Strasbourg
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Strasbourg were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Strasbourg. Strasbourg had 15 days of rest, Rennes 7.8 and had to travel 698 km.
Away travel698 kmRest days15 · 7.8Matches / 14d0 · 1
Strasbourg53%
Draw23%
Rennes23%
Strasbourg46%
Draw26%
Rennes27%
Strasbourg52%
Draw24%
Rennes24%
Strasbourg45%
Draw25%
Rennes30%
Strasbourg53%
Draw24%
Rennes23%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Strasbourg)
No weather data yet
RefereeRuddy Buquet
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 74
Team strength
Strasbourg
Rennes
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
50
45
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
40
AttackIn forecast
63
37
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
StrasbourgRennes
1.64
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.69
1.21
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.41
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.43
1.14
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.41
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
82%
Scored inContext
79%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
11.07
ShotsContext
13.21
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.76
41%
On target shareContext
36%
8.04
Shots in the boxContext
8.29
71%
Box shareContext
61%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
1.88
OffsidesContext
2.46
11.32
Shots allowedContext
12.17
4.26
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.66
3.18
BlocksContext
3.79
3.04
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.73
71%
Save rateContext
72%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
512
PassesContext
477
453
Accurate passesContext
407
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.87
11.11
FoulsContext
11.97
12.43
Fouls sufferedContext
11.66
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
1.66
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.64
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
0.93
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.60
70%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
12.20
ShotsContext
13.50
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
44%
On target shareContext
37%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
72%
Box shareContext
63%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.56
OffsidesContext
2.70
12.80
Shots allowedContext
10.30
4.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.10
3.50
BlocksContext
3.00
3.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.38
78%
Save rateContext
76%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
518
PassesContext
512
456
Accurate passesContext
435
88%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.10
FoulsContext
12.30
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.60
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Strasbourg
Rest15 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel698 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Strasbourg |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 15Ligue 1 2025-2026, 4 Apr | 7.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 11 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 698 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Strasbourg
Confirmed XI
39M. Penders(G)
83R. Luis
24L. Høgsberg
18J. Mwanga
45A. Cisse
34I. Sabaly
8M. Oyedele
11A. Nanasi
27S. Amo-Ameyaw
80Gessime Yassine
15D. Fofana
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
26Q. Merlin
3L. Brassier
48A. Aït Boudlal
36A. Seidu
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
45M. Camara
17S. Szymański
10L. Blas
7B. Embolo
9E. Lepaul
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Strasbourg
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Strasbourg+0.8 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Rennes-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Strasbourg · Home
1.93points per game · 14 home games
- W-D-L
- 8-3-3
- Scored
- 1.71
- Conceded
- 0.71
Rennes · Away
1.57points per game · 14 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-4
- Scored
- 1.64
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Strasbourg | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | W 3–1 HD 1–1 A | W 4–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Nantes | W 3–2 AW 1–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Paris FC | D 0–0 HW 3–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Auxerre | D 0–0 AW 3–0 H | W 3–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Lens | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Lyon | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Marseille | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| LE Havre | L 1–2 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 1–2 HD 3–3 A | W 3–1 HL 0–5 A |
| Lille | W 4–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A |
| Metz | W 2–1 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A |
| Lorient | D 0–0 H | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Toulouse | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–2 H | W 4–3 AW 3–1 H |
| Angers | W 5–0 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Monaco | L 2–3 A | L 0–4 AW 4–1 H |
| Points | 43 of 81 · 1.59 per game | 47 of 84 · 1.68 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Strasbourg wins1 draws5 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.11 – 1.67
Over 2.556%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets11% · 33%
- 2 Nov 2025Rennes4–1Strasbourg
- 2 Feb 2025Rennes1–0Strasbourg
- 25 Aug 2024Strasbourg3–1Rennes
- 31 Mar 2024Strasbourg2–0Rennes
- 29 Oct 2023Rennes1–1Strasbourg
- 1 Feb 2023Rennes3–0Strasbourg
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Strasbourg | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.64 | 1.69 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.21 | 1.41 | |
| Match goals | 2.86 | 3.10 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 61% | 66% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 36% | 52% | |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 55% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 21% | |
| Games | 28 | 29 |
| Strasbourg | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 3.30 | 3.09 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Strasbourg | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.85 | 5.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.54 | 4.31 | |
| Match total | 8.39 | 9.90 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 13/26 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 8/26 | 52% 15/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 7/26 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.79 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.93 | 2.28 | |
| Match total | 3.93 | 4.07 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 19/28 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 4.5 | 32% 9/28 | 45% 13/29 | |
| Strasbourg | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.80 | 3.60 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.00 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.90 | 3.94 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ruddy Buquet 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.84league 3.66
Red cards0.39league 0.27
Cards 5+42%league 35%
Fouls23.8league 23.8
Penalties0.34league 0.36
Home wins41%league 48%
Strasbourg11 with this referee
Record2-4-5
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W22 Feb 26H · Lyon3–11
- W29 Oct 25H · Auxerre3–01
- D7 Apr 24A · Toulouse0–00
- L2 Feb 24H · Paris Saint Germain1–23
- L20 Aug 23A · Monaco0–31
Rennes8 with this referee
Record5-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 3.1
Pens for · against3 · 1
- L31 Jan 26A · Monaco0–41
- W14 Sep 25H · Lyon3–12
- W4 May 24A · Metz3–23
- W26 Nov 23H · Reims3–12
- W1 Oct 23H · Nantes3–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Strasbourg28 games · scored 46 · conceded 34
3
5
0-15
8
4
16-30
9
2
31-45
7
10
46-60
8
2
61-75
11
11
76-90
Rennes29 games · scored 49 · conceded 41
5
6
0-15
14
1
16-30
5
7
31-45
9
8
46-60
6
9
61-75
10
10
76-90
Strasbourg10 games · scored 17 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 19 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
6
16-30
3
2
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
