Strasbourg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Strasbourg59.2%fair odds 1.69
Draw23.4%fair odds 4.27
Nantes17.4%fair odds 5.74
Expected goals1.86 – 0.91total 2.77
Likeliest score1–111.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Nantes
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Strasbourg ↓ · Nantes → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Strasbourg goals, columns Nantes goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.2%8.96
- 1–011.1%9.05
- 2–010.8%9.24
- 2–19.9%10.13
- 0–06.8%14.71
- 3–06.7%14.88
- 3–16.1%16.32
- 0–15.1%19.51
- 1–24.8%20.70
- 2–24.5%22.22
Winning margin
16.6%
Strasbourg by 3+
fair 6.02
18.4%
Strasbourg by 2
fair 5.43
24.1%
Strasbourg by 1
fair 4.14
23.4%
Draw
fair 4.27
11.5%
Nantes by 1
fair 8.67
4.4%
Nantes by 2
fair 22.67
1.5%
Nantes by 3+
fair 67.27
Goal distribution
Total goals
7%0
16%1
25%2
22%3
15%4
15%5+
Strasbourg goals
16%0
29%1
27%2
17%3
12%4+
Nantes goals
40%0
37%1
17%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg win | 59.2% | 58.5% | +0.7 pp |
| Draw | 23.4% | 23.3% | +0.1 pp |
| Nantes win | 17.4% | 18.2% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 52.5% | 53.8% | -1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.1% | 52.6% | -1.5 pp |
| Expected goals Strasbourg | 1.86 | 1.88 | -0.01 |
| Expected goals Nantes | 0.91 | 0.95 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Strasbourg win59.2%1.69
- Draw23.4%4.27
- Nantes win17.4%5.74
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw82.6%1.21
- Double chance Strasbourg or Nantes76.6%1.31
- Double chance Nantes or draw40.8%2.45
- Draw no bet Strasbourg77.2%1.29
- Draw no bet Nantes22.8%4.39
Goals
- Over 0.593.2%1.07
- Over 1.577.0%1.30
- Over 2.552.5%1.91
- Over 3.530.2%3.31
- Over 4.514.8%6.74
- Under 1.523.0%4.35
- Under 2.547.5%2.10
- Under 3.569.8%1.43
Both teams to score
- Yes51.1%1.96
- No48.9%2.05
- Yes and over 2.539.9%2.50
- Strasbourg win and yes25.8%3.88
- Draw and yes16.6%6.02
- Nantes win and yes8.7%11.48
Team goals
- Strasbourg over 0.584.5%1.18
- Strasbourg over 1.555.6%1.80
- Strasbourg over 2.528.6%3.49
- Nantes over 0.559.8%1.67
- Nantes over 1.523.2%4.31
- Nantes over 2.56.5%15.42
- Strasbourg clean sheet40.2%2.49
- Nantes clean sheet15.5%6.44
- Strasbourg win to nil33.4%3.00
- Nantes win to nil8.7%11.46
Handicap
- Strasbourg −1.535.0%2.86
- Strasbourg −2.516.6%6.02
- Nantes +1.565.0%1.54
- Nantes +2.583.4%1.20
- Nantes −1.55.9%16.95
- Strasbourg +1.594.1%1.06
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored14
Favourite won71.4%
Avg chance given to result52.8%
1X2 Brier0.404
Over 2.5 called right57.1%
BTTS called right35.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 1 | 37.4% | 100.0% |
| 40–50% | 6 | 44.9% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 2 | 52.3% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 69.9% | 100.0% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 75.6% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 90.5% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 0 of 14 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | — | — |
| Avg chance given to result | — | — |
| Favourite won | — | — |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off.
No verified pre-match bookmaker odds are available for comparison yet.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 14 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.