Strasbourg vs Nantes – 24 Aug 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 24 · 16:15 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg 7th · 3 pts · 1 played W

1–0Full time

Nantes 14th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Strasbourg were slight favourites.

Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 24). Strasbourg usually keep the ball (55% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Strasbourg had 7 days of rest, Nantes 6.9 and had to travel 709 km.

Away travel709 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Strasbourg59%

Draw23%

Nantes17%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.91

Strasbourg58%

Draw23%

Nantes18%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.95

Strasbourg59%

Draw23%

Nantes17%

Expected goals 1.86 – 0.91

Strasbourg52%

Draw26%

Nantes23%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.02

Strasbourg59%

Draw23%

Nantes18%

Expected goals 1.88 – 0.95

Over 2.5 52% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Strasbourg)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.35
Matches 69

Team strength

Strasbourg

Nantes

46 L90 StrengthIn forecast 24

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 19

40 AttackIn forecast 24

37 DefenceIn forecast 45

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nantes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Strasbourg

Nantes

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.26 xGVia Att/Def 0.80

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62

+0.34 Goals minus xGContext +0.30

80% Scored inContext 70%

40% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.90 ShotsContext 8.10

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

38% On target shareContext 30%

7.89 Shots in the boxContext 4.67

61% Box shareContext 57%

13% ConversionContext 14%

2.14 OffsidesContext 1.25

12.50 Shots allowedContext 13.30

5.63 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.44

4.57 BlocksContext 3.80

4.71 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

77% Save rateContext 70%

53% PossessionIn forecast 39%

500 PassesContext 356

440 Accurate passesContext 290

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

7.10 Team ratingContext 6.95

10.90 FoulsContext 10.90

10.80 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Strasbourg

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km263 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nantes

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel709 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Strasbourg	Nantes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Aug	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	709 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	263 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1K. Johnsson(G)

6I. Doukouré 2A. Omobamidele 23M. Sarr

42A. Ouattara 29S. El Mourabet 80F. Lemaréchal 18J. Mwanga

11A. Nanasi 16K. Páez

9J. Panichelli

Nantes Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

1A. Lopes(G)

3N. Cozza 78Tylel Tati 6C. Awaziem 98K. Amian

13F. Coquelin

11B. Guirassy 8J. Lepenant 66L. Leroux 90Y. Benhattab

31M. Abdalla

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Strasbourg Absences are shown before kick-off

Nantes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Strasbourg+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Nantes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Strasbourg · Home No home games yet this season.

Nantes · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

5 Strasbourg wins2 draws1 Nantes wins

Goals per game1.75 – 0.88 Over 2.550% Both scored63% Clean sheets38% · 0%

9 Mar 2025Nantes0–1Strasbourg
27 Oct 2024Strasbourg3–1Nantes
16 Mar 2024Nantes1–3Strasbourg
6 Oct 2023Strasbourg1–2Nantes
7 May 2023Nantes0–2Strasbourg
31 Aug 2022Strasbourg1–1Nantes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Strasbourg	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.77
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	51%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

	Strasbourg	Nantes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	0.00
Conceded per game	0.00	1.00
Match goals	1.00	1.00	2.77
Over 1.5	0%	0%
Over 2.5	0%	0%	52%
Over 3.5	0%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	51%
Clean sheets	100%	0%
Failed to score	0%	100%
Games	1	1

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Strasbourg	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	2.00
Corners conceded	3.00	7.00
Match total	6.00	9.00	9.00
Over 8.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.00
Match total	4.00	2.00	3.92
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1

	Strasbourg	Nantes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.00	3.30
Corners conceded	4.30	5.90
Match total	9.30	9.20	9.00
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	20% 2/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.30
Opponent cards	1.70	2.00
Match total	3.60	4.30	3.92
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 69 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 3.29

Red cards0.23league 0.36

Cards 5+38%league 43%

Fouls24.9league 23.2

Penalties0.35league 0.29

Home wins39%league 64%

Strasbourg7 with this referee

Record2-2-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds1

D19 Jan 25A · Marseille1–13
L9 Nov 24H · Monaco1–35
W17 Dec 23A · Lorient2–12
L21 Oct 23A · Paris Saint Germain0–30
L3 Jun 23A · Lorient1–21

Nantes5 with this referee

Record1-2-2 Cards · opp.3.2 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 1

L3 Nov 24H · Marseille1–21
W31 Mar 24A · Nice2–15
D12 Aug 22H · Lille1–11
D17 Apr 22H · Angers1–14
L31 Oct 21A · Montpellier0–25

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.