Strasbourg vs Paris FC – 15 Mar 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 26 Sun, Mar 15 · 14:00 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg 9th · 36 pts · 25 played LDWDD

0–0Full time

Paris FC 13th · 27 pts · 25 played DLDWD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Strasbourg were clear favourites.

Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (53 vs 18). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Strasbourg. Strasbourg had 7.8 days of rest, Paris FC 6.8 and had to travel 397 km.

Away travel397 kmRest days7.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Strasbourg72%

Draw17%

Paris FC10%

Expected goals 2.46 – 0.84

Strasbourg68%

Draw20%

Paris FC12%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.82

Strasbourg71%

Draw18%

Paris FC11%

Expected goals 2.39 – 0.85

Strasbourg65%

Draw20%

Paris FC15%

Expected goals 2.19 – 0.94

Strasbourg72%

Draw17%

Paris FC11%

Expected goals 2.43 – 0.84

Over 2.5 64% Both score 52% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Strasbourg)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBenoît Millot

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 85

Team strength

Strasbourg

Paris FC

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 18

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

40 AttackIn forecast 46

37 DefenceIn forecast 38

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Paris FC

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Strasbourg

Paris FC

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.16

1.24 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.64

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.17 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.57

+0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.03

84% Scored inContext 72%

32% Clean sheetsContext 24%

10.76 ShotsContext 11.24

4.54 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.60

41% On target shareContext 32%

7.67 Shots in the boxContext 7.12

70% Box shareContext 63%

15% ConversionContext 10%

1.95 OffsidesContext 2.60

11.36 Shots allowedContext 11.72

4.21 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.84

3.26 BlocksContext 3.65

2.96 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.65

70% Save rateContext 67%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

506 PassesContext 486

447 Accurate passesContext 417

88% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.75

11.04 FoulsContext 10.68

12.12 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.16 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 25 and 25 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80

1.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.61 xGVia Att/Def 1.00

1.27 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.67

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

90% Scored inContext 60%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.40 ShotsContext 9.50

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50

46% On target shareContext 37%

7.78 Shots in the boxContext 5.50

66% Box shareContext 58%

15% ConversionContext 8%

2.86 OffsidesContext 2.50

14.30 Shots allowedContext 12.70

4.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

3.22 BlocksContext 3.89

3.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70

74% Save rateContext 68%

52% PossessionIn forecast 49%

471 PassesContext 459

411 Accurate passesContext 387

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.85 Team ratingContext 6.71

10.80 FoulsContext 10.00

10.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 2.40

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Strasbourg

Rest7.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km643 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Paris FC

Rest6.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel397 km791 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Strasbourg	Paris FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 7 Mar	6.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 8 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	397 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	643 km	791 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7.2	7.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

39M. Penders(G)

3B. Chilwell 2A. Omobamidele 22G. Doué 42A. Ouattara

29S. El Mourabet 32V. Barco

20B. Godo 19J. Enciso 80Gessime Yassine

9J. Panichelli

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Paris FC Confirmed XI

4-3-3

35K. Trapp(G)

19N. Sangui 5M. Mbow 42D. Coppola 17Adama Camara

23R. Matondo 33P. Lees-Melou 18M. Munetsi

27M. Simon 36C. Immobile 93N. Ikoné

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Strasbourg Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Paris FC Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Strasbourg+1.3 pp
Draw-0.7 pp
Paris FC-0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Strasbourg · Home 1.92points per game · 12 home games

W-D-L: 7-2-3
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 0.75

Paris FC · Away 1.08points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 3-5-5
Scored: 1.08
Conceded: 1.46

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Strasbourg	Paris FC
Auxerre	D 0–0 AW 3–0 H	D 0–0 AD 1–1 H
Lens	D 1–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–5 HL 1–2 A
Lyon	W 3–1 HL 1–2 A	D 1–1 AD 3–3 H
Marseille	D 2–2 AL 1–2 H	D 2–2 HL 2–5 A
LE Havre	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 A
Paris Saint Germain	L 1–2 HD 3–3 A	L 1–2 A
Lille	W 4–1 AW 2–0 H	L 2–4 A
Metz	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A	W 3–2 H
Nice	D 1–1 A	W 1–0 HD 1–1 A
Lorient	D 0–0 H	W 2–0 H
Toulouse	L 0–1 A	D 1–1 AL 0–3 H
Stade Brestois 29	L 1–2 H	W 2–1 A
Rennes	L 1–4 A	L 0–1 H
Angers	W 5–0 H	D 0–0 HL 0–1 A
Monaco	L 2–3 A	W 1–0 A
Nantes	W 1–0 H	W 2–1 AL 1–2 H
Points	33 of 72 · 1.38 per game	27 of 72 · 1.13 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings

1 Strasbourg wins0 draws0 Paris FC wins

Goals per game3.00 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

21 Sep 2025Paris FC2–3Strasbourg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Strasbourg	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.16
Conceded per game	1.24	1.64
Match goals	2.84	2.80	3.30
Over 1.5	72%	72%
Over 2.5	60%	52%	64%
Over 3.5	32%	28%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	32%	24%
Failed to score	16%	28%
Games	25	25

	Strasbourg	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.80
Conceded per game	1.10	1.50
Match goals	2.60	2.30	3.30
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	60%	50%	64%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	20%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Strasbourg	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	3.57	4.16
Corners conceded	4.43	5.20
Match total	8.00	9.36	9.14
Over 8.5	48% 11/23	52% 13/25
Over 9.5	26% 6/23	48% 12/25
Over 10.5	22% 5/23	28% 7/25
Cards
Cards	2.04	2.12
Opponent cards	2.00	1.72
Match total	4.04	3.84	4.01
Over 3.5	72% 18/25	52% 13/25
Over 4.5	32% 8/25	36% 9/25

	Strasbourg	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	3.78	3.60
Corners conceded	5.89	5.30
Match total	9.67	8.90	9.14
Over 8.5	89% 8/9	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.90	2.50
Opponent cards	2.30	1.60
Match total	4.20	4.10	4.01
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Benoît Millot France · 85 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.64league 3.72

Red cards0.27league 0.28

Cards 5+38%league 36%

Fouls25.4league 23.9

Penalties0.25league 0.38

Home wins44%league 49%

Strasbourg8 with this referee

Record3-3-2 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9 Pens for · against1 · 1

W16 Feb 25A · Lens2–02
L21 Apr 24A · Lille0–13
D28 Jan 24A · Clermont Foot1–13
W10 Dec 23H · LE Havre2–13
L2 Jan 23H · Estac Troyes2–31

Paris FC4 with this referee

Record2-1-1 Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3 Pens for · against0 · 2

D21 Feb 26A · Toulouse1–15
W18 Jan 26A · Nantes2–13
L23 Nov 25A · Lille2–41
W3 Oct 25H · Lorient2–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.