Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Charleroi. Standard Liege had 22.7 days of rest, Charleroi 21.8 and had to travel 83 km.
Away travel83 kmRest days22.7 · 21.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Standard Liege39%
Draw24%
Charleroi37%
Standard Liege43%
Draw26%
Charleroi31%
Standard Liege39%
Draw24%
Charleroi37%
Standard Liege31%
Draw23%
Charleroi45%
Standard Liege39%
Draw24%
Charleroi37%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 62%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 36
Team strength
Standard Liege
Charleroi
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
29
AttackIn forecast
43
29
DefenceIn forecast
50
52
Form indexContext
76
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeCharleroi
1.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.14
1.71
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.80
xGVia Att/Def
1.95
1.76
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.62
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
100%
Scored inContext
100%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
43%
14.00
ShotsContext
17.71
5.43
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.86
39%
On target shareContext
33%
10.57
Shots in the boxContext
12.29
73%
Box shareContext
69%
13%
ConversionContext
12%
2.67
OffsidesContext
1.83
15.14
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
4.83
BlocksContext
4.83
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
62%
Save rateContext
78%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
476
PassesContext
501
377
Accurate passesContext
426
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.76
Team ratingContext
7.08
9.14
FoulsContext
10.57
11.43
Fouls sufferedContext
13.14
1.14
Yellow cardsContext
1.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.49
xGVia Att/Def
1.71
1.66
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.69
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.70
ShotsContext
16.80
5.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
40%
On target shareContext
33%
9.70
Shots in the boxContext
11.80
74%
Box shareContext
70%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.11
16.30
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.13
5.33
BlocksContext
4.38
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
64%
Save rateContext
82%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
445
PassesContext
482
351
Accurate passesContext
409
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.03
9.00
FoulsContext
10.30
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.10
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
WWWLL
Rest22.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 52 · 9 pts vs 8.8 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
Charleroi
WWLWW
Rest21.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel83 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 76 · 12 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 22.7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 18 Sep | 21.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 83 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14 | 13.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
3Gustav Mortensen
25I. Hautekiet
20I. Karamoko
13M. Fossey
84R. Touzghar
22A. Trouillet
94C. Nielsen
11A. Abid
10D. Eckert Ayensa
17Bernard Nguene
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi
6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
2.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.67
Charleroi · Away
3.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-0-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven | W 2–1 A | W 3–1 H |
| KV Mechelen | D 3–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Cercle Brugge | D 2–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 9 of 9 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Standard Liege wins2 draws2 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.17
Over 2.533%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets17% · 50%
- 23 May 2026Standard Liege0–2Charleroi
- 18 Apr 2026Charleroi1–2Standard Liege
- 18 Jan 2026Charleroi2–0Standard Liege
- 31 Oct 2025Standard Liege3–1Charleroi
- 16 Dec 2023Standard Liege0–0Charleroi
- 13 Aug 2023Charleroi1–1Standard Liege
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.86 | 2.14 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.71 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.57 | 3.14 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 57% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 43% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Standard Liege | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 62% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.14 | 5.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.71 | 4.29 | |
| Match total | 10.85 | 9.58 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.14 | 1.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Match total | 2.43 | 2.43 | 3.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/7 | 0% 0/7 | |
| Standard Liege | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.50 | 6.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 11.30 | 10.03 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.20 | 2.90 | 3.27 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 3.09
Red cards0.08league 0.16
Cards 5+22%league 26%
Fouls22.5league 21.9
Penalties0.33league 0.25
Home wins44%league 49%
Standard Liege3 with this referee
Record1-2-0
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D27 Feb 26H · RAAL La Louvière1–11
- W28 Nov 25A · KV Mechelen1–01
- D2 Aug 25H · Dender1–12
Charleroi7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.1.7 · 0.9
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D19 Dec 25H · Genk2–22
- L22 Nov 25A · Club Brugge KV0–10
- L18 Oct 25A · Union St. Gilloise1–33
- W17 Sep 25A · Genk1–02
- D17 Aug 25H · Antwerp1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege7 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
6
1
61-75
1
6
76-90
Charleroi7 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
4
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 15 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
6
2
61-75
1
7
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
