Stade Brestois 29
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Stade Brestois 2939.7%fair odds 2.52
Draw27.1%fair odds 3.69
Toulouse33.2%fair odds 3.02
Expected goals1.41 – 1.27total 2.69
Likeliest score1–112.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Toulouse
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Stade Brestois 29 ↓ · Toulouse → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Stade Brestois 29 goals, columns Toulouse goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%7.75
- 1–09.0%11.12
- 2–18.7%11.54
- 0–18.0%12.47
- 1–27.8%12.83
- 0–07.5%13.39
- 2–06.8%14.67
- 0–25.5%18.14
- 2–25.5%18.15
- 3–14.1%24.48
Winning margin
7.1%
Stade Brestois 29 by 3+
fair 14.08
11.9%
Stade Brestois 29 by 2
fair 8.38
20.7%
Stade Brestois 29 by 1
fair 4.84
27.1%
Draw
fair 3.69
18.5%
Toulouse by 1
fair 5.40
9.7%
Toulouse by 2
fair 10.36
5.0%
Toulouse by 3+
fair 20.14
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
17%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
13%5+
Stade Brestois 29 goals
24%0
34%1
24%2
11%3
6%4+
Toulouse goals
28%0
36%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 win | 39.7% | 39.9% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 27.1% | 26.6% | +0.5 pp |
| Toulouse win | 33.2% | 33.5% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 50.3% | 52.6% | -2.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 55.1% | 56.9% | -1.8 pp |
| Expected goals Stade Brestois 29 | 1.41 | 1.46 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Toulouse | 1.27 | 1.32 | -0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Stade Brestois 29 win39.7%2.52
- Draw27.1%3.69
- Toulouse win33.2%3.02
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw66.8%1.50
- Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or Toulouse72.9%1.37
- Double chance Toulouse or draw60.3%1.66
- Draw no bet Stade Brestois 2954.5%1.83
- Draw no bet Toulouse45.5%2.20
Goals
- Over 0.592.5%1.08
- Over 1.575.5%1.32
- Over 2.550.3%1.99
- Over 3.528.3%3.54
- Over 4.513.5%7.41
- Under 1.524.5%4.09
- Under 2.549.7%2.01
- Under 3.571.7%1.39
Both teams to score
- Yes55.1%1.81
- No44.9%2.23
- Yes and over 2.542.2%2.37
- Stade Brestois 29 win and yes19.2%5.22
- Draw and yes19.7%5.09
- Toulouse win and yes16.3%6.13
Team goals
- Stade Brestois 29 over 0.575.7%1.32
- Stade Brestois 29 over 1.541.3%2.42
- Stade Brestois 29 over 2.517.0%5.89
- Toulouse over 0.572.0%1.39
- Toulouse over 1.536.3%2.75
- Toulouse over 2.513.6%7.33
- Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet28.0%3.57
- Toulouse clean sheet24.3%4.11
- Stade Brestois 29 win to nil20.6%4.86
- Toulouse win to nil16.9%5.93
Handicap
- Stade Brestois 29 −1.519.0%5.25
- Stade Brestois 29 −2.57.1%14.08
- Toulouse +1.581.0%1.24
- Toulouse +2.592.9%1.08
- Toulouse −1.514.6%6.84
- Stade Brestois 29 +1.585.4%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored11
Favourite won45.5%
Avg chance given to result37.1%
1X2 Brier0.642
Over 2.5 called right72.7%
BTTS called right45.5%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 38.5% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 46.2% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 3 | 55.8% | 33.3% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 65.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 2 of 11 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.8622 | 0.8861 |
| Avg chance given to result | 26.0% | 24.9% |
| Favourite won | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 2 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 11 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.