Strasbourg vs Stade Brestois 29 – 30 Nov 2025

Ligue 1 Gameweek 14 Sun, Nov 30 · 14:00 Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg

Strasbourg 7th · 22 pts · 13 played LWLWL

1–2Full time

Stade Brestois 29 14th · 13 pts · 13 played LLDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Strasbourg were slight favourites.

Strasbourg were the stronger side on L90 Strength (51 vs 37). Strasbourg had 7.9 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 6.9 and had to travel 901 km.

Away travel901 kmRest days7.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Strasbourg54%

Draw25%

Stade Brestois 2922%

Expected goals 1.75 – 1.03

Strasbourg53%

Draw25%

Stade Brestois 2922%

Expected goals 1.72 – 1.04

Strasbourg53%

Draw25%

Stade Brestois 2922%

Expected goals 1.71 – 1.02

Strasbourg46%

Draw26%

Stade Brestois 2927%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.15

Strasbourg53%

Draw25%

Stade Brestois 2922%

Expected goals 1.76 – 1.05

Over 2.5 53% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Strasbourg)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceBastien Dechepy

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 75

Team strength

Strasbourg

Stade Brestois 29

51 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

45 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

40 AttackIn forecast 47

37 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Strasbourg

Attack—

Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Strasbourg

Stade Brestois 29

1.85 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31

1.31 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.77

1.70 xGVia Att/Def 1.54

1.21 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.40

+0.15 Goals minus xGContext -0.23

92% Scored inContext 54%

46% Clean sheetsContext 23%

10.92 ShotsContext 12.46

4.31 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.85

39% On target shareContext 31%

8.08 Shots in the boxContext 8.38

73% Box shareContext 69%

17% ConversionContext 11%

1.75 OffsidesContext 1.67

10.69 Shots allowedContext 12.08

4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.83

3.27 BlocksContext 3.58

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

71% Save rateContext 62%

50% PossessionIn forecast 45%

489 PassesContext 382

427 Accurate passesContext 306

87% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.77 FoulsContext 12.23

13.46 Fouls sufferedContext 10.38

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.54

0.23 Red cardsContext 0.08

This league season, per match · 13 and 13 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.91 xGVia Att/Def 1.62

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.20

+0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.32

90% Scored inContext 50%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.70 ShotsContext 12.00

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10

41% On target shareContext 34%

8.90 Shots in the boxContext 8.00

69% Box shareContext 69%

16% ConversionContext 11%

1.56 OffsidesContext 1.71

10.80 Shots allowedContext 11.20

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33

3.75 BlocksContext 2.90

2.80 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.78

70% Save rateContext 64%

54% PossessionIn forecast 45%

549 PassesContext 391

483 Accurate passesContext 316

88% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.78

11.20 FoulsContext 12.70

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 10.20

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.20 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Strasbourg

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km820 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Stade Brestois 29

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel901 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Strasbourg	Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 22 Nov	6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 23 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	901 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	820 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	1 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.2	5.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Strasbourg Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

39M. Penders(G)

23M. Sarr 2A. Omobamidele 22G. Doué

3B. Chilwell 6I. Doukouré 29S. El Mourabet 27S. Amo-Ameyaw

19J. Enciso 16K. Páez

9J. Panichelli

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30G. Coudert(G)

27D. Guindo 4M. Diaz 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

99P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo

19L. Ajorque

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Strasbourg Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Stade Brestois 29 Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Strasbourg+0.9 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Stade Brestois 29-0.5 pp

Home / Away this season

Strasbourg · Home 2.50points per game · 6 home games

W-D-L: 5-0-1
Scored: 2.17
Conceded: 0.33

Stade Brestois 29 · Away 0.67points per game · 6 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-4
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 10 this season

Opponent	Strasbourg	Stade Brestois 29
Lens	L 0–1 A	L 1–3 A
Lille	W 2–0 H	D 3–3 H
Lyon	L 1–2 A	D 0–0 H
Paris Saint Germain	D 3–3 A	L 0–3 H
Angers	W 5–0 H	W 2–0 A
Marseille	L 1–2 H	L 0–3 A
Paris FC	W 3–2 A	L 1–2 H
LE Havre	W 1–0 H	L 0–1 A
Nantes	W 1–0 H	D 0–0 H
Metz	W 1–0 A	W 3–2 H
Points	19 of 30 · 1.90 per game	9 of 30 · 0.90 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings

2 Strasbourg wins3 draws3 Stade Brestois 29 wins

Goals per game0.88 – 1.25 Over 2.538% Both scored50% Clean sheets25% · 38%

23 Feb 2025Strasbourg0–0Stade Brestois 29
30 Nov 2024Stade Brestois 293–1Strasbourg
24 Feb 2024Strasbourg0–3Stade Brestois 29
7 Dec 2023Stade Brestois 291–1Strasbourg
5 Mar 2023Strasbourg0–1Stade Brestois 29
4 Sep 2022Stade Brestois 291–1Strasbourg

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Strasbourg	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.85	1.31
Conceded per game	1.31	1.77
Match goals	3.15	3.08	2.78
Over 1.5	69%	77%
Over 2.5	62%	62%	53%
Over 3.5	38%	38%
Both teams scored	46%	46%	54%
Clean sheets	46%	23%
Failed to score	8%	46%
Games	13	13

	Strasbourg	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	1.30
Conceded per game	1.40	1.50
Match goals	3.40	2.80	2.78
Over 1.5	80%	70%
Over 2.5	70%	60%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	40%	30%
Failed to score	10%	50%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Strasbourg	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	3.00	4.62
Corners conceded	4.15	5.00
Match total	7.15	9.62	9.39
Over 8.5	23% 3/13	38% 5/13
Over 9.5	15% 2/13	38% 5/13
Over 10.5	15% 2/13	38% 5/13
Cards
Cards	2.38	1.62
Opponent cards	1.77	1.46
Match total	4.15	3.08	4.12
Over 3.5	77% 10/13	38% 5/13
Over 4.5	31% 4/13	23% 3/13

	Strasbourg	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	2.33	4.80
Corners conceded	4.33	4.60
Match total	6.66	9.40	9.39
Over 8.5	33% 3/9	30% 3/10
Over 9.5	0% 0/9	30% 3/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.40
Opponent cards	1.80	1.70
Match total	4.00	3.10	4.12
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastien Dechepy France · 75 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.72league 3.78

Red cards0.27league 0.31

Cards 5+37%league 37%

Fouls24.8league 24.1

Penalties0.39league 0.50

Home wins40%league 50%

Strasbourg8 with this referee

Record3-2-3 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 3 Reds1

W24 Aug 25H · Nantes1–02
D19 Jan 25A · Marseille1–13
L9 Nov 24H · Monaco1–35
W17 Dec 23A · Lorient2–12
L21 Oct 23A · Paris Saint Germain0–30

Stade Brestois 298 with this referee

Record1-4-3 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3 Pens for · against2 · 2

L14 Sep 25H · Paris FC1–20
D14 Feb 25H · Auxerre2–22
D19 Oct 24H · Rennes1–12
W21 May 23H · Clermont Foot2–13
L28 Dec 22H · Lyon2–42

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.