Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Standard Liege were slight favourites.
Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cercle Brugge. Standard Liege had 138.9 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 138.9 and had to travel 176 km.
Away travel176 kmRest days138.9 · 138.9Matches / 14d0 · 0
Standard Liege49%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge27%
Standard Liege50%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge25%
Standard Liege49%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge27%
Standard Liege42%
Draw25%
Cercle Brugge33%
Standard Liege50%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge26%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeJasper Vergoote
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 58
Team strength
Standard Liege
Cercle Brugge
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
29
AttackIn forecast
24
29
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeCercle Brugge
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
—
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Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
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1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.38
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.34
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.14
80%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
10.40
ShotsContext
15.70
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
41%
On target shareContext
41%
7.40
Shots in the boxContext
11.60
68%
Box shareContext
73%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
3.33
16.30
Shots allowedContext
11.70
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.90
BlocksContext
3.60
3.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
77%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
362
PassesContext
360
280
Accurate passesContext
276
77%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.94
8.10
FoulsContext
10.30
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest138.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest138.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel176 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 138.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Mar | 138.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 176 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen
25I. Hautekiet
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
22A. Trouillet
23M. Ilaimaharitra
11A. Abid
94C. Nielsen
17Bernard Nguene
10D. Eckert Ayensa
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1G. Coucke(G)
24Geoffrey Kondo
66C. Ravych
5Emmanuel Kakou
12Valy Konaté
19Makaya Ibrahima Diaby
42L. Mondele
15G. Magnée
71V. Martens
9S. Ngoura
13D. Vanzeir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
No home games yet this season.
Cercle Brugge · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Standard Liege wins1 draws2 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 6 Dec 2025Cercle Brugge1–2Standard Liege
- 23 Aug 2025Standard Liege0–3Cercle Brugge
- 26 Jan 2024Cercle Brugge1–1Standard Liege
- 19 Aug 2023Standard Liege0–1Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | 56% |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Standard Liege | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 3.10 | 2.82 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Standard Liege | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.90 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 11.40 | 7.00 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jasper Vergoote 58 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.48league 2.00
Red cards0.28league 0.00
Cards 5+26%league 0%
Fouls22.5league 16.0
Penalties0.40league 1.00
Home wins52%league 100%
Standard Liege8 with this referee
Record1-0-7
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds2
- W3 May 26A · Antwerp5–00
- L18 Jan 26A · Charleroi0–21
- L26 Dec 25H · St. Truiden1–22
- L27 Sep 25H · Club Brugge KV1–25
- L16 Feb 24A · KVC Westerlo1–21
Cercle Brugge5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.8
Pens for · against3 · 0
- L14 Sep 25H · Charleroi2–31
- W17 Mar 24H · RWDM4–01
- D20 Jan 24A · Genk1–12
- W16 Dec 23A · OH Leuven2–13
- W19 Aug 23A · Standard Liege1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard LiegeCercle BruggeStandard Liege10 games · scored 17 · conceded 11
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
6
2
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 19 · conceded 18
3
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
3
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
