Standard Liege
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Standard Liege
9th · 11 pts · 8 played
LLLDW
1–2Full time
Club Brugge KV
3rd · 14 pts · 8 played
WDLWD
Standard Liege21.5%fair odds 4.66
Draw24.6%fair odds 4.07
Club Brugge KV54.0%fair odds 1.85
Expected goals1.04 – 1.77total 2.80
Likeliest score1–111.7%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Club Brugge KV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Standard Liege ↓ · Club Brugge KV → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Standard Liege goals, columns Club Brugge KV goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%8.56
- 0–110.1%9.87
- 1–29.8%10.20
- 0–29.5%10.56
- 0–06.7%15.03
- 1–35.8%17.31
- 2–15.7%17.41
- 1–05.7%17.58
- 0–35.6%17.91
- 2–25.1%19.70
Winning margin
2.2%
Standard Liege by 3+
fair 44.47
5.7%
Standard Liege by 2
fair 17.41
13.5%
Standard Liege by 1
fair 7.42
24.6%
Draw
fair 4.07
23.4%
Club Brugge KV by 1
fair 4.27
16.7%
Club Brugge KV by 2
fair 5.97
13.8%
Club Brugge KV by 3+
fair 7.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
15%5+
Standard Liege goals
36%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
Club Brugge KV goals
17%0
30%1
27%2
16%3
10%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege win | 21.5% | 22.1% | -0.7 pp |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.0% | -0.4 pp |
| Club Brugge KV win | 54.0% | 52.9% | +1.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 53.1% | 52.1% | +1.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.1% | 53.6% | +0.4 pp |
| Expected goals Standard Liege | 1.04 | 1.04 | -0.00 |
| Expected goals Club Brugge KV | 1.77 | 1.72 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Standard Liege win21.5%4.66
- Draw24.6%4.07
- Club Brugge KV win54.0%1.85
- Double chance Standard Liege or draw46.0%2.17
- Double chance Standard Liege or Club Brugge KV75.4%1.33
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw78.5%1.27
- Draw no bet Standard Liege28.5%3.51
- Draw no bet Club Brugge KV71.5%1.40
Goals
- Over 0.593.3%1.07
- Over 1.577.5%1.29
- Over 2.553.1%1.88
- Over 3.530.9%3.24
- Over 4.515.3%6.55
- Under 1.522.5%4.45
- Under 2.546.9%2.13
- Under 3.569.1%1.45
Both teams to score
- Yes54.1%1.85
- No45.9%2.18
- Yes and over 2.542.4%2.36
- Standard Liege win and yes11.0%9.05
- Draw and yes17.9%5.58
- Club Brugge KV win and yes25.1%3.98
Team goals
- Standard Liege over 0.564.5%1.55
- Standard Liege over 1.527.7%3.61
- Standard Liege over 2.58.7%11.51
- Club Brugge KV over 0.582.9%1.21
- Club Brugge KV over 1.552.7%1.90
- Club Brugge KV over 2.526.1%3.84
- Standard Liege clean sheet17.1%5.86
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet35.5%2.82
- Standard Liege win to nil10.4%9.60
- Club Brugge KV win to nil28.9%3.46
Handicap
- Standard Liege −1.58.0%12.51
- Standard Liege −2.52.2%44.47
- Club Brugge KV +1.592.0%1.09
- Club Brugge KV +2.597.8%1.02
- Club Brugge KV −1.530.5%3.28
- Standard Liege +1.569.5%1.44
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored66
Favourite won43.9%
Avg chance given to result37.2%
1X2 Brier0.633
Over 2.5 called right53.0%
BTTS called right50.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 11 | 38.9% | 18.2% |
| 40–50% | 37 | 45.1% | 37.8% |
| 50–60% | 12 | 55.3% | 75.0% |
| 60–70% | 5 | 65.3% | 80.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 73.5% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 28 of 66 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6689 | 0.6806 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.0% | 36.0% |
| Favourite won | 39.3% | 39.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 28 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗Zulte Waregem 2–0 Antwerp33·28·40
- ✗OH Leuven 1–1 Anderlecht25·26·49
- ✗Club Brugge KV 5–5 KVC Westerlo74·17·9
- ✓Anderlecht 1–0 Gent46·26·28
- ✗KV Mechelen 0–0 Cercle Brugge48·26·26
- ✓Club Brugge KV 2–0 St. Truiden70·19·12
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–2 Standard Liege42·27·31
- ✓Genk 1–2 Union St. Gilloise30·26·44
- ✗Anderlecht 0–0 Antwerp48·26·26
- ✗Charleroi 1–2 Zulte Waregem45·27·28
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 66 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.