Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were clear favourites.
Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 21). Strasbourg had 14 days of rest, LE Havre 14 and had to travel 566 km.
Away travel566 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1
Strasbourg63%
Draw22%
LE Havre15%
Strasbourg62%
Draw22%
LE Havre16%
Strasbourg63%
Draw22%
LE Havre15%
Strasbourg55%
Draw25%
LE Havre20%
Strasbourg62%
Draw22%
LE Havre16%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceWilly Delajod
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 89
Team strength
Strasbourg
LE Havre
47
L90 StrengthIn forecast
21
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
40
AttackIn forecast
20
37
DefenceIn forecast
22
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLE Havre
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgLE Havre
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
100%
Scored inContext
100%
67%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
12.00
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.00
33%
On target shareContext
50%
7.67
Shots in the boxContext
7.33
63%
Box shareContext
59%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.50
7.67
Shots allowedContext
8.67
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
4.50
BlocksContext
2.67
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.33
50%
Save rateContext
44%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
517
PassesContext
363
459
Accurate passesContext
287
89%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.00
FoulsContext
14.67
12.67
Fouls sufferedContext
12.33
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.67
0.33
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.28
xGVia Att/Def
1.26
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.66
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
80%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.70
ShotsContext
10.80
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
36%
On target shareContext
39%
8.00
Shots in the boxContext
6.20
64%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
15%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.43
11.00
Shots allowedContext
11.90
3.75
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.86
BlocksContext
3.38
2.57
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
64%
Save rateContext
63%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
513
PassesContext
384
455
Accurate passesContext
314
89%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.84
12.10
FoulsContext
11.80
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,079 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
LE Havre
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel566 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
LE Havre |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Aug | 14Ligue 1 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 566 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,079 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
6I. Doukouré
24L. Høgsberg
23M. Sarr
83R. Luis
3B. Chilwell
32V. Barco
17M. Amougou
7Diego Moreira
80F. Lemaréchal
9J. Panichelli
LE Havre
Confirmed XI
99M. Diaw(G)
18Y. Zouaoui
4G. Lloris
93A. Sangante
7L. Nego
94A. Touré
45I. Soumaré
14R. Ndiaye
8Y. Kechta
13F. Doucouré
70M. Samatta
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Absences are shown before kick-off
LE Havre
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- LE Havre+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
LE Havre · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | LE Havre |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | L 2–3 A | L 1–3 A |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 Strasbourg wins0 draws2 LE Havre wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.75
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 17 May 2025Strasbourg2–3LE Havre
- 15 Dec 2024LE Havre0–3Strasbourg
- 4 May 2024LE Havre3–1Strasbourg
- 10 Dec 2023Strasbourg2–1LE Havre
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.67 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Strasbourg | LE Havre | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.33 | 3.67 | 2.86 |
| Over 1.5 | 33% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 100% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 67% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 67% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 7.00 | 10.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.34 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 3/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Strasbourg | LE Havre | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.57 | |
| Match total | 9.20 | 8.28 | 10.81 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 2.90 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Willy Delajod France · 89 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.58
Red cards0.26league 0.39
Cards 5+42%league 42%
Fouls25.1league 23.6
Penalties0.38league 0.48
Home wins45%league 68%
Strasbourg10 with this referee
Record5-1-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.9
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds2
- W25 Jan 25H · Lille2–14
- W29 Sep 24H · Marseille1–02
- W13 Apr 24H · Reims3–11
- L10 Feb 24A · Lens1–31
- L2 Apr 23A · Monaco3–41
LE Havre5 with this referee
Record0-1-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L10 May 25H · Marseille1–32
- L13 Apr 25H · Rennes1–52
- L1 Dec 24H · Angers0–12
- L16 Aug 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–43
- D27 Apr 24A · Paris Saint Germain3–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg3 games · scored 4 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
LE Havre3 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
1
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 15 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2
5
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
