Stade Brestois 29
Attack—
Defense risk—
Stade Brestois 29
11th · 36 pts · 27 played
WWWLL
3–4Full time
Rennes
7th · 44 pts · 27 played
WWWLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Rennes. Stade Brestois 29 had 14 days of rest, Rennes 13 and had to travel 210 km.
Away travel210 kmRest days14 · 13Matches / 14d1 · 1
Stade Brestois 2935%
Draw28%
Rennes37%
Stade Brestois 2939%
Draw27%
Rennes34%
Stade Brestois 2934%
Draw28%
Rennes37%
Stade Brestois 2928%
Draw27%
Rennes44%
Stade Brestois 2936%
Draw28%
Rennes36%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brest)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 64
Team strength
Stade Brestois 29Rennes
39
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
34
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
47
AttackIn forecast
63
36
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Stade Brestois 29Rennes
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.59
1.44
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.37
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.39
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.20
67%
Scored inContext
78%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.04
ShotsContext
13.07
3.52
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.59
32%
On target shareContext
35%
6.85
Shots in the boxContext
8.08
63%
Box shareContext
61%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.38
12.74
Shots allowedContext
12.52
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.67
3.77
BlocksContext
3.92
3.08
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.72
67%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
364
PassesContext
473
286
Accurate passesContext
403
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.96
FoulsContext
12.15
11.56
Fouls sufferedContext
11.48
1.81
Yellow cardsContext
1.63
0.15
Red cardsContext
0.11
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.08
70%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.50
ShotsContext
14.40
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.80
28%
On target shareContext
33%
5.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
59%
Box shareContext
59%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.80
14.70
Shots allowedContext
10.10
4.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
4.80
BlocksContext
2.90
3.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.33
73%
Save rateContext
72%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
340
PassesContext
498
260
Accurate passesContext
422
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.30
FoulsContext
13.90
12.90
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Stade Brestois 29
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,203 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel210 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Stade Brestois 29 |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 13Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 210 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,203 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Stade Brestois 29
Confirmed XI
30G. Coudert(G)
2B. Locko
4M. Diaz
5B. Chardonnet
77K. Lala
8H. Magnetti
13J. Chotard
14R. Labeau-Lascary
7É. Dina Ebimbe
10R. Del Castillo
19L. Ajorque
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
48A. Aït Boudlal
36A. Seidu
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
45M. Camara
21V. Rongier
10L. Blas
7B. Embolo
9E. Lepaul
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Stade Brestois 29
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Stade Brestois 29+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Rennes-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Stade Brestois 29 · Home
1.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-3
- Scored
- 1.54
- Conceded
- 1.00
Rennes · Away
1.46points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-4-4
- Scored
- 1.46
- Conceded
- 1.77
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Stade Brestois 29 | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | L 0–3 AW 2–0 H | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Monaco | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H |
| LE Havre | W 2–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Metz | W 1–0 AW 3–2 H | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Marseille | W 2–0 HL 0–3 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lille | D 1–1 AD 3–3 H | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Lorient | W 2–0 HD 3–3 A | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Nice | D 2–2 AW 4–1 H | W 4–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–2 HL 0–2 A | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Lyon | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H | W 3–1 H |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–3 H | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A |
| Nantes | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Angers | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Paris FC | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Lens | L 1–3 A | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Points | 36 of 78 · 1.38 per game | 41 of 78 · 1.58 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
2 Stade Brestois 29 wins3 draws4 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.89
Over 2.556%
Both scored78%
Clean sheets11% · 22%
- 13 Dec 2025Rennes3–1Stade Brestois 29
- 18 Jan 2025Rennes1–2Stade Brestois 29
- 19 Oct 2024Stade Brestois 291–1Rennes
- 28 Apr 2024Rennes4–5Stade Brestois 29
- 2 Sep 2023Stade Brestois 290–0Rennes
- 3 Jun 2023Stade Brestois 291–2Rennes
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Stade Brestois 29 | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 1.59 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.44 | 1.37 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.96 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 81% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 48% | 63% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 41% | 52% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 22% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.70 | 2.54 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Stade Brestois 29 | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.36 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 4.41 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 9.74 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 13/25 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 12/25 | 48% 13/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 12/25 | 37% 10/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.96 | 1.78 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.74 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.08 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 52% 14/27 | 63% 17/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 10/27 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Stade Brestois 29 | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.78 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.56 | 9.40 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 3.98 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.42league 3.68
Red cards0.28league 0.28
Cards 5+30%league 36%
Fouls26.2league 23.8
Penalties0.33league 0.36
Home wins38%league 48%
Stade Brestois 296 with this referee
Record2-1-3
Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.7
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- D19 Oct 25A · Lorient3–32
- W3 Dec 23H · Clermont Foot3–01
- L11 Mar 23H · Paris Saint Germain1–21
- W29 Jan 23H · Angers4–00
- L16 Oct 22A · Nantes1–42
Rennes7 with this referee
Record3-1-3
Cards · opp.1.6 · 1.4
Pens for · against3 · 0
Reds1
- L6 Dec 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–53
- L26 Oct 25H · Nice1–25
- D31 Aug 25A · Angers1–12
- L26 Apr 25A · Lyon1–40
- W21 Feb 25H · Reims1–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Stade Brestois 2927 games · scored 34 · conceded 39
6
5
0-15
5
9
16-30
6
6
31-45
6
4
46-60
4
7
61-75
7
8
76-90
Rennes27 games · scored 43 · conceded 37
4
5
0-15
12
1
16-30
4
7
31-45
9
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
10
10
76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
2
1
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 14 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
