Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Marseille were the stronger side on L90 Strength (56 vs 48). Strasbourg had 5.2 days of rest, Marseille 4 and had to travel 616 km.
Away travel616 kmRest days5.2 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 2
Strasbourg38%
Draw27%
Marseille35%
Strasbourg39%
Draw27%
Marseille34%
Strasbourg39%
Draw27%
Marseille34%
Strasbourg31%
Draw26%
Marseille42%
Strasbourg39%
Draw27%
Marseille34%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceJeremie Pignard
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.35
- Matches 85
Team strength
Strasbourg
Marseille
48
L90 StrengthIn forecast
56
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
47
40
AttackIn forecast
48
37
DefenceIn forecast
46
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMarseille
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgMarseille
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.58
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
100%
Scored inContext
60%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.60
ShotsContext
12.20
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
40%
On target shareContext
31%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
73%
Box shareContext
69%
15%
ConversionContext
16%
1.80
OffsidesContext
1.25
10.20
Shots allowedContext
10.60
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.25
BlocksContext
3.25
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
69%
Save rateContext
80%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
483
PassesContext
539
424
Accurate passesContext
481
88%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.88
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.80
FoulsContext
12.80
12.80
Fouls sufferedContext
9.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.40
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.34
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.21
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.33
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
+0.64
90%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.10
ShotsContext
13.70
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
38%
On target shareContext
37%
7.89
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
69%
Box shareContext
70%
14%
ConversionContext
17%
1.89
OffsidesContext
1.71
10.90
Shots allowedContext
11.40
3.38
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
4.14
BlocksContext
2.67
2.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.89
60%
Save rateContext
76%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
493
PassesContext
531
435
Accurate passesContext
472
88%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.91
Team ratingContext
7.07
11.90
FoulsContext
12.00
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.40
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km794 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Marseille
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel616 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Marseille |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 4Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 616 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 794 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.9 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
3B. Chilwell
23M. Sarr
24L. Høgsberg
22G. Doué
6I. Doukouré
32V. Barco
7Diego Moreira
80F. Lemaréchal
16K. Páez
10E. Emegha
Marseille
Confirmed XI
1G. Rulli(G)
32F. Medina
21N. Aguerd
5L. Balerdi
62A. Murillo
23P. Højbjerg
17M. O'Riley
22T. Weah
8A. Gomes
14Igor Paixão
9A. Gouiri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Marseille
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg-0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Marseille+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Marseille · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | W 3–2 A | W 5–2 H |
| Points | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
1 Strasbourg wins5 draws2 Marseille wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.63
Over 2.538%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 25%
- 19 Jan 2025Marseille1–1Strasbourg
- 29 Sep 2024Strasbourg1–0Marseille
- 12 Jan 2024Marseille1–1Strasbourg
- 25 Nov 2023Strasbourg1–1Marseille
- 12 Mar 2023Marseille2–2Strasbourg
- 29 Oct 2022Strasbourg2–2Marseille
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Strasbourg | Marseille | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.80 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.20 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 8.60 | 10.25 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.40 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 5/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Strasbourg | Marseille | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 5.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.80 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.70 | 9.78 | 9.83 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.60 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jeremie Pignard France · 85 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.28league 3.67
Red cards0.29league 0.38
Cards 5+52%league 38%
Fouls22.5league 24.0
Penalties0.35league 0.53
Home wins45%league 67%
Strasbourg9 with this referee
Record3-4-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D12 Apr 25H · Nice2–21
- W16 Mar 24A · Nantes3–13
- D7 Dec 23A · Stade Brestois 291–10
- D12 Mar 23A · Marseille2–24
- L14 Oct 22H · Lille0–33
Marseille13 with this referee
Record8-3-2
Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.4
Pens for · against6 · 2
Reds4
- L15 Aug 25A · Rennes0–13
- W17 May 25H · Rennes4–23
- W6 Apr 25H · Toulouse3–22
- D24 Apr 24H · Nice2–22
- W25 Feb 24H · Montpellier4–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg5 games · scored 8 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Marseille5 games · scored 10 · conceded 4
2
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 16 · conceded 13
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
Marseille10 games · scored 23 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
5
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
6
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
