Sturm Graz vs Rennes – 16 Sep 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 16 · 20:00 Merkur Arena, Graz

Sturm Graz

0–0Full time

Rennes

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 39). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz had 36 days of rest, Rennes 5 and had to travel 1,286 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,286 kmRest days36 · 5Matches / 14d0 · 2

Sturm Graz36%

Draw24%

Rennes40%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.58

Sturm Graz35%

Draw26%

Rennes39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.38

Sturm Graz38%

Draw24%

Rennes38%

Expected goals 1.56 – 1.55

Sturm Graz29%

Draw23%

Rennes48%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.77

Sturm Graz37%

Draw24%

Rennes39%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.57

Over 2.5 59% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Graz)

20°CClear

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 4 km/h
Humidity 73%

Referee · LithuaniaManfredas Lukjancukas

Cards per match 4.3
Penalties per match 0.30
Matches 27

Team strength

Sturm Graz

Rennes

39 L90 StrengthIn forecast 55

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

32 AttackIn forecast 63

37 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext 80

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Sturm Graz

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rennes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Sturm Graz

Rennes

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.49 xGVia Att/Def 1.84

1.37 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.97

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext +0.16

80% Scored inContext 100%

30% Clean sheetsContext 20%

16.20 ShotsContext 16.90

4.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.90

28% On target shareContext 35%

9.80 Shots in the boxContext 11.70

62% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 12%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.63

13.40 Shots allowedContext 15.10

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

2.60 BlocksContext 4.90

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.38

81% Save rateContext 70%

48% PossessionIn forecast 53%

329 PassesContext 452

250 Accurate passesContext 381

76% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.99 Team ratingContext 6.94

12.50 FoulsContext 12.40

10.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.20

1.80 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Sturm Graz

Rest36 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rennes DWWW

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,286 km220 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

Form 80 · 10 pts vs 6.0 for an average club · +3.7 vs expected

W11 SepH · Marseille1–01.6 xPts
W6 SepA · Angers2–11.7 xPts
W30 AugH · Le Mans3–22.2 xPts
D23 AugH · Paris Saint Germain2–20.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Sturm Graz	Rennes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	36UEFA Champions League 2026-2027, 11 Aug	5Ligue 1 2026-2027, 11 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,286 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	220 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	29	3

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Sturm Graz Confirmed XI

5-3-2

53D. Khudyakov(G)

27L. Balbo 30Paul-Friedrich Koller 2J. Quarshie 5A. Vallci 28Jurgen Heil

43J. Hödl 78V. Matoshi 39Luca Weinhandl

15G. Mamageishvili 26B. Beganović

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Rennes Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

30B. Samba(G)

18M. Nagida 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 14B. Reynolds

45M. Camara

11Mousa Al Ta'mari 28A. Thomasson 17S. Szymański 10L. Blas

9E. Lepaul

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Sturm Graz Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Rennes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Sturm Graz-1.8 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Rennes+1.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Sturm Graz · Home No home games yet this season.

Rennes · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Sturm Graz	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	3.07
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	59%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	62%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Sturm Graz	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.90	2.00
Conceded per game	1.10	1.50
Match goals	2.00	3.50	3.07
Over 1.5	60%	90%
Over 2.5	40%	90%	59%
Over 3.5	10%	40%
Both teams scored	20%	80%	62%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	50%	0%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Sturm Graz	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	13.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.00
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Sturm Graz	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	5.10	7.33
Corners conceded	5.50	5.22
Match total	10.60	12.55	13.50
Over 8.5	70% 7/10	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	89% 8/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	78% 7/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.50
Opponent cards	1.50	1.80
Match total	3.30	3.30	2.00
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	10% 1/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Manfredas Lukjancukas Lithuania · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.04league 2.00

Red cards0.30league 0.00

Cards 5+56%league 0%

Fouls22.7league 25.0

Penalties0.30league 0.00

Home wins56%league 50%

Sturm Graz

No previous matches with this referee.

Rennes

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.