Standard Liege
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 26). Standard Liege had 12.2 days of rest, KV Mechelen 13.2 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days12.2 · 13.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Standard Liege38%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen34%
Standard Liege39%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen34%
Standard Liege38%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen34%
Standard Liege31%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen41%
Standard Liege39%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen34%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.46
- Matches 24
Team strength
Standard Liege
KV Mechelen
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
29
AttackIn forecast
18
29
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Standard LiegeKV Mechelen
0.83
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.17
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
50%
Scored inContext
100%
17%
Clean sheetsContext
17%
8.83
ShotsContext
10.67
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
38%
On target shareContext
45%
5.17
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
61%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
14%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.60
14.50
Shots allowedContext
16.67
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.67
4.67
BlocksContext
5.17
3.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
76%
Save rateContext
92%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
377
PassesContext
403
301
Accurate passesContext
336
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.00
FoulsContext
9.17
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.00
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
60%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.90
ShotsContext
11.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
40%
On target shareContext
41%
6.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.11
69%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
16%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.80
Shots allowedContext
15.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.00
BlocksContext
4.50
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
75%
Save rateContext
85%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
412
PassesContext
434
332
Accurate passesContext
353
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.99
9.70
FoulsContext
8.20
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Standard Liege
Rest12.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km133 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest13.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Standard Liege |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 13.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 133 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.8 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Standard Liege
Confirmed XI
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr
24J. Homawoo
29D. Dierckx
13M. Fossey
94C. Nielsen
23M. Ilaimaharitra
17R. Saïd
27Mo El Hankouri
11A. Abid
9T. Henry
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
4Gora Diouf
8M. Konaté
2R. Halhal
23Moncef Zekri
17Mathis Servais
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
11B. Bafdili
19A. Mrabti
20L. Lauberbach
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Standard Liege
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Standard Liege+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Standard Liege · Home
1.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
KV Mechelen · Away
1.33points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Standard Liege | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| RAAL La Louvière | W 2–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Standard Liege wins1 draws1 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game0.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 20 Dec 2023KV Mechelen3–0Standard Liege
- 5 Nov 2023Standard Liege1–1KV Mechelen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Standard Liege | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 83% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Standard Liege | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.83 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.17 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 2.67 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 83% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 17% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 0% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Standard Liege | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.83 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 6.83 | |
| Match total | 7.83 | 12.16 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 17% 1/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.17 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.33 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 4.33 | 3.17 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 4/6 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Standard Liege | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.20 | 5.80 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 10.90 | 9.64 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 2.80 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 24 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.46league 3.69
Red cards0.17league 0.24
Cards 5+46%league 38%
Fouls22.4league 23.1
Penalties0.46league 0.36
Home wins42%league 49%
Standard Liege3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L25 Feb 24A · Union St. Gilloise1–23
- L29 Oct 23A · Gent1–32
- D13 Aug 23A · Charleroi1–13
KV Mechelen4 with this referee
Record0-2-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D16 Aug 25H · Gent1–11
- D10 Dec 23H · Club Brugge KV0–03
- L7 Oct 23A · Anderlecht1–33
- L6 Aug 23H · Gent0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Standard Liege6 games · scored 5 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
76-90
KV Mechelen6 games · scored 9 · conceded 7
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
3
3
76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
