Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Fri, Dec 12 · 19:45 Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Luik
Standard Liege 6th · 24 pts · 17 played
First leg0–1 0–1Full time
OH Leuven 14th · 16 pts · 17 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Standard Liege were slight favourites.

Standard Liege were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 21). Standard Liege had 6.2 days of rest, OH Leuven 5.1 and had to travel 66 km.

Away travel66 kmRest days6.2 · 5.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Standard Liege50%
Draw26%
OH Leuven24%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.03
Standard Liege51%
Draw26%
OH Leuven24%
Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07
Standard Liege50%
Draw26%
OH Leuven24%
Expected goals 1.61 – 1.03
Standard Liege43%
Draw27%
OH Leuven30%
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.15
Standard Liege51%
Draw26%
OH Leuven24%
Expected goals 1.67 – 1.07
Over 2.5 49% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Luik)

No weather data yet

RefereeMassimiliano Ledda
  • Cards per match 3.4
  • Penalties per match 0.40
  • Matches 5

Team strength

Standard LiegeOH Leuven
30 L90 StrengthIn forecast 21
33 Current StrengthIn forecast 18
29 AttackIn forecast 17
29 DefenceIn forecast 30
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Standard Liege

Attack—
Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Standard LiegeOH Leuven
0.94 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.06
1.18 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.59
0.97 xGVia Att/Def 1.00
1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32
-0.03 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
59% Scored inContext 76%
29% Clean sheetsContext 18%
9.94 ShotsContext 12.00
3.41 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.31
34% On target shareContext 34%
6.81 Shots in the boxContext 8.06
66% Box shareContext 67%
10% ConversionContext 9%
2.46 OffsidesContext 1.63
13.94 Shots allowedContext 12.00
4.35 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.65
4.24 BlocksContext 2.81
3.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.31
75% Save rateContext 68%
45% PossessionIn forecast 44%
367 PassesContext 330
288 Accurate passesContext 256
79% Pass accuracyContext 77%
6.82 Team ratingContext 6.72
11.12 FoulsContext 16.18
11.41 Fouls sufferedContext 10.94
2.12 Yellow cardsContext 2.94
0.18 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 17 and 17 games
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.07
1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.32
+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.13
60% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 10%
10.40 ShotsContext 12.10
3.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.60
33% On target shareContext 38%
7.78 Shots in the boxContext 7.50
69% Box shareContext 63%
10% ConversionContext 10%
2.86 OffsidesContext 1.33
13.60 Shots allowedContext 11.80
3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
4.00 BlocksContext 2.70
3.11 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
76% Save rateContext 69%
43% PossessionIn forecast 45%
360 PassesContext 334
279 Accurate passesContext 262
78% Pass accuracyContext 78%
6.80 Team ratingContext 6.77
12.50 FoulsContext 17.00
10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 11.10
2.20 Yellow cardsContext 2.90
0.30 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Standard Liege
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km529 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
OH Leuven
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel66 km115 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Standard Liege OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Dec5.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km66 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways529 km115 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 31 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one7.88.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Standard Liege Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Epolo(G)
7T. Mohr 24J. Homawoo 25I. Hautekiet 18H. Lawrence
8N. Mehssatou 20I. Karamoko
17R. Saïd 10D. Eckert Ayensa 11A. Abid
59T. Nkada
OH Leuven Confirmed XI
3-5-2
1T. Leysen(G)
34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 28E. Pletinckx
14H. Teklab 10Y. Maziz 4B. Verstraete 24Ł. Łakomy 27Óscar Gil
39S. Kaba 19C. Ikwuemesi

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Standard Liege Absences are shown before kick-off
OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Standard Liege+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • OH Leuven+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Standard Liege · Home 1.50points per game · 8 home games
W-D-L
3-3-2
Scored
1.13
Conceded
1.13
OH Leuven · Away 0.88points per game · 8 away games
W-D-L
2-1-5
Scored
0.75
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentStandard LiegeOH Leuven
Cercle Brugge W 2–1 AL 0–3 H W 2–1 A
KV Mechelen W 1–0 AD 1–1 H D 1–1 A
Zulte Waregem D 0–0 H D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
St. Truiden L 0–1 A L 1–2 H
Charleroi W 3–1 H D 2–2 H
Gent L 0–4 A W 4–0 H
Antwerp W 1–0 H L 1–3 A
Anderlecht L 0–1 A D 1–1 H
Club Brugge KV L 1–2 H L 0–1 H
KVC Westerlo W 2–0 A L 0–2 A
Union St. Gilloise L 0–3 A L 0–5 A
Genk W 2–1 H L 1–2 AL 1–2 H
Dender D 1–1 H W 1–0 A
RAAL La Louvière W 2–0 A L 1–2 H
Points24 of 48 · 1.50 per game13 of 48 · 0.81 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

2 Standard Liege wins0 draws1 OH Leuven wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.67 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets33% · 33%
  • 31 Aug 2025OH Leuven1–0Standard Liege
  • 10 Feb 2024Standard Liege1–0OH Leuven
  • 30 Sep 2023OH Leuven1–2Standard Liege

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Standard LiegeOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 0.941.06
Conceded per game 1.181.59
Match goals 2.122.65 2.63
Over 1.5 65%82%
Over 2.5 41%53% 49%
Over 3.5 12%24%
Both teams scored 35%59% 52%
Clean sheets 29%18%
Failed to score 41%24%
Games1717
Standard LiegeOH LeuvenForecast
Scored per game 1.001.20
Conceded per game 1.001.30
Match goals 2.002.50 2.63
Over 1.5 50%90%
Over 2.5 40%50% 49%
Over 3.5 20%10%
Both teams scored 30%70% 52%
Clean sheets 40%10%
Failed to score 40%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Standard LiegeOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.824.38
Corners conceded5.474.94
Match total9.299.329.61
Over 8.547% 8/1756% 9/16
Over 9.535% 6/1750% 8/16
Over 10.524% 4/1744% 7/16
Cards
Cards2.413.00
Opponent cards1.762.24
Match total4.175.244.03
Over 3.565% 11/1776% 13/17
Over 4.553% 9/1759% 10/17
Standard LiegeOH LeuvenLeague
Corners
Corners won3.603.89
Corners conceded5.805.11
Match total9.409.009.61
Over 8.560% 6/1056% 5/9
Over 9.540% 4/1044% 4/9
Over 10.520% 2/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards2.602.90
Opponent cards1.302.10
Match total3.905.004.03
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.550% 5/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Massimiliano Ledda 5 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards2.80league 3.82
Red cards0.60league 0.18
Cards 5+20%league 43%
Fouls22.2league 23.0
Penalties0.40league 0.29
Home wins60%league 43%
Standard Liege

No previous matches with this referee.

OH Leuven

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Standard Liege17 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
3 3 0-15
2 2 16-30
5 4 31-45
5 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
5 76-90
OH Leuven17 games · scored 18 · conceded 27
3 4 0-15
5 16-30
4 5 31-45
1 4 46-60
4 2 61-75
6 7 76-90
Standard Liege10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
2 2 0-15
2 1 16-30
3 2 31-45
3 2 46-60
61-75
3 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2 0-15
4 16-30
3 3 31-45
1 2 46-60
2 1 61-75
4 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Standard Liege OH Leuven 01 Cercle Brugge KV Mechelen 23 Zulte Waregem RAAL La Louvière 22 Anderlecht St. Truiden 21 Gent Antwerp 02 Dender Club Brugge KV 15 Charleroi Union St. Gilloise 11 Genk KVC Westerlo 11