Stade Brestois 29 vs Toulouse – 29 Aug 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sat, Aug 29 · 19:45 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest

Stade Brestois 29 9th · 1 pts · 1 played D

2–2Full time

Toulouse 17th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Toulouse. Stade Brestois 29 had 7 days of rest, Toulouse 7 and had to travel 702 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel702 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Stade Brestois 2940%

Draw26%

Toulouse34%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.27

Stade Brestois 2942%

Draw26%

Toulouse32%

Expected goals 1.45 – 1.23

Stade Brestois 2941%

Draw26%

Toulouse33%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.24

Stade Brestois 2933%

Draw26%

Toulouse41%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.43

Stade Brestois 2941%

Draw25%

Toulouse34%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.32

Over 2.5 50% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Brest)

19°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 79%

Referee · FranceJérôme Brisard

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.33
Matches 107

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29

Toulouse

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

47 AttackIn forecast 45

36 DefenceIn forecast 49

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29

Toulouse

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.10 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.90

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.03

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.28

-0.04 Goals minus xGContext +0.37

60% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.30 ShotsContext 11.40

3.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.30

27% On target shareContext 29%

8.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.30

70% Box shareContext 53%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.38 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.10 Shots allowedContext 14.40

5.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.50

4.20 BlocksContext 4.63

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.50

55% Save rateContext 64%

47% PossessionIn forecast 41%

390 PassesContext 348

316 Accurate passesContext 290

81% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.69 Team ratingContext 6.72

10.80 FoulsContext 13.10

10.20 Fouls sufferedContext 8.80

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29 D

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km700 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 45 · 1 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.2 vs expected

D22 AugA · Le Mans2–21.2 xPts

Toulouse L

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel702 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 37 · 0 pts vs 1.5 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L22 AugH · Lyon0–21.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Aug	7Ligue 1 2026-2027, 22 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	702 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	700 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	5

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1E. Selvik(G)

2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 71Raphael Marc Le Guen 70K. Lala

6M. Diambou 13J. Chotard

9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo

19L. Ajorque

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Toulouse Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

16G. Restes(G)

12C. Tapé 2R. Nicolaisen 3M. McKenzie 94I. Diallo

23C. Cásseres 6A. Vossah

10G. Gboho 8T. Jørgensen 7Julián Vignolo

13J. Russell-Rowe

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Stade Brestois 29 Absences are shown before kick-off

Toulouse Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Stade Brestois 29-0.7 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Toulouse+0.9 pp

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home No home games yet this season.

Toulouse · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

4 Stade Brestois 29 wins2 draws2 Toulouse wins

Goals per game1.75 – 1.13 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 25%

25 Jan 2026Stade Brestois 290–2Toulouse
24 Aug 2025Toulouse2–0Stade Brestois 29
30 Mar 2025Toulouse2–4Stade Brestois 29
22 Sep 2024Stade Brestois 292–0Toulouse
19 May 2024Toulouse0–3Stade Brestois 29
8 Oct 2023Stade Brestois 291–1Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	0.00
Conceded per game	2.00	2.00
Match goals	4.00	2.00	2.69
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	50%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse	Forecast
Scored per game	1.10	1.40
Conceded per game	2.30	1.90
Match goals	3.40	3.30	2.69
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	70%	50%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	20%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	10.00	6.00
Corners conceded	1.00	5.00
Match total	11.00	11.00	10.11
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 10.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	2.00
Match total	2.00	3.00	3.22
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Stade Brestois 29	Toulouse	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.30
Corners conceded	5.25	5.40
Match total	10.25	8.70	10.11
Over 8.5	100% 8/8	40% 4/10
Over 9.5	63% 5/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	1.50	2.40
Opponent cards	1.80	1.10
Match total	3.30	3.50	3.22
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jérôme Brisard France · 107 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.49league 3.09

Red cards0.27league 0.18

Cards 5+35%league 9%

Fouls23.8league 22.5

Penalties0.33league 0.45

Home wins41%league 27%

Stade Brestois 2911 with this referee

Record5-2-4 Cards · opp.1.6 · 2.6 Pens for · against4 · 2 Reds2

L10 May 26A · Paris Saint Germain0–10
D16 Mar 25H · Reims0–02
W26 Oct 24A · Reims2–12
D10 May 24H · Reims1–12
W31 Mar 24A · Lorient1–04

Toulouse5 with this referee

Record0-2-3 Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1

L15 Feb 26A · LE Havre1–24
L12 Apr 25H · Lille1–21
D9 Feb 25A · Auxerre2–21
L20 Dec 23H · Monaco1–22
D14 May 23H · Nantes0–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.