Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, Sep 27 · 17:15 Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Luik
Standard Liege 9th · 11 pts · 8 played
1–2Full time
Club Brugge KV 3rd · 14 pts · 8 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.

Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 28). Club Brugge KV usually keep the ball (59% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Standard Liege had 6.1 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 2.9 and had to travel 176 km.

Away travel176 kmRest days6.1 · 2.9Matches / 14d1 · 3
Standard Liege21%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV54%
Expected goals 1.04 – 1.77
Standard Liege22%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV53%
Expected goals 1.04 – 1.72
Standard Liege21%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV54%
Expected goals 1.04 – 1.77
Standard Liege16%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV61%
Expected goals 0.92 – 1.98
Standard Liege22%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV53%
Expected goals 1.04 – 1.72
Over 2.5 53% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)

No weather data yet

RefereeJasper Vergoote
  • Cards per match 4.3
  • Penalties per match 0.50
  • Matches 34

Team strength

Standard LiegeClub Brugge KV
28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 66
33 Current StrengthIn forecast 75
29 AttackIn forecast 86
29 DefenceIn forecast 58
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Standard Liege

Attack—
Defense risk—

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Standard LiegeClub Brugge KV
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.75
1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.25
1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.76
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.95
-0.06 Goals minus xGContext -0.01
63% Scored inContext 88%
25% Clean sheetsContext 38%
8.88 ShotsContext 17.50
3.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50
38% On target shareContext 31%
5.13 Shots in the boxContext 12.75
59% Box shareContext 73%
11% ConversionContext 10%
2.86 OffsidesContext 1.86
14.75 Shots allowedContext 11.38
4.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.13
4.63 BlocksContext 2.25
3.75 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25
77% Save rateContext 79%
46% PossessionIn forecast 63%
372 PassesContext 580
294 Accurate passesContext 508
79% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.85 Team ratingContext 7.06
9.75 FoulsContext 10.00
11.63 Fouls sufferedContext 11.25
2.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.13
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.70
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10
1.06 xGVia Att/Def 1.96
1.25 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.84
+0.14 Goals minus xGContext +0.74
60% Scored inContext 90%
30% Clean sheetsContext 40%
9.10 ShotsContext 19.30
3.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 7.60
41% On target shareContext 39%
5.80 Shots in the boxContext 14.60
64% Box shareContext 75%
13% ConversionContext 14%
2.63 OffsidesContext 1.86
14.60 Shots allowedContext 10.60
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 2.70
4.50 BlocksContext 3.00
3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
77% Save rateContext 81%
47% PossessionIn forecast 61%
399 PassesContext 552
319 Accurate passesContext 484
80% Pass accuracyContext 88%
6.91 Team ratingContext 7.23
9.10 FoulsContext 9.40
11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.10
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Standard Liege
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Club Brugge KV
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel176 km210 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Standard Liege Club Brugge KV
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Moderate · 23
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Sep2.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km176 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways137 km210 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 32 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one7.88

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Standard Liege Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr 20I. Karamoko 29D. Dierckx 13M. Fossey
94C. Nielsen 23M. Ilaimaharitra
17R. Saïd 10D. Eckert Ayensa 11A. Abid
9T. Henry
Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
29N. Jackers(G)
65J. Seys 44B. Mechele 4J. Ordoñez 14B. Meijer
20H. Vanaken 25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis 11C. Sandra 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Standard Liege Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Standard Liege+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Standard Liege · Home 1.25points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-2-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50
Club Brugge KV · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
0.75
Conceded
1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 5 this season

OpponentStandard LiegeClub Brugge KV
KVC Westerlo W 2–0 A D 5–5 H
KV Mechelen D 1–1 H L 1–2 A
Cercle Brugge L 0–3 H W 2–0 H
Genk W 2–1 H W 2–1 H
RAAL La Louvière W 2–0 A L 0–1 A
Points10 of 15 · 2.00 per game7 of 15 · 1.40 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

1 Standard Liege wins0 draws1 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%
  • 3 Dec 2023Club Brugge KV2–0Standard Liege
  • 8 Oct 2023Standard Liege2–1Club Brugge KV

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Standard LiegeClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 1.001.75
Conceded per game 1.251.25
Match goals 2.253.00 2.80
Over 1.5 88%75%
Over 2.5 38%38% 53%
Over 3.5 0%13%
Both teams scored 38%50% 54%
Clean sheets 25%38%
Failed to score 38%13%
Games88
Standard LiegeClub Brugge KVForecast
Scored per game 1.001.75
Conceded per game 1.251.25
Match goals 2.253.00 2.80
Over 1.5 88%75%
Over 2.5 38%38% 53%
Over 3.5 0%13%
Both teams scored 38%50% 54%
Clean sheets 25%38%
Failed to score 38%13%
Games88

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Standard LiegeClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won3.756.43
Corners conceded5.254.29
Match total9.0010.729.54
Over 8.525% 2/871% 5/7
Over 9.525% 2/871% 5/7
Over 10.525% 2/871% 5/7
Cards
Cards2.381.38
Opponent cards2.132.38
Match total4.513.764.05
Over 3.575% 6/863% 5/8
Over 4.550% 4/825% 2/8
Standard LiegeClub Brugge KVLeague
Corners
Corners won4.007.22
Corners conceded5.404.33
Match total9.4011.559.54
Over 8.540% 4/1078% 7/9
Over 9.540% 4/1078% 7/9
Over 10.530% 3/1078% 7/9
Cards
Cards2.101.40
Opponent cards1.702.00
Match total3.803.404.05
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.540% 4/1020% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Jasper Vergoote 34 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.03league 3.82
Red cards0.29league 0.21
Cards 5+38%league 41%
Fouls23.6league 23.0
Penalties0.50league 0.32
Home wins56%league 42%
Standard Liege4 with this referee
Record0-0-4 Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • L16 Feb 24A · KVC Westerlo1–21
  • L3 Dec 23A · Club Brugge KV0–22
  • L19 Aug 23H · Cercle Brugge0–12
  • L30 Jul 23A · St. Truiden0–11
Club Brugge KV7 with this referee
Record3-1-3 Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.9 Pens for · against2 · 0 Reds3
  • W27 Jul 25H · Genk2–12
  • W3 Mar 24A · Genk3–02
  • L4 Feb 24A · Antwerp1–26
  • D26 Dec 23H · Union St. Gilloise1–13
  • W3 Dec 23H · Standard Liege2–02

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Standard Liege8 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
2 46-60
1 4 61-75
2 76-90
Club Brugge KV8 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
4 2 76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 12 · conceded 11
2 1 0-15
1 1 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 1 46-60
1 4 61-75
2 2 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 27 · conceded 11
3 1 0-15
1 2 16-30
9 2 31-45
5 1 46-60
4 2 61-75
5 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Anderlecht 11 Zulte Waregem Antwerp 20 Standard Liege Club Brugge KV 12 Union St. Gilloise KVC Westerlo 20 St. Truiden Genk 12 Cercle Brugge Gent 24 Charleroi KV Mechelen 02