Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Stade Brestois 29 were slight favourites.
Stade Brestois 29 were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 25). Stade Brestois 29 had 6.1 days of rest, Nantes 7 and had to travel 255 km.
Away travel255 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Stade Brestois 2954%
Draw25%
Nantes21%
Stade Brestois 2955%
Draw25%
Nantes21%
Stade Brestois 2954%
Draw25%
Nantes21%
Stade Brestois 2946%
Draw27%
Nantes27%
Stade Brestois 2954%
Draw25%
Nantes21%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceGael Angoula
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 23
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29
Nantes
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
47
AttackIn forecast
24
36
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Nantes
1.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
1.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.68
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.46
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
83%
Scored inContext
50%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
14.00
ShotsContext
9.83
4.17
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
30%
On target shareContext
22%
9.17
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
69%
Box shareContext
52%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.25
13.33
Shots allowedContext
15.33
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
5.00
BlocksContext
5.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.83
62%
Save rateContext
77%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
366
PassesContext
382
282
Accurate passesContext
310
77%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.79
12.17
FoulsContext
10.67
10.83
Fouls sufferedContext
12.83
1.33
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.17
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.63
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.00
ShotsContext
9.80
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.78
30%
On target shareContext
26%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.80
72%
Box shareContext
55%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.17
12.70
Shots allowedContext
12.90
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.22
3.78
BlocksContext
4.33
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
56%
Save rateContext
74%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
411
PassesContext
412
332
Accurate passesContext
343
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.90
12.00
FoulsContext
11.80
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km621 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Nantes
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel255 km930 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Nantes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Sep | 7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 27 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 255 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 621 km | 930 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 15.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
1R. Majecki(G)
2B. Locko
4M. Diaz
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
99P. Mboup
23K. Doumbia
7É. Dina Ebimbe
19L. Ajorque
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
66L. Leroux
80J. Mwanga
6C. Awaziem
98K. Amian
5H. Kwon
10M. Abline
17D. Assoumani
7H. Hong
15M. Lahdo
31M. Abdalla
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nantes
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29-0.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nantes+0.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 2.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
Nantes · Away
0.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | W 4–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Stade Brestois 29 wins2 draws2 Nantes wins
Goals per game1.63 – 1.13
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 13%
- 7 Feb 2025Nantes0–2Stade Brestois 29
- 15 Dec 2024Stade Brestois 294–1Nantes
- 4 May 2024Stade Brestois 290–0Nantes
- 17 Dec 2023Nantes0–2Stade Brestois 29
- 3 May 2023Stade Brestois 292–0Nantes
- 16 Oct 2022Nantes4–1Stade Brestois 29
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Nantes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.83 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.83 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 3.67 | 2.00 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 33% | |
| Over 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 17% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.83 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 5.83 | |
| Match total | 9.83 | 9.66 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 3/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 3/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 3.50 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 17% 1/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Nantes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 5.40 | |
| Match total | 9.30 | 9.30 | 9.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.00 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Gael Angoula France · 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.68
Red cards0.22league 0.34
Cards 5+17%league 39%
Fouls21.0league 24.6
Penalties0.35league 0.50
Home wins52%league 59%
Stade Brestois 294 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W15 Dec 24H · Nantes4–13
- W31 Aug 24H · Saint Etienne4–00
- W17 Sep 23A · Reims2–14
- W4 Dec 21A · Marseille2–12
Nantes5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L15 Dec 24A · Stade Brestois 291–43
- D20 Oct 24H · Nice1–12
- W25 Aug 24H · Auxerre2–02
- W11 Feb 24A · Toulouse2–11
- L5 Nov 23H · Reims0–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 296 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Nantes6 games · scored 5 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 15 · conceded 21
3
3
0-15
3
5
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 9 · conceded 9
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
