 24.0% | 23.5% | +0.6 pp |
| Metz win | 18.8% | 18.5% | +0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 51.9% | 53.8% | -1.9 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.6% | 52.9% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Stade Brestois 29 | 1.81 | 1.87 | -0.06 |
| Expected goals Metz | 0.94 | 0.96 | -0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Stade Brestois 29 win57.2%1.75
- Draw24.0%4.16
- Metz win18.8%5.32
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw81.2%1.23
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or Metz76.0%1.32
- Double chance Metz or draw42.8%2.34
- Draw no bet Stade Brestois 2975.3%1.33
- Draw no bet Metz24.7%4.04
Goals
- Over 0.593.0%1.07
- Over 1.576.6%1.30
- Over 2.551.9%1.93
- Over 3.529.7%3.36
- Over 4.514.5%6.90
- Under 1.523.4%4.28
- Under 2.548.1%2.08
- Under 3.570.3%1.42
Both teams to score
- Yes51.6%1.94
- No48.4%2.07
- Yes and over 2.540.2%2.49
- Stade Brestois 29 win and yes25.2%3.97
- Draw and yes17.1%5.85
- Metz win and yes9.4%10.68
Team goals
- Stade Brestois 29 over 0.583.6%1.20
- Stade Brestois 29 over 1.554.0%1.85
- Stade Brestois 29 over 2.527.2%3.68
- Metz over 0.561.1%1.64
- Metz over 1.524.3%4.11
- Metz over 2.57.0%14.26
- Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet38.9%2.57
- Metz clean sheet16.4%6.11
- Stade Brestois 29 win to nil32.0%3.13
- Metz win to nil9.4%10.61
Handicap
- Stade Brestois 29 −1.533.1%3.02
- Stade Brestois 29 −2.515.3%6.52
- Metz +1.566.9%1.50
- Metz +2.584.7%1.18
- Metz −1.56.5%15.31
- Stade Brestois 29 +1.593.5%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored113
Favourite won54.9%
Avg chance given to result42.7%
1X2 Brier0.568
Over 2.5 called right56.6%
BTTS called right51.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 19 | 38.2% | 52.6% |
| 40–50% | 36 | 44.5% | 41.7% |
| 50–60% | 25 | 53.9% | 48.0% |
| 60–70% | 17 | 64.9% | 76.5% |
| 70–80% | 11 | 74.6% | 72.7% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 85.6% | 80.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 86 of 113 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6083 | 0.5932 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 41.0% |
| Favourite won | 47.7% | 47.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 86 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 113 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.