Strasbourg vs Nice – 4 Apr 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 28 Sat, Apr 4 · 16:00 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg 8th · 40 pts · 27 played WDDDW

3–1Full time

Nice 15th · 27 pts · 27 played DLLWL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Strasbourg were clear favourites.

Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Strasbourg. Strasbourg had 12.8 days of rest, Nice 13.8 and had to travel 544 km.

Away travel544 kmRest days12.8 · 13.8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Strasbourg64%

Draw21%

Nice15%

Expected goals 2.14 – 0.96

Strasbourg59%

Draw23%

Nice18%

Expected goals 1.89 – 0.94

Strasbourg63%

Draw21%

Nice16%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.97

Strasbourg56%

Draw23%

Nice21%

Expected goals 1.91 – 1.08

Strasbourg63%

Draw21%

Nice16%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.97

Over 2.5 60% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Strasbourg)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceThomas Leonard

Cards per match 3.8
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 87

Team strength

Strasbourg

Nice

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 28

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

40 AttackIn forecast 26

37 DefenceIn forecast 35

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Strasbourg

Nice

1.59 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.19

1.22 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.93

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.69

+0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.00

81% Scored inContext 67%

33% Clean sheetsContext 15%

10.89 ShotsContext 10.78

4.65 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.96

41% On target shareContext 37%

7.77 Shots in the boxContext 6.92

70% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 11%

1.91 OffsidesContext 2.00

11.44 Shots allowedContext 14.52

4.31 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.31

3.14 BlocksContext 3.96

3.08 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

71% Save rateContext 65%

53% PossessionIn forecast 47%

510 PassesContext 416

451 Accurate passesContext 347

88% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.26 FoulsContext 12.19

12.33 Fouls sufferedContext 11.37

1.85 Yellow cardsContext 2.19

0.15 Red cardsContext 0.07

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.22

1.07 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext -0.12

80% Scored inContext 40%

20% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.70 ShotsContext 10.60

5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.70

44% On target shareContext 35%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

67% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 10%

3.29 OffsidesContext 2.43

13.50 Shots allowedContext 13.90

4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.11

3.33 BlocksContext 3.10

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.63

75% Save rateContext 66%

54% PossessionIn forecast 46%

480 PassesContext 407

421 Accurate passesContext 332

88% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.81 Team ratingContext 6.71

10.90 FoulsContext 11.60

11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Strasbourg

Rest12.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,418 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Nice

Rest13.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel544 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Strasbourg	Nice
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	12.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Mar	13.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	544 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,418 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	15	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

39M. Penders(G)

3B. Chilwell 6I. Doukouré 2A. Omobamidele 22G. Doué

8M. Oyedele 29S. El Mourabet

20B. Godo 11A. Nanasi 80Gessime Yassine

19J. Enciso

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Nice Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

80Y. Diouf(G)

26M. Bard 28A. Bah 33A. Mendy 92J. Clauss

6H. Boudaoui 8M. Sanson

10S. Diop 21I. Jansson 20T. Louchet

11S. Wahi

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Strasbourg Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Nice Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Strasbourg+0.5 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Nice-0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Strasbourg · Home 1.85points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 7-3-3
Scored: 1.62
Conceded: 0.69

Nice · Away 0.77points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-9
Scored: 1.15
Conceded: 2.08

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Strasbourg	Nice
Nantes	W 3–2 AW 1–0 H	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H
Paris FC	D 0–0 HW 3–2 A	L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Auxerre	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	W 3–1 H
Lens	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Lyon	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 AW 3–2 H
Marseille	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	L 1–5 H
LE Havre	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	L 1–3 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 1–2 HD 3–3 A	L 0–4 HL 0–1 A
Lille	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H	W 2–0 H
Metz	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A	L 1–2 A
Lorient	D 0–0 H	D 3–3 HL 1–3 A
Toulouse	L 0–1 A	L 1–5 AL 0–1 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 1–2 H	D 2–2 HL 1–4 A
Rennes	L 1–4 A	L 0–4 HW 2–1 A
Angers	W 5–0 H	W 2–0 AL 0–1 H
Monaco	L 2–3 A	D 0–0 HD 2–2 A
Points	39 of 78 · 1.50 per game	26 of 78 · 1.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Strasbourg wins4 draws3 Nice wins

Goals per game1.22 – 1.22 Over 2.544% Both scored56% Clean sheets33% · 22%

3 Jan 2026Nice1–1Strasbourg
12 Apr 2025Strasbourg2–2Nice
24 Nov 2024Nice2–1Strasbourg
28 Apr 2024Strasbourg1–3Nice
3 Sep 2023Nice2–0Strasbourg
13 May 2023Strasbourg2–0Nice

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Strasbourg	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.59	1.19
Conceded per game	1.22	1.93
Match goals	2.81	3.11	3.10
Over 1.5	70%	78%
Over 2.5	59%	56%	60%
Over 3.5	33%	48%
Both teams scored	59%	56%	55%
Clean sheets	33%	15%
Failed to score	19%	33%
Games	27	27

	Strasbourg	Nice	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.10
Conceded per game	1.20	1.80
Match goals	2.90	2.90	3.10
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	50%	60%
Over 3.5	40%	50%
Both teams scored	80%	30%	55%
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Strasbourg	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	3.84	4.73
Corners conceded	4.36	5.73
Match total	8.20	10.46	9.09
Over 8.5	48% 12/25	77% 20/26
Over 9.5	28% 7/25	69% 18/26
Over 10.5	24% 6/25	50% 13/26
Cards
Cards	2.07	2.30
Opponent cards	1.96	2.00
Match total	4.03	4.30	3.99
Over 3.5	70% 19/27	63% 17/27
Over 4.5	33% 9/27	37% 10/27

	Strasbourg	Nice	League
Corners
Corners won	4.40	4.90
Corners conceded	5.30	5.60
Match total	9.70	10.50	9.09
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Cards
Cards	1.80	2.50
Opponent cards	2.30	2.30
Match total	4.10	4.80	3.99
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Leonard France · 87 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.59league 3.70

Red cards0.25league 0.28

Cards 5+41%league 37%

Fouls24.1league 23.8

Penalties0.25league 0.37

Home wins39%league 48%

Strasbourg5 with this referee

Record0-1-4 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

L2 Nov 25A · Rennes1–41
D8 Dec 24H · Reims0–01
L30 Aug 24A · Lyon3–42
L28 Apr 24H · Nice1–32
L18 Feb 24H · Lorient1–34

Nice9 with this referee

Record3-1-5 Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8 Pens for · against3 · 0 Reds2

L15 Feb 26A · Lyon0–21
L16 Aug 25H · Toulouse0–12
D2 Feb 25A · Toulouse1–12
W20 Sep 24H · Saint Etienne8–00
W28 Apr 24A · Strasbourg3–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.