Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Antwerp were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 27). Standard Liege had 15.1 days of rest, Antwerp 15.8 and had to travel 101 km.
Away travel101 kmRest days15.1 · 15.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Standard Liege36%
Draw28%
Antwerp37%
Standard Liege36%
Draw27%
Antwerp37%
Standard Liege36%
Draw28%
Antwerp37%
Standard Liege29%
Draw27%
Antwerp44%
Standard Liege36%
Draw27%
Antwerp37%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.23
- Matches 30
Team strength
Standard Liege
Antwerp
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
26
29
AttackIn forecast
24
29
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAntwerp
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeAntwerp
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.80
ShotsContext
10.70
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
39%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
60%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.44
OffsidesContext
3.11
14.80
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.40
BlocksContext
4.30
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
76%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
363
PassesContext
366
284
Accurate passesContext
294
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.20
FoulsContext
11.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.03
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
60%
Scored inContext
70%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
9.80
ShotsContext
10.70
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
34%
On target shareContext
39%
5.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.11
60%
Box shareContext
56%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.44
OffsidesContext
3.11
14.80
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.40
BlocksContext
4.30
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
76%
Save rateContext
69%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
363
PassesContext
366
284
Accurate passesContext
294
78%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.20
FoulsContext
11.80
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
13.10
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Antwerp
Rest15.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel101 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Antwerp |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 5 Oct | 15.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 4 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 101 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.2 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr
24J. Homawoo
25I. Hautekiet
13M. Fossey
6H. Sahabo
23M. Ilaimaharitra
17R. Saïd
10D. Eckert Ayensa
11A. Abid
9T. Henry
Antwerp
Confirmed XI
41Taishi Brandon Nozawa(G)
21A. Verstraeten
4Yuto Tsunashima
33Z. Van Den Bosch
5D. Foulon
34M. Diawara
16M. Benítez
30C. Scott
24T. Somers
22F. Adekami
18V. Janssen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Antwerp
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Antwerp+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.00points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.60
Antwerp · Away
0.60points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-3-2
- Scored
- 0.40
- Conceded
- 1.20
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | Antwerp |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| OH Leuven | L 0–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 0–3 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genk | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 7 of 21 · 1.00 per game | 10 of 21 · 1.43 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Standard Liege wins0 draws2 Antwerp wins
Goals per game0.00 – 3.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets0% · 100%
- 31 Jan 2024Standard Liege0–1Antwerp
- 11 Nov 2023Antwerp6–0Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Standard Liege | Antwerp | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.20 | 2.61 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.80 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.60 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Standard Liege | Antwerp | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 4.90 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 8.80 | 9.53 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.60 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.63league 3.86
Red cards0.33league 0.22
Cards 5+33%league 43%
Fouls24.4league 23.1
Penalties0.23league 0.30
Home wins40%league 41%
Standard Liege2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D16 Dec 23H · Charleroi0–01
- W30 Sep 23A · OH Leuven2–11
Antwerp2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 3.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 Nov 23H · Genk3–23
- W15 Sep 23A · KVC Westerlo3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 9 · conceded 13
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
3
76-90
Antwerp10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
