Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Standard Liege48.6%fair odds 2.06
Draw25.5%fair odds 3.93
Cercle Brugge26.0%fair odds 3.85
Expected goals1.67 – 1.16total 2.82
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Cercle Brugge
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Standard Liege ↓ · Cercle Brugge → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Standard Liege goals, columns Cercle Brugge goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.29
- 2–19.5%10.49
- 1–09.3%10.78
- 2–08.2%12.16
- 1–26.6%15.06
- 0–06.5%15.29
- 0–16.3%15.94
- 2–25.5%18.09
- 3–15.3%18.89
- 3–04.6%21.91
Winning margin
11.2%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 8.95
15.0%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 6.68
22.4%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 4.46
25.5%
Draw
fair 3.93
15.4%
Cercle Brugge by 1
fair 6.48
7.3%
Cercle Brugge by 2
fair 13.77
3.3%
Cercle Brugge by 3+
fair 30.59
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Standard Liege goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
15%3
9%4+
Cercle Brugge goals
31%0
36%1
21%2
8%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege win | 48.6% | 49.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Cercle Brugge win | 26.0% | 25.8% | +0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 55.4% | -1.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 56.3% | 57.5% | -1.3 pp |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.67 | 1.71 | -0.05 |
| Expected goals Cercle Brugge | 1.16 | 1.19 | -0.03 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Standard Liege win48.6%2.06
- Draw25.5%3.93
- Cercle Brugge win26.0%3.85
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw74.0%1.35
- Double chance Standard Liege or Cercle Brugge74.5%1.34
- Double chance Cercle Brugge or draw51.4%1.94
- Draw no bet Standard Liege65.2%1.53
- Draw no bet Cercle Brugge34.8%2.87
Goals
- Over 0.593.5%1.07
- Over 1.577.9%1.28
- Over 2.553.6%1.86
- Over 3.531.4%3.19
- Over 4.515.6%6.40
- Under 1.522.1%4.53
- Under 2.546.4%2.16
- Under 3.568.6%1.46
Both teams to score
- Yes56.3%1.78
- No43.7%2.29
- Yes and over 2.544.2%2.26
- Standard Liege win and yes23.7%4.21
- Draw and yes18.9%5.28
- Cercle Brugge win and yes13.6%7.36
Team goals
- Standard Liege over 0.581.1%1.23
- Standard Liege over 1.549.6%2.02
- Standard Liege over 2.523.4%4.28
- Cercle Brugge over 0.568.6%1.46
- Cercle Brugge over 1.532.3%3.10
- Cercle Brugge over 2.511.2%8.94
- Standard Liege clean sheet31.4%3.19
- Cercle Brugge clean sheet18.9%5.29
- Standard Liege win to nil24.8%4.03
- Cercle Brugge win to nil12.4%8.08
Handicap
- Standard Liege −1.526.1%3.83
- Standard Liege −2.511.2%8.95
- Cercle Brugge +1.573.9%1.35
- Cercle Brugge +2.588.8%1.13
- Cercle Brugge −1.510.5%9.50
- Standard Liege +1.589.5%1.12
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored1
Favourite won100.0%
Avg chance given to result86.2%
1X2 Brier0.030
Over 2.5 called right100.0%
BTTS called right100.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80%+ | 1 | 86.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 1 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
Latest results
- ✓Club Brugge KV 3–0 Kortrijk86·9·5
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 1 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.