Strasbourg
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Strasbourg72.5%fair odds 1.38
Draw17.1%fair odds 5.85
Paris FC10.4%fair odds 9.58
Expected goals2.46 – 0.84total 3.30
Likeliest score2–011.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Paris FC
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Strasbourg ↓ · Paris FC → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Strasbourg goals, columns Paris FC goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.2%8.97
- 2–19.4%10.66
- 3–09.1%10.94
- 1–08.7%11.54
- 1–18.0%12.45
- 3–17.7%13.01
- 4–05.6%17.80
- 4–14.7%21.17
- 0–04.1%24.42
- 2–23.9%25.35
Winning margin
29.4%
Strasbourg by 3+
fair 3.40
21.1%
Strasbourg by 2
fair 4.73
21.9%
Strasbourg by 1
fair 4.57
17.1%
Draw
fair 5.85
7.2%
Paris FC by 1
fair 13.84
2.5%
Paris FC by 2
fair 40.45
0.7%
Paris FC by 3+
fair 136.09
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
20%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Strasbourg goals
9%0
21%1
26%2
21%3
23%4+
Paris FC goals
43%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg win | 72.5% | 72.0% | +0.5 pp |
| Draw | 17.1% | 17.4% | -0.3 pp |
| Paris FC win | 10.4% | 10.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 63.3% | +0.8 pp |
| Both teams score | 52.4% | 52.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Strasbourg | 2.46 | 2.43 | +0.03 |
| Expected goals Paris FC | 0.84 | 0.84 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Strasbourg win72.5%1.38
- Draw17.1%5.85
- Paris FC win10.4%9.58
- Double chance Strasbourg or draw89.6%1.12
- Double chance Strasbourg or Paris FC82.9%1.21
- Double chance Paris FC or draw27.5%3.63
- Draw no bet Strasbourg87.4%1.14
- Draw no bet Paris FC12.6%7.95
Goals
- Over 0.595.9%1.04
- Over 1.584.5%1.18
- Over 2.564.0%1.56
- Over 3.542.0%2.38
- Over 4.523.7%4.21
- Under 1.515.5%6.47
- Under 2.536.0%2.78
- Under 3.558.0%1.72
Both teams to score
- Yes52.4%1.91
- No47.6%2.10
- Yes and over 2.544.4%2.25
- Strasbourg win and yes33.4%2.99
- Draw and yes13.0%7.68
- Paris FC win and yes6.0%16.75
Team goals
- Strasbourg over 0.591.4%1.09
- Strasbourg over 1.570.4%1.42
- Strasbourg over 2.544.5%2.24
- Paris FC over 0.556.9%1.76
- Paris FC over 1.520.6%4.85
- Paris FC over 2.55.4%18.69
- Strasbourg clean sheet43.1%2.32
- Paris FC clean sheet8.6%11.69
- Strasbourg win to nil39.0%2.56
- Paris FC win to nil4.5%22.41
Handicap
- Strasbourg −1.550.6%1.98
- Strasbourg −2.529.4%3.40
- Paris FC +1.549.4%2.02
- Paris FC +2.570.6%1.42
- Paris FC −1.53.2%31.18
- Strasbourg +1.596.8%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Ligue 1 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored229
Favourite won55.5%
Avg chance given to result42.4%
1X2 Brier0.573
Over 2.5 called right54.1%
BTTS called right53.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 35 | 38.0% | 51.4% |
| 40–50% | 70 | 44.9% | 45.7% |
| 50–60% | 57 | 54.3% | 50.9% |
| 60–70% | 37 | 64.2% | 70.3% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 74.2% | 68.2% |
| 80%+ | 8 | 87.4% | 87.5% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 180 of 229 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5938 | 0.5850 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.4% | 41.2% |
| Favourite won | 51.7% | 53.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 180 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 229 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.