Sturm Graz
Attack—
Defense risk—
Sturm Graz
28th · 4 pts · 5 played
LWLDL
0–1Full time
FK Crvena Zvezda
22nd · 7 pts · 5 played
DLLWW
Our take
It was too close to call.
FK Crvena Zvezda were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 28). Sturm Graz had 13.9 days of rest, FK Crvena Zvezda 13.9 and had to travel 463 km.
Away travel463 kmRest days13.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Sturm Graz36%
Draw27%
FK Crvena Zvezda37%
Sturm Graz35%
Draw27%
FK Crvena Zvezda38%
Sturm Graz36%
Draw27%
FK Crvena Zvezda37%
Sturm Graz29%
Draw26%
FK Crvena Zvezda44%
Sturm Graz35%
Draw27%
FK Crvena Zvezda37%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Graz)
No weather data yet
RefereeDamian Sylwestrzak
- Cards per match 5.1
- Penalties per match 0.44
- Matches 34
Team strength
Sturm GrazFK Crvena Zvezda
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
42
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
42
32
AttackIn forecast
40
37
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFK Crvena Zvezda
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Sturm GrazFK Crvena Zvezda
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.72
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
-0.37
60%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
8.60
ShotsContext
11.40
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
40%
On target shareContext
30%
5.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
56%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
7%
3.33
OffsidesContext
2.40
11.80
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
2.25
BlocksContext
2.60
4.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
75%
Save rateContext
68%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
356
PassesContext
401
271
Accurate passesContext
320
76%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.78
17.80
FoulsContext
10.00
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
0.25
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
2.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.61
+0.75
Goals minus xGContext
+0.33
90%
Scored inContext
90%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
13.25
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
29%
On target shareContext
30%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.25
57%
Box shareContext
68%
9%
ConversionContext
9%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.57
12.10
Shots allowedContext
11.88
3.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.88
3.10
BlocksContext
2.63
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
58%
Save rateContext
68%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
417
PassesContext
388
324
Accurate passesContext
308
78%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.85
14.00
FoulsContext
10.88
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.38
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Sturm Graz
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,431 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
FK Crvena Zvezda
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel463 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Sturm Graz |
FK Crvena Zvezda |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 13.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 463 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,431 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 1 | 0 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 42 | 42 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Sturm Graz
Confirmed XI
1O. Christensen(G)
17E. Karić
47E. Aiwu
2J. Mitchell
23A. Malić
4J. Gorenc Stankovič
21T. Chukwuani
10O. Kiteishvili
19T. Horvat
77M. Malone
20S. Jatta
FK Crvena Zvezda
Confirmed XI
1Matheus(G)
23N. Tiknizyan
5Rodrigão
13M. Veljković
66Y. Seol
21T. Elšnik
33R. Krunić
7Milson
4M. Ivanić
20Tomás Händel
89M. Arnautović
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Sturm Graz
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FK Crvena Zvezda
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Sturm Graz+0.4 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- FK Crvena Zvezda-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Sturm Graz · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
FK Crvena Zvezda · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Sturm Graz | FK Crvena Zvezda |
|---|---|---|
| Celtic | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Sturm Graz | FK Crvena Zvezda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.80 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Sturm Graz | FK Crvena Zvezda | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 1.80 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 20% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Sturm Graz | FK Crvena Zvezda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.75 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.60 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 75% 3/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Sturm Graz | FK Crvena Zvezda | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 10.45 | 9.25 | 9.04 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.60 | 4.29 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Damian Sylwestrzak 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.82league 4.11
Red cards0.29league 0.19
Cards 5+59%league 43%
Fouls27.0league 24.6
Penalties0.44league 0.38
Home wins59%league 51%
Sturm GrazNo previous matches with this referee.
FK Crvena ZvezdaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Sturm Graz5 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
1
76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda5 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Sturm Graz10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
4
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
7
61-75
1
2
76-90
FK Crvena Zvezda10 games · scored 15 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
1
31-45
4
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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